If the adhesive connection of the stub/cap to the aluminum extruded shaft assembly fails, then the force of the cap overpowers the dimensional stability of the shaft (ie. The shaft wants to go "round" rather than remaining a hex)... Much like rounding off a thin walled wrench-socket does when using too much torque on a tough fastener...
Once this heat treated, rigid aluminum driveshaft "balloons out"... the end comes very quickly for the shaft assembly.
You can see that the shaft extrusion is ballooned-out in the photo above.. it is no longer a hex, but mostly round... That cap spun in the shaft BEFORE it tore out.
The stub/cap fractures the shaft and the track tension, pulling aft, finishes the job of tearing out the stub/cap from the shaft extrusion.
At least that's my theory.
The factory had such good luck with the Demo fleet... all had the aluminum shaft.
I personally (with the help of Phatty and Turbolover) abused this driveshaft by running the sled with a piece of log jammed in there for 30 minutes of riding.
Those shafts were hand built in a low production environment.
The production of thousands of driveshafts for consumers sleds MAY have been different.
Which is also a good reason why some people that I know that have already put on some good mileage on their 2013's have not experienced a problem.
I'm sure that the vendor that assembled/supplied these shafts is catching he!! over this right now.
I don't think the design of the shaft is poor... I think the assembly of these units that HAVE failed was done poorly.
Pic of the chunk of log that was wedged in the tunnel for 30 minutes of riding (heck.. its a demo, huh)
Well... I had a Vibration in the driveline that felt much like driver that was not meshing well with the track. For 30 minutes I rode it that way... but I thought to myself... "It's a rental".... drive it into the ground... ride it like a rented mule...I thought that I'd "break it" and show those guys in Roseau their Achilles heel... NOPE!
Well after coming back to "base" and telling Jared to "ride that sukka and tell me what you think" ... He flopped it over and found a two-hour piece of firewood wedged against the bulkhead... took some work to get it out..but we did..
That sled would stop as soon as I got off the gas...the clutches were smoking... and I was convinced that the belt drive was stripped out...
Well.. we pulled the log out and rode around... no problem and no broken belt... And we hammered that thing... I drove the same sled back 10 miles to the lodge with zero issues and no vibration.