buying fuel is the only depressing part of being retired!!!!
Here we go again. Oil prices
- Thread starter Ollie
- Start date
I wish people would finally wake up and realize that it's speculative demand from a bunch of dumb****s who think they can predict the future on wall-street.
If you guys didn't notice, there was hardley a single major or independent-major company in the last 5 years who was budgeting on $100/bbl oil.
Almost EVERYONE saw through the speculative demand charade and made their forecasts on $50/bbl oil and $5.00/mcf natural gas.
You guys sitting there *****ing and pissing and moaning about how horrible and evil the "evil oil companies" are don't even know the 1/2 of it ....
It's patently amazing to me that domestic oil and gas companies are as succesfful as they are given the completley hostile business environment they have to work in here ... foreign competitors don't have to even dream about dealing with 1/2 the **** they do here.
It's real easy to believe everything the national news outlets say ...
All I'm gonna say is, as far as everyone on here should be concerened, you all need to be doing everything you possibly can to be supporting US oil companies .... They're making your life better, not worse.
If you want cheap gas, don't vote for ****ing democrats. period.
If you guys didn't notice, there was hardley a single major or independent-major company in the last 5 years who was budgeting on $100/bbl oil.
Almost EVERYONE saw through the speculative demand charade and made their forecasts on $50/bbl oil and $5.00/mcf natural gas.
You guys sitting there *****ing and pissing and moaning about how horrible and evil the "evil oil companies" are don't even know the 1/2 of it ....
It's patently amazing to me that domestic oil and gas companies are as succesfful as they are given the completley hostile business environment they have to work in here ... foreign competitors don't have to even dream about dealing with 1/2 the **** they do here.
It's real easy to believe everything the national news outlets say ...
All I'm gonna say is, as far as everyone on here should be concerened, you all need to be doing everything you possibly can to be supporting US oil companies .... They're making your life better, not worse.
If you want cheap gas, don't vote for ****ing democrats. period.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/06/yes-weve-got-peak-oil-but-it-will-be.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/jun/10/oil
42 years of proven reserves if there is no growth, hmm thats not very long.
And according to their chart, Saudi Arabia has only dropped it's proven reserves 100 million barrels per year. So 10-11 million barrels per day results in a drop of 100 million in reserves, how many days in a year again? Or is it saying the Saudis find 3.5 billion more barrels of oil every year?
http://www.motherjones.com/economy/2009/06/goodbye-cheap-oil
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2009/06/16/hibernia-south-616.html
Hibernia South has been estimated to contain about 230 million barrels of crude oil.Wow thats a 12.8 day supply for the U.S.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395
"World crude oil, condensate and oil sands production peaked in 2008 at an average of 73.78 million barrels per day (mbd) which just exceeded the previous peak of 73.74 mbd in 2005, according to recent EIA production data. Production is expected to decline further as non OPEC oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2009 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production peaked in 2005. By 2011, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2008 peak."
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...-be3b-00144f2af8e8/The-return-of-Peak-Oil.jsp
"But Marshall Adkins, analyst at Raymond James, thinks the peak was last summer. He cites the behaviour of Saudi Arabia as evidence. The kingdom, which dominates Opec, can usually be relied upon to open the spigots in response to soaring oil prices, as it did in 2005, when oil hit $70 per barrel.
Yet last summer, Saudi Arabian output never exceeded 9.6m barrels per day, the same ceiling it reached in 2005. With massive economic and political incentive to pump as much as it could, the implication is this is actually the limit of what Saudi Arabia can supply to the world market.
There isn't much slack elsewhere. The US, Russia and North Sea producers already pump as much as they can, yet non-Opec production has still declined since 2007. Other Opec members were also pumping as much as possible last summer.
So, if everyone, including the Saudis, was flat out last summer, we have unwittingly already seen the current industry configuration operating at full capacity. And, as Mr Adkins agrees that fresh discoveries will not come onstream fast enough to offset decline rates at existing fields, we are therefore past the historical peak of daily oil supply."
I would say these are logical reasons why oil is going up in price.
I don't think we will be able to get 80 million barrels per day out of the tar sands
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/jun/10/oil
42 years of proven reserves if there is no growth, hmm thats not very long.
And according to their chart, Saudi Arabia has only dropped it's proven reserves 100 million barrels per year. So 10-11 million barrels per day results in a drop of 100 million in reserves, how many days in a year again? Or is it saying the Saudis find 3.5 billion more barrels of oil every year?
http://www.motherjones.com/economy/2009/06/goodbye-cheap-oil
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2009/06/16/hibernia-south-616.html
Hibernia South has been estimated to contain about 230 million barrels of crude oil.Wow thats a 12.8 day supply for the U.S.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395
"World crude oil, condensate and oil sands production peaked in 2008 at an average of 73.78 million barrels per day (mbd) which just exceeded the previous peak of 73.74 mbd in 2005, according to recent EIA production data. Production is expected to decline further as non OPEC oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2009 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production peaked in 2005. By 2011, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2008 peak."
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...-be3b-00144f2af8e8/The-return-of-Peak-Oil.jsp
"But Marshall Adkins, analyst at Raymond James, thinks the peak was last summer. He cites the behaviour of Saudi Arabia as evidence. The kingdom, which dominates Opec, can usually be relied upon to open the spigots in response to soaring oil prices, as it did in 2005, when oil hit $70 per barrel.
Yet last summer, Saudi Arabian output never exceeded 9.6m barrels per day, the same ceiling it reached in 2005. With massive economic and political incentive to pump as much as it could, the implication is this is actually the limit of what Saudi Arabia can supply to the world market.
There isn't much slack elsewhere. The US, Russia and North Sea producers already pump as much as they can, yet non-Opec production has still declined since 2007. Other Opec members were also pumping as much as possible last summer.
So, if everyone, including the Saudis, was flat out last summer, we have unwittingly already seen the current industry configuration operating at full capacity. And, as Mr Adkins agrees that fresh discoveries will not come onstream fast enough to offset decline rates at existing fields, we are therefore past the historical peak of daily oil supply."
I would say these are logical reasons why oil is going up in price.
I don't think we will be able to get 80 million barrels per day out of the tar sands
Don't worry. We'll build WINDMILLS and dig our way out of it!!!!!!!
.....
Pardon me while I go kill myself.
haven't you guys used most of your oil all ready? I think i read that somewhere
I agree with what you say,but at this point any kind of growth can not be sustained for very long.Here is a very interesting lecture by a professor emeritus of Physics at Univ of Colorado-Boulder on steady growth and the exponential function simple arithmetic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
Simple
America has to reduce their dependancy on fossil fuels in a BIG way. Simple as that. Then the prices will be more stable. If you drill more, the oil companies get an even stronger stranglehold on the world economy.
There is a shortage of electricity, but that can be managed by mass producing solar products. It is pricey now, but just watch, in 10 years you will see lots of solar energy used, at a reasonable price. In 20 years 1/3 of us will have an electric car in our garages. Is that so terrible?
So many people commute to work in a very predictable pattern, that it is a no brainer to go electric.
I myself do service work and drive around everywhere, hauling material...etc. I know there will always be a need for petro products.
Remember when the LCD televisions were expensive? that was 5 years ago, not that the technology has been around for a while, many more are manufacturing it, and the price dropped dramatically. Same will go with solar, or even hydrogen for that matter.
Ten minutes of solar energy that hits the earth is enough to power the globe for a year. Imagine harnessing that.
Funny how some people think that if alternative energy systems are being developed, the fossil fueled motor will be extinct. NOT TRUE. not in our lifetime.
The less fuel being used, the more abundance, thus more stable prices. Why do you think all the oil companies fund research, and buy up alternative fuel technology?? to save their bacon.... that's why.
Water vapor?? LOL
America has to reduce their dependancy on fossil fuels in a BIG way. Simple as that. Then the prices will be more stable. If you drill more, the oil companies get an even stronger stranglehold on the world economy.
There is a shortage of electricity, but that can be managed by mass producing solar products. It is pricey now, but just watch, in 10 years you will see lots of solar energy used, at a reasonable price. In 20 years 1/3 of us will have an electric car in our garages. Is that so terrible?
So many people commute to work in a very predictable pattern, that it is a no brainer to go electric.
I myself do service work and drive around everywhere, hauling material...etc. I know there will always be a need for petro products.
Remember when the LCD televisions were expensive? that was 5 years ago, not that the technology has been around for a while, many more are manufacturing it, and the price dropped dramatically. Same will go with solar, or even hydrogen for that matter.
Ten minutes of solar energy that hits the earth is enough to power the globe for a year. Imagine harnessing that.
Funny how some people think that if alternative energy systems are being developed, the fossil fueled motor will be extinct. NOT TRUE. not in our lifetime.
The less fuel being used, the more abundance, thus more stable prices. Why do you think all the oil companies fund research, and buy up alternative fuel technology?? to save their bacon.... that's why.
Water vapor?? LOL
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Ollie
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Marcuso, that is my point.
There is a better way, I don't think we have it yet.
They are working on high output solar panels and such, but again, most of those systems use batteries to store energy and then put it out at a steady amount, makes up for cloudy days or night time. The batteries are the problem with most of the electrical systems being looked at. What do you do with millions of batteries? You can't recycle all of them. I think nuclear is the way to go for general power production. Of cource there are regions of america that would be perfect for solar (areas of Arazona and Nevada come to mine), but I don't think it the answer for everything. As with any answer, it will not be "the" answer to all questions.
As for oil, we just (last year I think) found a reserve of oil that will put out 2 million barrels of oil a day for many years to come. We have VAST stores of oil that our vaunted politicians won't let us touch for one special interest reason or another.
We have to produce our own oil WHILE we come up with the right question, then and only then can we find the right answer to any given part of the right question.
There is a better way, I don't think we have it yet.
They are working on high output solar panels and such, but again, most of those systems use batteries to store energy and then put it out at a steady amount, makes up for cloudy days or night time. The batteries are the problem with most of the electrical systems being looked at. What do you do with millions of batteries? You can't recycle all of them. I think nuclear is the way to go for general power production. Of cource there are regions of america that would be perfect for solar (areas of Arazona and Nevada come to mine), but I don't think it the answer for everything. As with any answer, it will not be "the" answer to all questions.
As for oil, we just (last year I think) found a reserve of oil that will put out 2 million barrels of oil a day for many years to come. We have VAST stores of oil that our vaunted politicians won't let us touch for one special interest reason or another.
We have to produce our own oil WHILE we come up with the right question, then and only then can we find the right answer to any given part of the right question.
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Wolfrun
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We have to produce our own oil WHILE we come up with the right question, then and only then can we find the right answer to any given part of the right question.[/QUOTE]
That is exactly it Ollie, We have to produce our own oil while we find a new source of energy and in the meantime figure out how we switch over from one to the other. That won't be simple either. The present administration doesn't want to do any thing but air up our tires, not produce what we have and not look for new. It doesn't make sense to keep buying from people who hate us while we are figuring out what to do but WE HAVE TO SOMETHING, NOT STAND AND WAIT FOR SOMETHING TO FALL IN OUR LAPS. Another thing they don't seem to realize is we will always need oil for the production of plastics and lot's of other things so we can't just stop using oil.
That is exactly it Ollie, We have to produce our own oil while we find a new source of energy and in the meantime figure out how we switch over from one to the other. That won't be simple either. The present administration doesn't want to do any thing but air up our tires, not produce what we have and not look for new. It doesn't make sense to keep buying from people who hate us while we are figuring out what to do but WE HAVE TO SOMETHING, NOT STAND AND WAIT FOR SOMETHING TO FALL IN OUR LAPS. Another thing they don't seem to realize is we will always need oil for the production of plastics and lot's of other things so we can't just stop using oil.
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Supplicate
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I wouldn't say they get their cake and eat it too. They definately get a taste of it though.
When the oil market peaks, doesn't matter the price, some of those companies start spending like mad. They usually start dropping the coin on shut downs, outages, turnarounds, general maintenance, new construction, etc. Basically anything thats been waiting on the appropriate funds.
Some of these companies can afford to do this simply due to not having a very high debt load, all extra revenue in equals extra man hours on site. Others of these companies have rather large debt loads; the debt could be from doing exploration in low income times or it could simply be from operational costs in a non-producing field. You have to realize, there are a lot of fields that aren't cost effective to produce.
Now, when oil hits $70+/bbl then just about any field (including oil shale) becomes just about cost-effective, if not a money maker.
But, I'm getting off topic.
The companies with the high debt load tend to increase the man hours, but not at as high of a rate due to the debt load, whereas other companies can double or even triple the man hours.
Sure, this equates to lots of profits; but when the market crashes those profits are sent back into the system due to budgets that are set a year or more in advance.
Now, if you listen to the media about how "evil" the oil companies are you might think its all going into the shareholders hands via dividends, but quite a bit of that "profit" is generally held in reserve for the lean years. This is how you can tell an oil company that will last. Any company can survive the oilfield in a Boom, there is just too much money flying around to not be able to. Look at the Oil companies that survive the bust cycles and you'll see the ones with smart business principles.
And guess who those companies are? Thats right those same "Evil" Big Oil companies that were posting record profits.
It doesn't take a genius to make money in the Oil Industry in a boom, but it does take a very smart man to survive in the Bust.
just as an asside, take one guess at which Big Oil company had the lowest debt load going into this last Boom. Bet it'll come to you pretty quick. Why condemn people that use smart business management principles?
I dunno, it sounds like "not in my back yard" thinking.
Sure it would be nice to up production, but that is kind of backwards in human evolution. It's like curing your nicotine craving, with the patch, it goes away for a while, but some day you have to ultimately deal with it. Necessity is the mother of invention. If it the proverbial "patch" is there, we lose the drive to go forward...
I also think it is unfair for our children to have to pick up the pieces later for our procrastination.
It may be inconvenient for us all, but I believe it is necessary.
The technology is there... it's not like the wheel has to be reinvented.
As for batteries, most of the materials are recyclable, kinda like motor oils, coolants, metals, plastics. It has to have less impact than the auto salvage yards.
Sure it would be nice to up production, but that is kind of backwards in human evolution. It's like curing your nicotine craving, with the patch, it goes away for a while, but some day you have to ultimately deal with it. Necessity is the mother of invention. If it the proverbial "patch" is there, we lose the drive to go forward...
I also think it is unfair for our children to have to pick up the pieces later for our procrastination.
It may be inconvenient for us all, but I believe it is necessary.
The technology is there... it's not like the wheel has to be reinvented.
As for batteries, most of the materials are recyclable, kinda like motor oils, coolants, metals, plastics. It has to have less impact than the auto salvage yards.
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Ollie
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however the problem is, even if we went full blown solar it wouldn't work.
We don't have the infastruture to support it. The electrical grid is antique and will take YEARS to upgrade.
You say pumping oil to meet our current needs while upgrading for the future is going backwards. I call it getting your balance back so you can start marching forward again.
And yes, we need to re-envent the wheel. The one we have now is full of holes and patches. The road that wheel has been traveling down is full of pot holes.
We need people that are capable of thinking outside the box.
Like I have said before, if we can power a light bulb from a potato, we can find a new power source other than what we have now.
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Supplicate
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I suggest everyone that is pushing for the US to start tapping what reserves are left to go do some research on lifting costs of Heavy vs Light Crude. You might be -very- surprised at how much some of this will cost.
A perfect example is the Heavy Crude formation on the North Slope. Conservative estimates say that there is a reserve sitting there that is just as big as the original Slope reserve, they've been drilling straight through it for nearly 50 years now. But, they have yet to figure out how to get it out of the ground.
Some people are speculating they will go to steam injection. That will be interesting to see how they will go about injecting steam into the formation, especially when it comes to dealing with condensate and the inevitable shift from sweet to sour oil as bacteria grows due to what they are injecting.
There lies another cost, all these formerly sweet fields that they've been injecting produced water from other fields, injecting CO2, injecting Methane, injecting just about any "waste gas" they can get their hands on to maintain formation pressure. Where do you think all of that miscible material and other injection media comes from? Usually from a producing well. So now you have to take XX.XX% of all production from that well, and reinject it just to keep your production levels at a reasonable point.
Ok, so what are you going to inject into a Heavy Crude formation? If you inject steam, that won't do squat for formation pressure. Look at the volume a cubic foot of steam condenses down to when cooled. Well, they could inject Light Crude to mix and try to make production of Heavy easier. But then, we'd be using our easily produced money making Oil to produce the rest.
Bah, I lost my train of thought on this one....
But... But.... Big Oil is evil and fleecing this country for everything it has!!!!!
Have you seen the manufacturing times on some of this stuff? IF they could build more manufacturing facilities wind farms could actually be built.
Wait.... that would require the use of fossil fuels thus increasing the carbon footprint of these "green" energy sources.....
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Supplicate
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And don't get me started on the growing cost of producing and refining wells that continually increase their sour gas content year by year.......
Dude ... tell me about it ... hoooooooooly **** treating H2S costs us an epic boat load of money .....
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Ollie
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However, a lot of the oil I am refering to is off shore oil.
The new oil they found in the gulf of mexico is a good example.
These are reserves never punched before. They don't have the problems of the older used wells.
You mention costs.
How much do we spend buying oil from overseas.
It would be money well spent to buy us the time we need to convert to a different type of energy.
The US government ensures that it is much more cost effective to produce oil overseas than here.
Especially when the Democrats are in control ...
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Supplicate
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**** yeah, start out small with Stretford system or something similar and then 20 years later get something like the Flexorb (sp?) there outside of Evanston. Not to mention the cost of the piping for sour service, then sulfur processing, then acid gas systems, on and on and on. And that is just on the production side, the refining side is just as bad.
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Ollie
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true dat!!
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portgrinder
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If everone is so sure they know where oil is going, why not buy some stock?
I'll more than cover your increase at the pumps
I'll more than cover your increase at the pumps
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