2017 F250 Superduty

[icr]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-lending-as-more-borrowers-fall-into-default

This bubble began with cash for clunkers. Removing all sub $4500 vehicles from the market was a stupid long term descision. People shopping in that market were forced to use credit to buy above their means. Now here we are.

This will hardly be a bump in the road compared to the looming student loans problem.

 

[Mafesto]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-lending-as-more-borrowers-fall-into-default

This bubble began with cash for clunkers. Removing all sub $4500 vehicles from the market was a stupid long term descision. People shopping in that market were forced to use credit to buy above their means. Now here we are.

When will we learn to that government intervention NEVER improves things?

 

[christopher]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-lending-as-more-borrowers-fall-into-default

This bubble began with cash for clunkers. Removing all sub $4500 vehicles from the market was a stupid long term descision. People shopping in that market were forced to use credit to buy above their means. Now here we are.

This will hardly be a bump in the road compared to the looming student loans problem.

NO Argument from me...!

 

[christopher]

When will we learn to that government intervention NEVER improves things?

NEVER!

<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xhYJS80MgYA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[christopher]

And this was back in March!
Since then it has gotten WORSE not better..





Ford Warns "Used Car Prices Will Drop For Years"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-years-and-other-takeaways-fords-analyst-call


Earlier this morning we noted Ford's "CFO Let's Chat" meeting with analysts before which Ford announced weak 1Q adj. EPS guidance of 30c-35c, coming in well below analyst estimates of 47c, which they blamed on higher costs, lower volume & unfavorable exchange rates.
With the call now concluded, here are a couple of the key takeaways:


First, the bad...

• Volumes will start to fall off this year, next year
• Used car prices will drop for several years
• European profit will fall this year
• China sales down sharply in 1Q
• India more difficult than expected
• All options on table including traditional restructuring

...and the good-ish...

• Favorable market factors offsetting higher commodity prices
• Inventory levels “in very good shape”
• Sedans play diminishing role in U.S. business; SUVs, trucks make up 73% of U.S. business
• Not seeing anything to suggest economy will “tip over”

And while Ford is confident they're not seeing "anything to suggest the economy will 'tip over'" (which is good, right?), their own presentation slides would seem to paint a slightly different picture.


First, on Q1 2017 earnings by region, South America is expected to be flat...so that's at least not negative, which is nice...




And while Ford pointed to their gross inventory days as a sign that the industry does not have an inventory problem, they snuck in at the very bottom of slide 9 the fact that overall industry inventory was up 13 days in February vs. last year...




...and industry incentive spending paints pretty much the same picture...



And for those of you holding out hope that current volumes aren't simply the result of a massive auto loan bubble, we present to you some details behind Ford Motor Credit's "consistent and predictable" U.S. loan portfolio.





To summarize:

loan terms up,

lease mix up,

charge offs up massively...

all great news

 

[christopher]

A 50% Price Drop Looms

<time itemprop="datePublished" content="2017-05-15T20:13:31Z">May.15.17</time> | About: Ford Motor (F)

Value, dividend investing, Growth
<header>
</header>Summary

Car sales have topped out.

Off-lease cars are flooding the used car market.
MS expects a used car price drop of up to 50% -- this would make new cars less attractive in comparison and would likely lead to sales declines for Ford.

Share price has dropped, thus some headwinds are likely priced in -- shares could remain stable even if sales and / or earnings drop.
Dividend looks secure as well as attractive.

The auto industry saw shares drop significantly from cycle highs over the past, mainly due to worries about the number of new car sales.

Unfavorable conditions in the used-car market could pressure sales further, which doesn't bode too well for car manufacturers' shares.

F data by YCharts

​

Major car manufacturers saw their share prices drop by 23% (Toyota (NYSE:TM)), 8% (General Motors (NYSE:GM)) and -31% (Ford (NYSE:F)) over the last two years, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), which was further pressured due to the diesel scandal the company is experiencing, is not included in this list.

This drop in Ford's share price (as well as the drop in the share prices of the other car manufacturers) are based on fears about the US car market having peaked out for the time being.

This (relative) weakness in the US car market is visible when we look at the most recent data, from April 2017:


The WSJ reports that car sales dropped 11% in April, with light-duty trucks not being able to off-set that decline due to a very small drop (0.1%) in that category as well. The smaller SUV/Cross-over market grew slightly, but is not big enough to make up for the decline in the other two categories.

 

[christopher]

So
I stand by my original claim.
I think we WILL SEE some KILLER DEALS this summer.

 

[Reg2view]

Thanks for combing through, filtering, and sharing the insights, Christopher.


You're right, excellent chance that the back half of the year will have some very good deals on new 17 trucks, better if you finance through the dealer, and dealers will want good used trucks to help margins (good used trucks are big money makers for dealers). Good time for buyers, and truck owner/trade ins. Not so good for OEMs. The lease end effect hits the used market, but is good for new - these people are not gonna stop driving, they are just flipping, almost always to another lease. Will be a good time to buy a used car.


The key indicator of longer-term weakness - OEM's shutting lines down. Watch for it. Doesn't look like we'll have a big swing in long-term oil that drives buyers out of trucks and SUVs, perhaps for the rest of our lives. This fall will be fun if you're buying.

 

[tadder52]

So what everyone is saying here that this '12 F-150 that is pushing 100k I better hang on to and see if middle of summer I can find a dealer that needs to off load a new one and over pay for my used one? Or buy 2-3 year old trucks that I really like because someone else took the big depreciation hit.

Or just the opposite? Buy now while everything seems to be at the top of the market?

Used trucks around me are flying off the market. And I'm seeing a pile of new ones go as well. I can drive through a small dealer and see 15 used trucks come back two weeks later and 80% of them have turned over. While a dozen new trucks sit there and maybe turn over 25%.

 

[christopher]

So what everyone is saying here that this '12 F-150 that is pushing 100k I better hang on to and see if middle of summer I can find a dealer that needs to off load a new one and over pay for my used one? Or buy 2-3 year old trucks that I really like because someone else took the big depreciation hit.

Or just the opposite? Buy now while everything seems to be at the top of the market?

Used trucks around me are flying off the market. And I'm seeing a pile of new ones go as well. I can drive through a small dealer and see 15 used trucks come back two weeks later and 80% of them have turned over. While a dozen new trucks sit there and maybe turn over 25%.

What I see this saying is that the value of used vehicles, in general, will be going DOWN this summer and fall as more and more lease end vehicles starting hitting the market en mass...

 

[meathooker]

What I see this saying is that the value of used vehicles, in general, will be going DOWN this summer and fall as more and more lease end vehicles starting hitting the market en mass...

this is my delima. I bought a 16 in march last year. killer deal. they'll give me a trade in now that is 2k less than i paid! which is awesome but the new trucks are only 4k off msrp right now.

so the decision is do you take the high trade in now but pay more or take the lower trade in and lower purchase price???

ill probably wait ...

 

[christopher]

this is my delima. I bought a 16 in march last year. killer deal. they'll give me a trade in now that is 2k less than i paid! which is awesome but the new trucks are only 4k off msrp right now.

so the decision is do you take the high trade in now but pay more or take the lower trade in and lower purchase price???

ill probably wait ...

Why trade in a vehicle SOO soon after purchasing it?

 

[Scott]

Saw a white pearl metallic colored dually 450 platinum last week. It had a 4" lift with 35" tires and some black rims, with AMP running boards.


I don't like white vehicles of any sort....but WOW that's a good looking truck. WOW!!!!

I have rode in my buddies 17 F350 platinum for about 4000 miles this yr, it is by far the best truck I have ever been in. It is better then the 2016 super dutys in every way. Quieter,better ride,more room,more power,more features, 360 cameras, and I love the massaging front seats lol! Don't drive one unless you plan to buy one because you will want it afterwords!

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[tadder52]

this is my delima. I bought a 16 in march last year. killer deal. they'll give me a trade in now that is 2k less than i paid! which is awesome but the new trucks are only 4k off msrp right now.

so the decision is do you take the high trade in now but pay more or take the lower trade in and lower purchase price???

ill probably wait ...

So what is it going to cost you to get into a new one? How many miles on the "old" one?


I'm not quite in that dilemma, but I am at a point where I do believe my truck is going to fall of a depreciation shelf. It's a 12, pushing 100k.

 

[RMK-King]

Updated pic...CK fab front bumper, Monster 2 wheels, 35" coopers. Headed to cooke today.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[NorthMNSledder]

Sledmax, that is a sharp looking truck. How many miles do you have on and any issues / complaints with the new rig yet?


Also has anybody else noticed what seems like a lot more F-450's on the road now in the new body style? Do they just ride better now or has there always been a bunch of F-450 out there and I just never noticed.

 

[RMK-King]

It's my buddies rig, has 12k miles on it now with zero issues. I have been with for 10k of those miles lol.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[boondocker97]

Sledmax, that is a sharp looking truck. How many miles do you have on and any issues / complaints with the new rig yet?


Also has anybody else noticed what seems like a lot more F-450's on the road now in the new body style? Do they just ride better now or has there always been a bunch of F-450 out there and I just never noticed.

The f-450s from 2011 to 2014 went back to 17" wheels and looked just like the f-350 DRW trucks so they blend right in. The new ones ride pretty damn good for what they are.

 

[Scott]

The f-450s from 2011 to 2014 went back to 17" wheels and looked just like the f-350 DRW trucks so they blend right in. The new ones ride pretty damn good for what they are.

I think my next truck would be a loaded f-450 with a Silverlake flatbed.

 

[anziconda]

2017 F-350

Here's my new sled hauler. Love the truck so far!! Just over 7000miles on it.