Avy Forcast 4.27
Statewide Avalanche Conditions
Issued: 04/27/2011 8:27 AM by Brian Lazar
Expires: 04/29/2011 3:00 PM 2 2
Highlights
All mountain zones received some significant storm totals in the 2 to 3 foot range since the weekend. This fell on top of the weekend storm snow. So, we have new fresh wind slabs stacking up pretty deep. Winds during this period varied from south to west to north so the most loaded slopes are those near and above treeline facing northwest through east through south. Periodic sunshine and warm temperatures created melt-freeze crusts, and moist layers, which are interspersed between storm snow layers. The upper snowpack is complicated and has lots of layers. It also varies quite a bit over short distances depending on sun and wind exposure.
We have received reports of wind slabs releasing naturally, by skiers, and from explosive control work from many mountain areas. Some of these slabs are only releasing the latest round of snow, with fractures around 1 foot thick. Other releases involved more or all of the windslab stack, which make for much deeper releases as thick as 5 to 7 feet. All these slides are running pretty far, regardless of size. Below treeline, the snowpack is wet and punchy. Larger wet slab and wet loose avalanches are possible on all aspects especially on Thursday and Friday when temperatures warm again. Periods of snow look they'll return on Saturday adding new surface layers to the snowpack.
Riding conditions are good to excellent above 11,000 feet. It's been an epic season, and we're still skiing powder on a deep snowpack in late April! But, we can't let our guard down just yet. The extended transition to spring still requires attention for surface wind slabs and wet slides.
The CAIC will update the Statewide Forecast on Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoons, and more frequently if conditions warrant. Zone forecasts will resume in mid-November. We really appreciate your observations of snow conditions and avalanche activity.
Drier air is moving into Colorado Wednesday afternoon ushering in the first sustained break in snowfall in quite a while. There is still some light and widely scattered ororgraphic snowfall lingering over high elevation northwest facing slopes this afternoon, mainly around the Continental Divide, but this will wind down by the end of the day today. Total accumulations won't add up to more than a couple inches by the time it's all over. A broad ridge of high pressure pushes into Colorado overnight Wednesday, and winds increase from the west. Skies will begin to clear and temperatures will gradually warm back up. Thursday will feel more like spring, with sunshine and warmer temperatures. Clouds build Thursday night keeping nighttime lows fairly warm. Friday will be warm before a cold front Friday night brings another round of light snow, but it doesn't look like anything to get too excited about at this stage. Expect temperatures to dive once again as this cold front passes on Saturday with continued light snowfall. Snowfall totals by the end of Saturday don't look like they'll add up to more than a couple inches.
Weather forecasts are updated twice daily through the end of April. Automated weather data is viewable at the Weather Stations by Zone web site.
What a year! Snowfall records are being broken in most of our mountains except the San Juan Mountains. But even there the latest round of snow have brought the snowpack close to historic average. Telluride is reporting a base of 107 inches. On the other end of the spectrum, the Tower station in the Steamboat zone has 200 inches on the ground! Most zones got 2 to 3 feet of new snow since the storm from the weekend. This has added more layers and windslabs to the complicated upper snowpack. Triggering winds slabs in the upper snowpack will be one the of the primary avalanche concerns over the next few days. The other main concern will be the potential for wet slides, as we get a reminder that it is in fact spring, with some warmer temperatures and sunshine for Thursday and Friday.
Winds during the last round of snow varied from south to west to north so the most loaded slopes are those near and above treeline facing northwest through east through south. Periodic sunshine and warm temperatures created melt-freeze crusts, and moist layers, which are interspersed between storm snow layers. Conditions vary quite a bit over short distances depending on sun and wind exposure. The upper snowpack is a stack of wind slabs, with a mixed bag of moist or wet layers, and/or crusts in between. Most reported avalanches over the last few days are only involving the top layer or two, with slabs around a foot thick. Some of the recent releases, however, involve most or all of this upper stack, with releases 5 to 7 feet thick. All these slides are running pretty far, regardless of size. Here are some avalanche highlights from the last few days:
•From the Front Range and Vail/Summit zones: numerous soft slab releases 1 to 2 feet thick near and above treeline on north through northeast through east aspects. Observers are noting these are easily triggered under skier weight. Control work on Tuesday in Stanley slide path near Berthoud Pass released a soft slab 4 feet thick, 700 feet wide, running around 800 vertical feet. Over on Loveland Pass, several deep (4+ feet thick) soft slabs were observed to have run naturally. These slabs were on east to southeast aspects above treeline, one of which was reported a 7 feet deep.
•Control work on the Grand Mesa on Tuesday produced several shallow storm slabs 1 to 4 feet thick on northwest aspects near treeline.
•In the Northern San Juan Mountains, several soft slabs were reported from northeast and north aspects near and above treeline; both natural and skier triggered. They were 1 to 3 feet thick, and running 1000 vertical feet or more.Today (Wednesday) control work on Red Mountain Pass released the east facing Blue Point slide path. The wet slab propagated fairly deep and wide, and put 7 to 8 feet of snow on the center-line of the highway over a 300 foot distance.
•In the Southern San Juan Mountains, several small wet loose slides below treeline and a few small soft slabs on northeast and north aspects above treeline were observed in the Wolf Creek Pass area.
For all mountain areas, the snowpack below treeline is wet and holding lots of water. Some early signs of water draining from the snowpack are beginning to appear, but wet avalanches remain a concern on all aspects below treeline. Wet avalanches running to ground remain a real possibility. Many zones maintain a significant below treeline snowpack. Should all this snow decide to move at once in a deep wet slide, we could see a round of fairly large and destructive avalanches. Warmer temperatures and sunshine on Thursday and Friday will quickly increase the danger for deep wet slab activity. The riding below 10,000 is reported to be wet, punchy, and not very fun. Best to avoid these areas.
We also received reports of growing cornices, some of them collapsing. Be very cautious around these monsters. It's that time of year when they could start to fail. Enjoy the epic spring conditions, but don't let your guard down yet. Pick your routes carefully, pay close attention to rapidly changing conditions over the terrain and throughout the day, and you will be rewarded.