El NINO >>> OH YA !!!
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All Signs Indicate a New Monster El Niño Is Coming
George Dvorsky
Filed to: EARTH SCIENCES 8/05/15 7:30am
http://io9.com/all-signs-indicate-a-new-monster-el-nino-is-coming-1722216118
George Dvorsky
Filed to: EARTH SCIENCES 8/05/15 7:30am
http://io9.com/all-signs-indicate-a-new-monster-el-nino-is-coming-1722216118
I hear a lot about precip... but not much about air temps in the mountains.
Will it be cold enough to be white... or just really wet.... we nee the aqua so I'm happy either way... but much more so if it's a monster snowpack.
Will it be cold enough to be white... or just really wet.... we nee the aqua so I'm happy either way... but much more so if it's a monster snowpack.
The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.”
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.”
Not sure about the rest of the west but I know in SW MT we have had a crazy summer. Super dry coming off our crappy winter then since July it seems to rain just about every other day, In june i had my irrigation cranking to keep my yard from totally dying. Now even where I don't irrigate is all back and green. Mountain trails got puddles all over.
I really can't complain how the summer has been going!
I really can't complain how the summer has been going!
Strange days indeed
Strange weather years make for good winters..
Strange weather years make for good winters..
B
Bcorn
Well-known member
Hope your right!
I have not seen a temp forecast ...
But one El Nino year mountains 60 miles from Los Angeles rec'd 10 plus feet of snow (snail) at 6000 feet in less than a week.
The only hassle was all the spectators blocking access.
15 August Mammoth weather report
El Nino News:
3rd strong down welling phase of Kelvin Wave since last March is currently reinforcing the Nino Basin.
Todays daily contribution to the SOI (southern oscillation index) calculation is -31.74 which is quite strong. Thus westerly wind bursts continue along the Equatorial Central Pacific.
The current mid August strength of El Nino is comparable to 1997 at this time.
Warm Blob in the Gulf of Alaska is showing signs of cooling.
1. The Blob of Warmth was a contributor to the dry winter of 2015. It assisted in delivering cold to the mid west and east. The Dweebs said contributor not the reason. Other teleconnecting issues like a positive AMO earlier this year blocked up the Western Atlantic and helped contain the cold over the east. With the warm Gulf of AK Blob cooling, and the AMO trending negative (less west Atlantic blocking) and possibly the +PDO weakening in the Fall…The stage should be set for the wet!
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.KJeg1zs3.dpuf
El Nino News:
3rd strong down welling phase of Kelvin Wave since last March is currently reinforcing the Nino Basin.
Todays daily contribution to the SOI (southern oscillation index) calculation is -31.74 which is quite strong. Thus westerly wind bursts continue along the Equatorial Central Pacific.
The current mid August strength of El Nino is comparable to 1997 at this time.
Warm Blob in the Gulf of Alaska is showing signs of cooling.
1. The Blob of Warmth was a contributor to the dry winter of 2015. It assisted in delivering cold to the mid west and east. The Dweebs said contributor not the reason. Other teleconnecting issues like a positive AMO earlier this year blocked up the Western Atlantic and helped contain the cold over the east. With the warm Gulf of AK Blob cooling, and the AMO trending negative (less west Atlantic blocking) and possibly the +PDO weakening in the Fall…The stage should be set for the wet!
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.KJeg1zs3.dpuf
Q. What does this particular El Nino Mean as a value in long range climate prediction on the scale of the next 12 months?
A. This particular El Nino (Type 1) has got a signal that makes it easier at a longer distance of time to predict future weather events for Southern California. Hence, the stronger the El Nino, the stronger the signal. The stronger the signal the higher the likelihood of a wetter than normal winter for Southern California and possibly points northward as well.
Q. Do you need to have “this” strong (Type one) of an El Nino signal for a Wet California Winter?
A. No….. As a case in point, according to the records of DWP, since the late 1940s, the Winter of 1968/1969 was the wettest winter at Mammoth Pass. Coincidently, that winter was just barely a Moderate El Nino. So you can get very wet Winters in the Southern Sierra without such a strong signal. The main point is that the stronger signal is only beneficial for increasing the odds in the game for prediction for a wet winter, not the wettest winter on record.
1. In Mammoth Lakes, the winter of *1983, (type I El Nino) was a wetter winter than the all time strongest recorded El Nino of 1997/98 event for water content up on Mammoth Pass *(90) inches H2O . So another point is….In the event that this turns out to be a stronger event than 1997/98, does not necessarily mean a wetter winter than the winter of 1969 or 1983, just because the signal is stronger.
A typical El Nino year has the ski slopes open for Turkey Day and above normal for Spooky Night !
A. This particular El Nino (Type 1) has got a signal that makes it easier at a longer distance of time to predict future weather events for Southern California. Hence, the stronger the El Nino, the stronger the signal. The stronger the signal the higher the likelihood of a wetter than normal winter for Southern California and possibly points northward as well.
Q. Do you need to have “this” strong (Type one) of an El Nino signal for a Wet California Winter?
A. No….. As a case in point, according to the records of DWP, since the late 1940s, the Winter of 1968/1969 was the wettest winter at Mammoth Pass. Coincidently, that winter was just barely a Moderate El Nino. So you can get very wet Winters in the Southern Sierra without such a strong signal. The main point is that the stronger signal is only beneficial for increasing the odds in the game for prediction for a wet winter, not the wettest winter on record.
1. In Mammoth Lakes, the winter of *1983, (type I El Nino) was a wetter winter than the all time strongest recorded El Nino of 1997/98 event for water content up on Mammoth Pass *(90) inches H2O . So another point is….In the event that this turns out to be a stronger event than 1997/98, does not necessarily mean a wetter winter than the winter of 1969 or 1983, just because the signal is stronger.
A typical El Nino year has the ski slopes open for Turkey Day and above normal for Spooky Night !
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Check out Bob Tisdale’s SSTA evolution below by clicking on the link.
Look at the Nino 3.4 graph to see how this El Nino is progression.
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/nino-region-ssta-evolutions.png#sthash.KJeg1zs3.dpuf
Even though the CFS v2 has pulled back a bit from its highs a week or so ago…who cares? Do really want an El Nino 3.4 event of +3C anyway? Super Nino Criteria is anything above +2C in the Nino 3.4 region for a few months. California does not need the kind of Carnage that an event of +3c for a few month would bring……. -
Look at the Nino 3.4 graph to see how this El Nino is progression.
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/nino-region-ssta-evolutions.png#sthash.KJeg1zs3.dpuf
Even though the CFS v2 has pulled back a bit from its highs a week or so ago…who cares? Do really want an El Nino 3.4 event of +3C anyway? Super Nino Criteria is anything above +2C in the Nino 3.4 region for a few months. California does not need the kind of Carnage that an event of +3c for a few month would bring……. -
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CBS news 17 AUG
Chances are strong that a record-setting El Nino is headed toward California this winter. What is unknown is how it will play out for the state beset by four years of drought that fallowed farm fields, turned lawns brown and dried up streams and wells.
WHAT IS AN EL NINO?
Every few years, winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. These El Nino events trigger changing weather patterns globally and can increase chances of heavy rain and snow pelting California.
Forecasters say this El Nino is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers in 65 years. It's been unofficially named Bruce Lee after the action hero.
Satellite measurement show that this El Nino is now more powerful than a king-sized one in 1997-98, which started weaker and finished stronger, said NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert, who compared it to Godzilla for the mudslides and destruction it can cause.
El Nino.jpg
Side by side comparison of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in 2015 (right) and during the famous 1997 El Niño (left). These 1997 and 2015 El Niño images were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites./ NASA
WILL IT END CALIFORNIA'S DROUGHT?
Chances are 50-50 of the El Nino delivering a wet winter, says California's state climatologist Michael Anderson. Since 1958, there have been seven El Nino systems - three wet, three dry and one average. Anderson says it's too soon to predict a wet winter. Five of the Sierra Nevada's 10 skimpiest snowpacks on record have occurred in the last decade.
California needs 1 1/2 times the amount of normal rainfall to pull itself from drought, says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
ARE THERE DOWNSIDES?
While few argue that California needs a wet one, wildfires raging across the state this summer set the stage for flooding and mudslides. Daniel Berlant of the state's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection says crews already have battled 1,500 more fires than a normal year.
Fire can harden the ground, creating the chances of floods, or it can burn off vegetation that holds soil in place, creating mudslides.
WHAT DO FARMERS THINK?
They're cautiously optimistic. Ryan Jacobsen, executive director of the Fresno County Farm Bureau, says farmers aren't fooled by a common misconception that El Nino always translates into a wet winter.
Early signs point to a good winter ahead, but California's rainy season doesn't start until October, more than one month away.
"The one constant with Mother Nature is that she's always changing," Jacobsen said
Chances are strong that a record-setting El Nino is headed toward California this winter. What is unknown is how it will play out for the state beset by four years of drought that fallowed farm fields, turned lawns brown and dried up streams and wells.
WHAT IS AN EL NINO?
Every few years, winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. These El Nino events trigger changing weather patterns globally and can increase chances of heavy rain and snow pelting California.
Forecasters say this El Nino is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers in 65 years. It's been unofficially named Bruce Lee after the action hero.
Satellite measurement show that this El Nino is now more powerful than a king-sized one in 1997-98, which started weaker and finished stronger, said NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert, who compared it to Godzilla for the mudslides and destruction it can cause.
El Nino.jpg
Side by side comparison of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in 2015 (right) and during the famous 1997 El Niño (left). These 1997 and 2015 El Niño images were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites./ NASA
WILL IT END CALIFORNIA'S DROUGHT?
Chances are 50-50 of the El Nino delivering a wet winter, says California's state climatologist Michael Anderson. Since 1958, there have been seven El Nino systems - three wet, three dry and one average. Anderson says it's too soon to predict a wet winter. Five of the Sierra Nevada's 10 skimpiest snowpacks on record have occurred in the last decade.
California needs 1 1/2 times the amount of normal rainfall to pull itself from drought, says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
ARE THERE DOWNSIDES?
While few argue that California needs a wet one, wildfires raging across the state this summer set the stage for flooding and mudslides. Daniel Berlant of the state's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection says crews already have battled 1,500 more fires than a normal year.
Fire can harden the ground, creating the chances of floods, or it can burn off vegetation that holds soil in place, creating mudslides.
WHAT DO FARMERS THINK?
They're cautiously optimistic. Ryan Jacobsen, executive director of the Fresno County Farm Bureau, says farmers aren't fooled by a common misconception that El Nino always translates into a wet winter.
Early signs point to a good winter ahead, but California's rainy season doesn't start until October, more than one month away.
"The one constant with Mother Nature is that she's always changing," Jacobsen said
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For 2015 it has been a very unusually wet Summer here in the eastern central sierra. Isopleths suggest that precipitation is running about 250% of normal for Mammoth Lakes CA area June through July.
I find it interesting most moisture this summer is from high pressure systems moving moisture from Mexico and the Gulf.
Winter moisture is 99.9% of the time from the west from the Pacific Ocean.
I find it interesting most moisture this summer is from high pressure systems moving moisture from Mexico and the Gulf.
Winter moisture is 99.9% of the time from the west from the Pacific Ocean.
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Another snow capped peak weekend in the forcast for SW MT. heat is running in the shop mid afternoon on an august afternoon. I don't trust the weather until its been happening but I know SW MT has sure had a cool wet July/Aug so far!
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