H
HappyJack
Well-known member
Avy Forcast 2.03.X2
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Front Range
Issued: 02/03/2012 6:48 AM by Spencer Logan
Avalanche Warning in Effect through 02/04/2012 12:00 PM
Heavy snowfall east of the Continental Divide has created very dangerous avalanche conditions. Total snowfall accumulation with the storm will be one to two feet or more. That amount of snow will overwhelm a weak snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely today. Steep slopes near and below treeline could produce small but dangerous avalanches. Near and above treeline, large and potentially deadly avalanches are possible as well. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance or on low angled terrain below steep slopes. Backcountry travelers should avoid travel in or below avalanche terrain.
6:48 AM by Spencer Logan: WARNING for Front Range east of Continental Divide. Large remotes near-above treeline, small near and below.
Highlights
There is, and will be, a big difference in snowfall across the zone. East of the Continental Dived, a large load of snow is accumulating. That will overwhelm the existing snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Think carefully about steep slopes below treeline, like the sides of gullies or cut banks above roads. We often discount these small slopes, but today they could be dangerous. Large avalanches are possible near and above treeline, taking out the new snow or the entire snowpack.
West of the Continental Divide little snow will accumulate to change the avalanche danger. Persistent slabs remain the primary concern. Avalanches are getting harder to trigger, but continue to be large and potentially deadly.
Avalanche Danger
The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is HIGH (Level 4) on all NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. The danger is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on all S-SW-W aspects. Heavy snowfall and rapid loading will make dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry today. The danger is lower in the western portion of the zone, where snowfall is dramatically less.
Snow & Avalanche Discussion
East of the Continental Dived, a large load of snow is accumulating. The new snow will overwhelm the old snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Expect avalanches on steep slopes below treeline where there was snow prior to this storm. We often do not consider this kind of terrain hazardous, but this season has demonstrated how dangerous small slopes can be. There are many exposed rocks and trees that small avalanches could sweep you into. Even small avalanches can have severe consequences. Near and above treeline the upper snowpack has been strengthening. Unfortunately, the bottom layers remain very weak. Fractures can travel long distances in a snowpack like that, and triggering large avalanches from a distance is a distinct possibility. Over the last few weeks, several parties have been caught on low angle terrain when they triggered avalanches several hundred feet above them. North to east winds will drift the new snow into some unusual places near and above treeline. The old snow surface is a highly variable mix of crusts and facets. Expect some very poor bonding, and fresh wind slabs and storm slabs will be easy to trigger.
Snowfall decreases dramatically west of the Divide. The snow will not add a sufficient load to be an avalanche problem. That leaves the weak, faceted snow near the ground and other weak layers higher in the snowpack. Persistent slabs are still a concern on northwest through northeast to southeast aspects. Avalanches are becoming harder to trigger, but large human-triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes. Again, triggering an avalanche from below remains a big concern. Over the past week, triggered avalanches have been up to 11 feet deep!
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Front Range
Issued: 02/03/2012 6:48 AM by Spencer Logan
Avalanche Warning in Effect through 02/04/2012 12:00 PM
Heavy snowfall east of the Continental Divide has created very dangerous avalanche conditions. Total snowfall accumulation with the storm will be one to two feet or more. That amount of snow will overwhelm a weak snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely today. Steep slopes near and below treeline could produce small but dangerous avalanches. Near and above treeline, large and potentially deadly avalanches are possible as well. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance or on low angled terrain below steep slopes. Backcountry travelers should avoid travel in or below avalanche terrain.
6:48 AM by Spencer Logan: WARNING for Front Range east of Continental Divide. Large remotes near-above treeline, small near and below.
Highlights
There is, and will be, a big difference in snowfall across the zone. East of the Continental Dived, a large load of snow is accumulating. That will overwhelm the existing snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Think carefully about steep slopes below treeline, like the sides of gullies or cut banks above roads. We often discount these small slopes, but today they could be dangerous. Large avalanches are possible near and above treeline, taking out the new snow or the entire snowpack.
West of the Continental Divide little snow will accumulate to change the avalanche danger. Persistent slabs remain the primary concern. Avalanches are getting harder to trigger, but continue to be large and potentially deadly.
Avalanche Danger
The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is HIGH (Level 4) on all NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. The danger is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on all S-SW-W aspects. Heavy snowfall and rapid loading will make dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry today. The danger is lower in the western portion of the zone, where snowfall is dramatically less.
Snow & Avalanche Discussion
East of the Continental Dived, a large load of snow is accumulating. The new snow will overwhelm the old snowpack. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Expect avalanches on steep slopes below treeline where there was snow prior to this storm. We often do not consider this kind of terrain hazardous, but this season has demonstrated how dangerous small slopes can be. There are many exposed rocks and trees that small avalanches could sweep you into. Even small avalanches can have severe consequences. Near and above treeline the upper snowpack has been strengthening. Unfortunately, the bottom layers remain very weak. Fractures can travel long distances in a snowpack like that, and triggering large avalanches from a distance is a distinct possibility. Over the last few weeks, several parties have been caught on low angle terrain when they triggered avalanches several hundred feet above them. North to east winds will drift the new snow into some unusual places near and above treeline. The old snow surface is a highly variable mix of crusts and facets. Expect some very poor bonding, and fresh wind slabs and storm slabs will be easy to trigger.
Snowfall decreases dramatically west of the Divide. The snow will not add a sufficient load to be an avalanche problem. That leaves the weak, faceted snow near the ground and other weak layers higher in the snowpack. Persistent slabs are still a concern on northwest through northeast to southeast aspects. Avalanches are becoming harder to trigger, but large human-triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes. Again, triggering an avalanche from below remains a big concern. Over the past week, triggered avalanches have been up to 11 feet deep!
