"No matter what you know or learn about avy's it is guess work at best...not even a caluculated risk it is a fricken calculated guess at best."
This statement is not true. The actual physical structure of the snowpack can tell you when you are more likely to trigger avalanches.
This year compared to last year at this same time are perfect examples. Last year at the end of January we had a deep and stable snowpack. The base layers were like cement bricks that you could drive a car on. I felt very comfortable getting onto big steep slopes. This year we have a thin week snowpack with weak snow near the ground. It's like trying to balance a car on top of potato chips. I can't feel good about a lot of the large slopes yet this year. Continued avalanche activity correlates well with the poor structure with almost all of the avalanches I visit breaking into the weak snow near the ground.
The areas with thinner snow cover such as the Skyline area and the Uintas have the worst snowpack structure.
Have patience. Things may improve but they may not either. Weather will dictate. If you're getting onto the big slopes at least put only one person on them at a time and don't watch from the runnout zones.
Brett Kobernik
Avalanche Forecaster
Utah Avalanche Center
Thanks Brett.
I think sledders have come a long ways in the recent years as far as avalanche awareness and preparedness goes. However, I think it always pays to err on the side of caution. I have talked with a lot of sledders who have been to one free avy class and think they KNOW when it is safe and when it is not. Much more avy training and education is needed. I am in the uintas multiple times per week and I am seeing more and more people venturing out onto slopes right now and taking a risk because they think it is safe and they haven't heard much as far as avy activity goes in a while. It is still a shallow snowpack here and there are still slopes that can and will slide with enough prodding. On top of that it rained up here today up to about 9000 - 9500 feet. Heavy, wet snow at higher eleveations although not much accumulations. Surely tonight the rain will freeze and put a rain crust on the snow at mid elevations. I guess what I am trying to say is that we all need to educate ourselves continually, check avy forecasts everytime, and not get caught up thinking we know more than we actually do. If the forecast is considerable for an area, you won't find me climbing. The uinta's is one of the only (maybe fairview) areas in the state still at a considerable danger. Some of these forecast areas are quite large and the conditions can change from the northern half to the southern half. If in doubt dig a pit and evaluate the snowpack that your riding.
Just out of curiosity how many of you guys have dug a snow pit, or even know how and what to look for? They can actually be quite interesting, and fun.
Well enough rambling. Let's hope for some good snow this weekend. Be safe Y'all.
![Beer :beer; :beer;](https://www.snowest.com/forum/images/smilies/beer.gif)