Mammoth forecast 100 inches by January 1st !!!
Sunday, December 14, 2008
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WITH UP TO 40 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CREST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TONIGHT.
A DEEP COLD UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON COAST IS PROGGED TO TRACK SSE BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROF OVER NORTHERN CA TUESDAY MORNING.....AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC...THIS WILL TRACK THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM NNW.....MORE OVER WATER AND WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND MOVE IT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE HEAVY BY LATE EVENING. AS MENTIONED A FEW DAYS AGO, THE GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS THE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN....SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THREE FEET OR A BIT MORE ABOVE 10000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW OPERATIONAL GFS 12Z HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EAST NOW. SO CONFIDENCE ANY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY IS NOT GOOD. UNSETTLED WOULD BE A BETTER TERM.
THE LONGER RANGE PROGS FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z SUNDAY GFS RUN, CONTINUE THE TREND OF RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG RANGE RIDGE....TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS AN AMPLE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE LONG WAVE EASTERN PACIFIC STRUCTURE WEEK TWO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WETTER AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MORNING, THAT WE COULD HAVE WELL OVER 100 INCHES OF SNOW FALL ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY DECEMBERS END.
