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Forcast for Dec.

Phatty... SSSHHHHHHH! LOL Way to many rocks....

Well I don't know what happened but the SnoTel is showing 2-3" half way up the canyon road. I like! So, now it just needs to continue. And, not sure who to thank, but I will start with Silvertip for just starting the snow forecast info.
 
It's Coming!!

It's coming and looks very promising..and its going to cold..so levels will be low. My guess is it will be here (Sierra's) for about 5 days..starting on Saturday..and will not have any heavy downfall but will be steady..I'm hoping Sunday will be ridable..:D
 
It's coming and looks very promising..and its going to cold..so levels will be low. My guess is it will be here (Sierra's) for about 5 days..starting on Saturday..and will not have any heavy downfall but will be steady..I'm hoping Sunday will be ridable..:D

I sure hope you thoughts about a ride come to reality. Looks like a chance of hope is better then the weather.com forecast. Praying for snow!!!
 
i see me in my garage trying to imagine myself riding... really hoping that something is coming... but then realizing that there is no real snow in the forecast for the next 2 weeks and thinking that i should have bought a boat or jet ski instead... this sucks the sweat off my balls... and with the current summer-like weather, there is plenty
 
this is from our meterologist here at ABC30 in fresno this morning. this was an email he sent out to some of his weather-geek friends.

In the beginning….The center of the storm will remain over water , then make a right turn as it approaches Vancouver Island, sagging south down the West Coast and stalling out over California this coming weekend. Limited over water trajectory should keep the beginning rainfall coverage to a minimum, with what little shower activity develops largely confined to coastal or mountain locations of the North State.



THEN!!!! Models show a additional disturbances injecting strength and moisture into the trough before the whole storm complex widens and rotates inland across California early next week to bring what potentially will be the most significant storm event for state of California in quite some time.



What to expect:

· Unsettled Weather begins Late Saturday and Sunday – Bigger impact days are Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday (Perhaps even Thursday and Friday)

· Low snow levels – Snow in the foothills and maybe even a chance of a wet flake or two over the valley (Like…Fresno??? Yes Fresno or anywhere on the valley floor). Especially Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

· Heavy Snow in the high Sierra for an extended period(forget feet find a yardstick).

· Mountain highway closures – Including the Southern Sierra and Grapevine - even Coast-range snow is likely at low levels (ie. Pacheco Pass and Bay Area mountains or Highway 41 to the central coast)



** Disclaimer**

As the storm approaches the models will get a better handle on the details. What is listed above is dependent on our best science and what would occur now if there are no changes, but all computer models are subject to change



let's hope it stays on track!!
 
Here's another site and story with good news
http://www.owsweather.com/pr120808a.html

I like the "50 year event" talk... I know, dont get too excited yet, but hey I need something to look forward too.... I think I'm getting a good feeling about next week though, .... I can't take anymore high pressure talk!!!!
 
this is from our meterologist here at ABC30 in fresno this morning. this was an email he sent out to some of his weather-geek friends.

In the beginning….The center of the storm will remain over water , then make a right turn as it approaches Vancouver Island, sagging south down the West Coast and stalling out over California this coming weekend. Limited over water trajectory should keep the beginning rainfall coverage to a minimum, with what little shower activity develops largely confined to coastal or mountain locations of the North State.



THEN!!!! Models show a additional disturbances injecting strength and moisture into the trough before the whole storm complex widens and rotates inland across California early next week to bring what potentially will be the most significant storm event for state of California in quite some time.



What to expect:

· Unsettled Weather begins Late Saturday and Sunday – Bigger impact days are Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday (Perhaps even Thursday and Friday)

· Low snow levels – Snow in the foothills and maybe even a chance of a wet flake or two over the valley (Like…Fresno??? Yes Fresno or anywhere on the valley floor). Especially Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

· Heavy Snow in the high Sierra for an extended period(forget feet find a yardstick).

· Mountain highway closures – Including the Southern Sierra and Grapevine - even Coast-range snow is likely at low levels (ie. Pacheco Pass and Bay Area mountains or Highway 41 to the central coast)



** Disclaimer**

As the storm approaches the models will get a better handle on the details. What is listed above is dependent on our best science and what would occur now if there are no changes, but all computer models are subject to change



let's hope it stays on track!!



Oh please oh please oh please let this be true. I do not have to be on call for 2 weeks and wow would this be a nice treat!
 
Jlowe !

this is from our meterologist here at ABC30 in fresno this morning. this was an email he sent out to some of his weather-geek friends.

In the beginning….The center of the storm will remain over water , then make a right turn as it approaches Vancouver Island, sagging south down the West Coast and stalling out over California this coming weekend. Limited over water trajectory should keep the beginning rainfall coverage to a minimum, with what little shower activity develops largely confined to coastal or mountain locations of the North State.



THEN!!!! Models show a additional disturbances injecting strength and moisture into the trough before the whole storm complex widens and rotates inland across California early next week to bring what potentially will be the most significant storm event for state of California in quite some time.



What to expect:

· Unsettled Weather begins Late Saturday and Sunday – Bigger impact days are Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday (Perhaps even Thursday and Friday)

· Low snow levels – Snow in the foothills and maybe even a chance of a wet flake or two over the valley (Like…Fresno??? Yes Fresno or anywhere on the valley floor). Especially Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

· Heavy Snow in the high Sierra for an extended period(forget feet find a yardstick).

· Mountain highway closures – Including the Southern Sierra and Grapevine - even Coast-range snow is likely at low levels (ie. Pacheco Pass and Bay Area mountains or Highway 41 to the central coast)



** Disclaimer**

As the storm approaches the models will get a better handle on the details. What is listed above is dependent on our best science and what would occur now if there are no changes, but all computer models are subject to change



let's hope it stays on track!!

Jlowe.... Who you calling a weather-geek ???? Biotch ! :face-icon-small-ton
 
If we get many feet of snow ... where to get access?

Cause there is no state plowing / grooming till 22 December.

Correct?
 
MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOW SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONLY BIG CONCERN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEEDS IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH. 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH HAS THE LOW CLEARING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE SIERRA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EVEN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LOW OR TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL DATA. THE PATTERN IMMEDIATELY BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR A MULTI DAY SNOW EVENT IN THE SIERRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS Probability SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND LOWER ENSEMBLE SPREADS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 FOR THE SIERRA PEAKS AND 15 TO 1 FOR AREAS DOWN TO 6000 FEET INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN SO EVEN QPF TOTALS AS LOW AS 0.50 INCHES WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT POWDERY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE EVENT ARRIVES SO THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM
 
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