LOL From what I have been reading you haven't stopped before Silvertip. LMAO But the drink did look good. 
Not to early to start right???
Not to early to start right???
Forcast for Dec.
- Thread starter HiMark Racing
- Start date
For any one that cares 
. I think the world is come to an END. The new 18 GFS has rain start in the morning of the 13 up North spreading South thou the day and RAIN every day thou the 22. Up to 8 inches of rain in that time period.
But I know no one care. What a shame!!!!!!!!!!
. I think the world is come to an END. The new 18 GFS has rain start in the morning of the 13 up North spreading South thou the day and RAIN every day thou the 22. Up to 8 inches of rain in that time period. But I know no one care. What a shame!!!!!!!!!!
So... 'til then, guess i'll just sprinkle a bag of powder sugar on the hardwood floors in the house and run the 'ol R/C M-7! (we'll see how the video turns out, haha!) If it breaks flyin off the stairs... i'll just take it down to Thin Air. They've had every other sled i own in their shop! For now...good night all, im gonna go lay in bed and fall asleep to some "Elevation 3". (that was for you Jeff!)
(we'll see how the video turns out, haha!) If it breaks flyin off the stairs... i'll just take it down to Thin Air. They've had every other sled i own in their shop! For now...good night all, im gonna go lay in bed and fall asleep to some "Elevation 3". (that was for you Jeff!)Are you gonna be able to ride this winter Jeff? I have been watching your progress closely because my daughter had a spinal fusion a couple weeks before u, and they say she can't ride for a year? can't even go back to school till next year, so far.
you bet. i'm a pretty honery SOB besides, i did not have the fusion surgery (specifically because i didn't want to miss the season.) i had the microdiscectomy from the back of the neck...riskier but way faster recovery.
the fusion is the right way to go but i couldn't miss the season...no matter what. if i don't do well this winter, i will get the fusion in the spring...once the snow melts of course. how's your daughter doing?
So... 'til then, guess i'll just sprinkle a bag of powder sugar on the hardwood floors in the house and run the 'ol R/C M-7!
thanks...i think.
jeff
For any one that cares
But I know no one care. What a shame!!!!!!!!!!
Hey John,
Whatcha saying there? Does that mean we are going to have rain instead of snow up high? Speak to me o-wise-one
i think what john is saying is that the models are showing up to 8 inches of liquid precip. usually, the rule of thumb is 2 feet of snow (above 6K) for every 1 inch of water that falls in the adjacent lowlands.
however...8 inches of rain would be catastrophic flood level rain (not to mention 16 feet of snow), both are highly unlikely. the NWS in hanford down here is downplaying next week's event now citing some discrepancies in the GFS and EWCMF models. still if it's calling for 8 inches of rain and misses by more than half...we're still in the money.
jeff
however...8 inches of rain would be catastrophic flood level rain (not to mention 16 feet of snow), both are highly unlikely. the NWS in hanford down here is downplaying next week's event now citing some discrepancies in the GFS and EWCMF models. still if it's calling for 8 inches of rain and misses by more than half...we're still in the money.
jeff
I was talking about the 10 days. The 13th thou the 22. And 8 inches over 10 days is not bad. IMHO And I alway thought that our Sierra Cement was more like 8 to 1 = 8 inches heavy concrete. And when it is nice dry powder it runs 14 to 1. But I'm probably wrong on that one????
Here is the lates from SFO
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. INITIALLY THIS WILL ONLY MEAN SOME COOLING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT DURING NEXT WEEKEND A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES FARTHER AND AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD TOWARDS ALASKA. ALLOWING A VERY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY DEC 15TH IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. PARTICULARLY IF THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS (Global Forecast System) IS CORRECT. THE GFS FORECASTS AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A TRAJECTORY CENTERED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE WHICH WOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE WEEK AHEAD UNFOLDS AND ISSUE APPROPRIATE STATEMENTS IF THE MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.
And the lates GFS
Has rain starting on the 13th but only get bewteen 1 and 2 inches no over the 10 days.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. INITIALLY THIS WILL ONLY MEAN SOME COOLING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT DURING NEXT WEEKEND A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES FARTHER AND AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD TOWARDS ALASKA. ALLOWING A VERY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY DEC 15TH IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. PARTICULARLY IF THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS (Global Forecast System) IS CORRECT. THE GFS FORECASTS AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A TRAJECTORY CENTERED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE WHICH WOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE WEEK AHEAD UNFOLDS AND ISSUE APPROPRIATE STATEMENTS IF THE MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE ON THE WETTER SOLUTION.
And the lates GFS
Has rain starting on the 13th but only get bewteen 1 and 2 inches no over the 10 days.
it's all a crapshoot...down here, it works for us if there's an 1inch of rain at say bass lake or even clovis, we usually see 2 feet up at cold springs summit (7K). that is all subject to the variations you mentioned (warm storm vs cold storm).
my guess, after looking at the latest deal here is that it would be safe to say the sierra will get at least a couple of feet and maybe up to 4 or 5 feet by the time it all clears out and where it hits the best. snow levels are low for this one around 2 to 3K right now.
let's get it on!!
jeff
A
Anthony Oberti
Well-known member
Hope it pans out.....about time to get this winter rolling!
John you are correct. Sierras Snow to liquid ratios run 5-1 during Pipneapple express storms to 20-1 during very cold storms. Snow to liquid ratios change as you change elevations. There area ton of factors are related to snow liquid ratios. Dendrict snow growth, wind, forcing, available moisture but the basics are upper level temps (heights) and surface temps.
If the valley recieved 1" of rain and the West Slope recieved 2' of snow than most likely the west slope recieved more precip due to orographic enhancement. (upsloping) It is not uncommon for Orogrphics in the Sierras to contribute to a Doubling or tripling of precip values from the valley.
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Regardless of what happens just getting enough snow to cover the ground for Xmas is huge. I couldn't deal with dirt on the ground up here for the holidays.
Woke up this morning to a "dusting" of snow here in Elko and the Rubies obscurred by a wall of snow clouds! Probably wont amount to much more than a "dusting", any precip yesterday in Cali?
Typical utah snow runs about 6-9% density... translation, 1" of rain = 14-16" pow pow. The Rubies can get storms that will be 4-5% density. You think utah pow is dry and fluffy you should see the rubies on a very cold dumper storm... but hey lets keep that a secret
plus there is too many rocks out there anyways!Did i mention 8-12" today in Utah? hahaha suckers!!!
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