H
HappyJack
Well-known member
Avy Forecast 3.26
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Front Range
Issued 03/25/2010 8:05 AM by Simon Trautman
Highlights
Although rapid settlement and mild temperatures have decreased the avalanche danger, natural and human triggered avalanches are still likely on steep exposed slopes at higher elevations. yesterdays snow totals are as follows: 5 to 8 inches of snow fell west of the Divide; 5 to 8 around Cameron Pass; about 10 inches around Bear Lake; Eldora/James Peak area the big winner with around 13 inches, and the ski area reporting 18 inches; and over a foot around Glen Cove on Pikes Peak.
Avalanche Danger
The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is HIGH above treeline on N-E-S aspects. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on all other aspects near and above treeline. The danger is MODERATE below treeline. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely on steep leeward slopes at higher elevations.
Snow & Avalanche Discussion
The recent storm favored areas east of the Continental Divide, and south of Rocky Mountain National Park.The eastern front received ~20" of storm snow, while Berthoud and Loveland Pass only recorded 6-8". Strong but variable winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning moved some of the new snow around, and observers report highly erratic loading patterns. Skies cleared Wednesday afternoon and caused rapid settlement and surficial crusting in the new snow on solar aspects.
The snowpack never likes sudden changes, and yesterday it suffered a big one. The new snow is fairly dense, around 10%. In many places the higher density snow is bonded well to the older snow surface. The avalanche problem will be found on slopes where heavy new snow has been deposited on shallow, weak snow (such as steep, rocky westerly aspects that have been thin this year), or on shaded aspects where faceted weak layers exist. Last week observers reported extensive near surface faceting and surface hoar development on northerly aspects. I expect that these layers still exist in shaded pockets on NW-N-NE aspects, and due to thir variable distribution may lead to tricky forecasting.
Under that old surface, the old snowpack has been gaining some strength. Shaded areas below treeline with a shallow snowpack remain weak and heavily faceted, and avalanches could plow down to the ground through the old weak snow. Deep weak layers remain a potential problem in isolated areas near treeline, and new snow avalanches could step down to these deeper layers.
Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes today. As the winds pick up this afternoon, expect the danger to rise on leeward slopes. Yesterday's settling and crust development on westward slopes may keep wind transport at moderate levels, but the higher gusts in more exposed areas will be able to dig into and move the new snow
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Front Range
Issued 03/25/2010 8:05 AM by Simon Trautman
Highlights
Although rapid settlement and mild temperatures have decreased the avalanche danger, natural and human triggered avalanches are still likely on steep exposed slopes at higher elevations. yesterdays snow totals are as follows: 5 to 8 inches of snow fell west of the Divide; 5 to 8 around Cameron Pass; about 10 inches around Bear Lake; Eldora/James Peak area the big winner with around 13 inches, and the ski area reporting 18 inches; and over a foot around Glen Cove on Pikes Peak.
Avalanche Danger
The avalanche danger for the Front Range zone is HIGH above treeline on N-E-S aspects. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on all other aspects near and above treeline. The danger is MODERATE below treeline. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely on steep leeward slopes at higher elevations.
Snow & Avalanche Discussion
The recent storm favored areas east of the Continental Divide, and south of Rocky Mountain National Park.The eastern front received ~20" of storm snow, while Berthoud and Loveland Pass only recorded 6-8". Strong but variable winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning moved some of the new snow around, and observers report highly erratic loading patterns. Skies cleared Wednesday afternoon and caused rapid settlement and surficial crusting in the new snow on solar aspects.
The snowpack never likes sudden changes, and yesterday it suffered a big one. The new snow is fairly dense, around 10%. In many places the higher density snow is bonded well to the older snow surface. The avalanche problem will be found on slopes where heavy new snow has been deposited on shallow, weak snow (such as steep, rocky westerly aspects that have been thin this year), or on shaded aspects where faceted weak layers exist. Last week observers reported extensive near surface faceting and surface hoar development on northerly aspects. I expect that these layers still exist in shaded pockets on NW-N-NE aspects, and due to thir variable distribution may lead to tricky forecasting.
Under that old surface, the old snowpack has been gaining some strength. Shaded areas below treeline with a shallow snowpack remain weak and heavily faceted, and avalanches could plow down to the ground through the old weak snow. Deep weak layers remain a potential problem in isolated areas near treeline, and new snow avalanches could step down to these deeper layers.
Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes today. As the winds pick up this afternoon, expect the danger to rise on leeward slopes. Yesterday's settling and crust development on westward slopes may keep wind transport at moderate levels, but the higher gusts in more exposed areas will be able to dig into and move the new snow
