Major Slowdown Coming.

[Fosgate]

I'm in the auto body business and I was chatting last night with my cousin who is a current machinist and buys and sells a lot of variety of machining products from abroad by the shipping container. We were chatting over beer with a few of his friends. In our conversation I mentioned the supply chain issues we were seeing. Had not been able to find a Toyota Tundra door in over 5 months. Had to pay $1500 for Sequoia a used door (OEM was $775), swap the power units etc plus throw 10 hours of labor ($70 per hour) to repair the damage door to make it usable. Something we discouraged but the customer desperately needed their truck back at the ranch. Others, We get a Right Rear door on order, box says right rear and we open it and it's the Right Front. Send it back and the next one is the same way. It's not just one manufacturer, they are all doing it. It's an absolute train wreck. Vehicles that should be in and out within 2 weeks are now sitting waiting for 2+ months and everyone is in dismay they are without their vehicle for so long.

Cousin chimes in, Shipping containers of product for the last 5 years has been costing him on average $15-18k. Last few weeks he's been getting called and asked if he is going to order anything. Currently $1000 per shipping container of product!

Another guy chimes in and said they just finished signing a contact for their fleet of semis (large transportation co) and their fuel supplier refused to bend at the first offer of $8 per gallon! Last year it was $4 and that was a lot. They are speculating fuel is going to be astronomical very soon.

My cousin and two others that run machine shops said their steel distributors that would not give them the time of day unless they placed a large order, are now calling 2-3 times a week begging for orders of any size. Stuff is cheap and readily available. Machines that normally go quick at sales are just sitting there unsold. My cousin has had one of his best years ever though.

All I'm saying is that this talk of the UTV market going soft, guys cancelling snow checks thinking next year to order will be better. ... It's not going to get better, manufacturing is already feeling the effect. Next year is only going to be worse. Have your head on a swivel and get your finances in order. There is certainly going to be something big coming.

 

[leisureexpress]

Not going to disagree at all.

**** has been weird for many months now.

 

[Hawkster]

Think there's still people denying this ? The grocery stores know it and have been complaining for some time now telling customers there's some things they can no longer get on a regular basis.

Been in lowes and home depot this week, unfinished 3/8 pine beedboard $50.00 a sheet, douglas fir T1-11 is $95.00 a sheet.

Was there even a black Friday zoo?

Picked up some kibble for the monster and this bag expiration is 2023 the one before was 2024.

 

[Fosgate]

Think there's still people denying this ? The grocery stores know it and have been complaining for some time now telling customers there's some things they can no longer get on a regular basis.

Been in lowes and home depot this week, unfinished 3/8 pine beedboard $50.00 a sheet, douglas fir T1-11 is $95.00 a sheet.

Was there even a black Friday zoo?

Picked up some kibble for the monster and this bag expiration is 2023 the one before was 2024.

I went out 8am Black Friday through Lowes, Autozone and Walmart to pickup and exchange some items I needed for working on a sled that day. It was like a ghost town. Walmart had maybe as many people as employees in it. Had about as many people in it as at 4am on a regular weekday. People kept saying they think more people are buying online this year. Yesterday I was listening to the radio business financials and hear how retails are reporting "less than lack luster sales." I have a feeling it's going to be dismissed as I really have not heard much talk about results yet and normally every news org has commented on it by now.

I also noticed in a few stores how the shelves product selections are slowly not being restocked while product is being pulled forward over night, its not being refilled. Walked by a sliced potatoes three nights in a row and see the same two dented cans still sitting there. Just observations I'm noticing. But that space would have never been empty like that for more than a day.

My thoughts are we'll see crap like when I was a kid in the 70's. Anyone who remembers the soup lines in the cities when we were kids and the unemployment lines wrapping around city blocks. He'll even in small towns people lined up for Govt Milk and Cheese. (I'd like some govt cheese, stuff was bomb, but not what it takes to get it.) Just wait till these generations of Millennials and later get a whiff of some of that crap and worse. They are already starting to turn NYC to the last 70's when thieves would hang out in groups around Times Square taking turns robbing people. These younger generations have no idea what's coming.

 

[Hawkster]

I've been seeing and hearing exactly what you pointed out. here.

People kept saying they think more people are buying online this year. Yesterday I was listening to the radio business financials and hear how retails are reporting "less than lack luster sales." I have a feeling it's going to be dismissed as I really have not heard much talk about results yet and normally every news org has commented on it by now.

Isn't amazon doing a huge lay off, remember when employees went on a strike at the beginning of this BS, Seen it coming.

Also remember BNSF going on strike over thier credit system and Buffet got a court order stopping the strike. Now diaper boy is taking it to the supreme court to fight a strike, the government is taking complete control.

One of the federal cargo plane contractor's has a new small logo close to the tail section that is now yellow, usps, I about **** when I seen that.

The work force in a lot of industries has completely turned over. The postal people come at all times of the day, I've seen them at 7:00 a.m. and as late as 9:00 p.m. That was kind of normal with the delivery at certain times of the year but now it's the norm.

The smaller businesses with trucks I give a large birth, drivers are doing some really stupid **** then there's people movers and buses , something got passed to get drivers.

Speaking of which, there is a big fight going on over closing a couple of schools, student population has dropped not because of teacher shortages one side claims.

All the warning signs are playing threw, those that don't or are just waking up are in for a horror show.

 

[NEWDUCK]

Utah must be on its own brainwave. Everywhere is packed with people. BUY BUY BUY. A costco opened up last week. They already ran out of parking spots.

$1000 container full of machinist tools??? Ill take ten!

 

[Hawkster]

Gov. Cox announces Afghan Community Fund to help refugees

SALT LAKE CITY (Oct. 19, 2021) — Today Gov. Spencer J. Cox, along with officials from Zions Bank, World Trade Center Utah, Utah’s refugee resettlement network and the Afghan community, announced the launch of the Afghan Community Fund. The fund will ensure Utah is prepared to welcome and support...

governor.utah.gov

Utah is struggling to reach newly arrived Ukrainian refugees

A federal program called Uniting for Ukraine was announced that allows Americans to become sponsors of refugees fleeing the country.

www.axios.com

 

[Hawkster]

Utah must be on its own brainwave. Everywhere is packed with people. BUY BUY BUY. A costco opened up last week. They already ran out of parking spots.

$1000 container full of machinist tools??? Ill take ten!

Your right in a way, the international airport here has been ranked as #4, a few years back when the economy was doing much better employees where leaving because the airport was slowing down BECAUSE planes no longer needed to stop, newer technology, but would just fly over.

Just seen a private military personal fly in yesterday afternoon , why ? Don't they have thier own damn airport a mile away? Yes , are they so busy that they can't land over there but have air space cleared till they land ? This is now the norm, military and federal contractors have greatly outnumbered commercial flights here. It's insane

 

[stum1967]

I am not a financial wizard by any means, but I think the **** will hit the fan in January. A lot of people over spent on cars, toys, homes and were living really tight to make it work. With the high gas and grocery prices and cost of everything else on the rise, people have been putting more daily expenses on credit. Facing the highest heating costs people have ever paid might be the straw that breaks the camels back.

 

[brookser]

I'm in the auto body business and I was chatting last night with my cousin who is a current machinist and buys and sells a lot of variety of machining products from abroad by the shipping container. We were chatting over beer with a few of his friends. In our conversation I mentioned the supply chain issues we were seeing. Had not been able to find a Toyota Tundra door in over 5 months. Had to pay $1500 for Sequoia a used door (OEM was $775), swap the power units etc plus throw 10 hours of labor ($70 per hour) to repair the damage door to make it usable. Something we discouraged but the customer desperately needed their truck back at the ranch. Others, We get a Right Rear door on order, box says right rear and we open it and it's the Right Front. Send it back and the next one is the same way. It's not just one manufacturer, they are all doing it. It's an absolute train wreck. Vehicles that should be in and out within 2 weeks are now sitting waiting for 2+ months and everyone is in dismay they are without their vehicle for so long.

Cousin chimes in, Shipping containers of product for the last 5 years has been costing him on average $15-18k. Last few weeks he's been getting called and asked if he is going to order anything. Currently $1000 per shipping container of product!

Another guy chimes in and said they just finished signing a contact for their fleet of semis (large transportation co) and their fuel supplier refused to bend at the first offer of $8 per gallon! Last year it was $4 and that was a lot. They are speculating fuel is going to be astronomical very soon.

My cousin and two others that run machine shops said their steel distributors that would not give them the time of day unless they placed a large order, are now calling 2-3 times a week begging for orders of any size. Stuff is cheap and readily available. Machines that normally go quick at sales are just sitting there unsold. My cousin has had one of his best years ever though. One of the folks there was in gun business and said that shipment prices on stuff increased drastically(he's working with a lot of dropshipping businessess as well as directly with gun retailers like Glock, Sig Sauer and Remington)
All I'm saying is that this talk of the UTV market going soft, guys cancelling snow checks thinking next year to order will be better. ... It's not going to get better, manufacturing is already feeling the effect. Next year is only going to be worse. Have your head on a swivel and get your finances in order. There is certainly going to be something big coming.

Fuel and energy prices affecting literally everything else, bumping prices on everything and it's not going to get any better in next 3-4 months at least, probably a whole year even. Gas already is at insane price, energy going to increase by a lot during winter too I'd guess.

 

[Fosgate]

Parts just went bad to worse. Used to get 1 out of 10 “back ordered with no ETA.” I ordered parts yesterday for vehicles coming in for body repairs next week. 5 out of 10 have back ordered parts with no eta.


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