Expect lots more snow
WE COULD BE IN FOR A MAJOR STORM OVER THE PRESIDENTS DAY PERIOD.
Sunday, February 08, 2009 11:03:29 AM
NEXT STORM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AM TO BRING 4 TO 7 INCHES AT THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH AND UP TO A FOOT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY NOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE DRIFTS MUCH DEEPER THAN THAT. THE NEW 12Z SUNDAY CANADIAN HAS A DOUBLE VORT STRUCTURE WITH ONE VORT CENTER CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF TAHOE AND THE OTHER PRETTY MUCH OVER MAMMOTH AT 4:00AM MONDAY. A -33C ISOTHERM AT 500MB IS OVER MAMMOTH AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL NO DOUBT BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA...BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS.....MOSTLY DURING A TIME WHEN MOST FOLKS WILL BE ASLEEP. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE....THEN SHOWERY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
LA NINA RELOADING......TROPICAL FORCING STUCK AT 130E TO 140 EAST.......EXTENDING FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN TO THE SPCZ.......SPELLS A LONG WET PERIOD....POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY FOR CALIFORNIA.
DISCUSSIONS:
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES....BOTH THE EC AND GFS, ARE BOTH PAINTING QUITE A WET PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE OF 1 TO 2 WEEKS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA AND BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CALIFORNIA. RECENTLY, THE STORM TRACK HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH BENEFITING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF THE STATE, THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ON EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA....THIS IS DUE IN PART OF THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII. IN TIME.....THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST....PROVIDING A DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH FOR SHORT WAVES, THAT WILL BRING HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TO A LARGER AREA OF CALIFORNIA. FOR THE SIERRA, THE BULLS EYE FOR MAX PRECIPITATION IS OFTEN TIMES JUST NORTH AND SOUTH OF AN AREA BETWEEN THE 558DM AND 552DM HEIGHT LINES WITH THE UPPER JET CYCLONICLY CURVED IN AN OFF SHORE UPPER TROF. THE MEANS, DAY + 11 FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHTS 00Z GFS HAD THE 552DM HEIGHT LINE OVER MAMMOTH. AND THE UPPER TROF AT 130WEST. THE DWEEBS LIKE THAT A LOT!!!! WE COULD BE IN FOR A MAJOR STORM OVER THE PRESIDENTS DAY PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME, SMALLER SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. AGAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITHIN THE TWO FAVORED MODELS.
