You are absolutely right. I do not know Jack Schit about the FACTS of this tragedy. Right now, NO ONE does. However, I do think I have some fairly good ideas about what may have happened or at least what may have contributed to this accident. My years as an accident investigator as I pointed out earlier and my years as the head of the Safety Team at my airline give me a little insight into these things. Sorry you disagree, I am sure you are much more qualified in this subject.
plane crash in butte kills 17 mostly kids
- Thread starter Blu Du
- Start date
You are absolutely right. I do not know Jack Schit about the FACTS of this tragedy. Right now, NO ONE does. However, I do think I have some fairly good ideas about what may have happened or at least what may have contributed to this accident. My years as an accident investigator as I pointed out earlier and my years as the head of the Safety Team at my airline give me a little insight into these things. Sorry you disagree, I am sure you are much more qualified in this subject.
I have ZERO qualifications to judge what happened in this accident, although I am a pilot (as I believe RMK7 also is)..... but neither he or I have speculated on what happened.
One thing that needs to be pointed out is the fact that just because an airplane has 6 seats or 12 seats or 151 seats does not mean that aircraft can safely hold that many people. The limiting factor is weight and balance considerations. You must stay within the limitations and to do that it depends upon how much fuel you need to carry to get safely to your destination and jet fuel weights 6.7 pounds per gallon. Depends upon how much weight in baggage you are carrying. Depends on the temperature, runway alititude, runway slope, runway condition etc of the takeoff and landing airport. There are many weights to consider, taxi weight, takeoff weight, landing weight and all those must be within the limitations of both runways and conditions. There are many factors to consider.
And I am sure you are aware there are pilots and there are pilots. I think some may me more qualified to speculate. Every investigation begins with speculations upon arriving at the crash scene and from there the facts will eventually be found. Sometimes, sometimes the whole accident remains a speculation by professionals doing the best they can.
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decarls
Member
By chance the lady that was being dropped off at the terminal when you recieved the parking ticket???
Good insight by the way, nice to hear from someone who has first hand knowledge of these things.
I was going to ask the same thing. Who's the cutie?
I am not a pilot although I wish I was. I have MS flight simulator at home and I love "flying" the King Air.
I am not a pilot although I wish I was. I have MS flight simulator at home and I love "flying" the King Air.
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RMK7SledHead
Well-known member
-BS Aerospace Engineering
-PP/SEL/IA 400TT
-4 years designing a 330kt airplane from the ground up, seeing it fly, and being one of the 4 engineers involved in its design and testing.
-Having lost many friends now in GA aircraft accidents where we did have the data from the crash, and being the second person to see this data, after all the "speculation" was over and done with, it was never really close...
I'm glad you had a long career as a pilot (even with the goofy mustache), but I will hold to my statement that even with all your "qualifications" you ARE NOT qualified to make statements concerning what happened IN THIS ACCIDENT. The number of passengers on board may, or may not, have been a contributing factor. You can not, with a straight face, tell me that two extra kids under the age of 10 would affect the handling characteristics of a PC-12/45 one bit. You could load that airplane 500 lbs over gross and not have one single problem flying it.
Oh, I interviewed with Pilatus back in October for a job too...decided to become a Marine instead...
I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I feel qualified to state that it was a bird strike.
I found this on another forum about the Fedex accident:
Quote:
I have 3100 hrs on MD-11's. This situation was demonstrated in the Sim.
The landing seemed normal except the nose came down too fast.
The reversers are popped as soon as the mains touch. #2 reverser causes the nose to pitch up slightly, the spoilers open (which cause a really big pitch up) at the same time that someone pulls back to stop the nose hitting. The aircraft is airborne...but the reversers are deployed..can't go around. Stuff the nose over and try to salvage the landing.
Sad. RIP
-BS Aerospace Engineering
-PP/SEL/IA 400TT
-4 years designing a 330kt airplane from the ground up, seeing it fly, and being one of the 4 engineers involved in its design and testing.
-Having lost many friends now in GA aircraft accidents where we did have the data from the crash, and being the second person to see this data, after all the "speculation" was over and done with, it was never really close...
I'm glad you had a long career as a pilot (even with the goofy mustache), but I will hold to my statement that even with all your "qualifications" you ARE NOT qualified to make statements concerning what happened IN THIS ACCIDENT. The number of passengers on board may, or may not, have been a contributing factor. You can not, with a straight face, tell me that two extra kids under the age of 10 would affect the handling characteristics of a PC-12/45 one bit. You could load that airplane 500 lbs over gross and not have one single problem flying it.
Oh, I interviewed with Pilatus back in October for a job too...decided to become a Marine instead...
I am not going to argue with you as it would do no good. I guess we will have to wait and see what the official cause is determined to be, not that it will be the truth however. The fact the aircraft was being illegally flown may give some insight as to the pilots character and abilities.
Actually I can tell you with a straight face that I think that aircraft was overloaded and unsafe being out of limits. Even on the jets that I flew for the airline I would never leave the gate if my aircraft was 500 pounds overweight. Maybe that is one reason I have flown over 25,000 hours during my career without ever hurting a passenger. I guess that is just me but I am proud of that fact.
Are you aware that having 400 hours is about the most dangerous point a pilot has in his career. That is the point that a lot of pilots think they know it all but in reality they are very dangerous with being way too confident in the abilities they do not have nor the experience they do not have. I am not saying this to piss you off or make fun of you, just pointing out the facts. Experience takes many years and once you are there you can look back and laugh at yourself and your ego even if you have a goofy mustache or a funky looking mole on the side of your head !!. I think it is good you became a Marine but I also think as a Marine you need to learn a little respect. Your posting to me on here did not remind me of a Marine Officer. I know about Marines, my brother was one. I had a Marine General flying co-pilot for me at times on the Boeing 737 and he showed me a lot more respect than you have here. However I do realize I only have something over 25,000 hours of flight time and forty years of experience to base my speculations on and you have what you claim to be 400 hours of flight time and you are how old and have how many years of flying experience as a professional pilot? Don't let those butter bars go to your head and congrats for getting them, that is an accomplishment. Was gonna give you the beer glass sign but can't find it.
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MPS
Well-known member
Ok the plane is certified for 12 people (usually flown with 6-9 adults), saying the average adult is 170? They had 10 adults and 7 children....so lets say each kid is 50 lbs....so that would put the plane right at the max for people.....not to mention the massive amount of gear they had to have. They had to have snowboards/skis and gear, plus regular luggage. Im not a pilot and Im not qualified to say what happened....but it is common sense that the pilot overloaded this aircraft and to me that is inexcusable to take a risk like that, especially for a ski trip and especially with 7 kids! I am not going to slam anyone on that plane except the pilot, you can flame me all you want....but it is obvious negligence even if the weight didn't cause the accident. He damn well knew he was right at the max weight with people and he damn well knew all the luggage for that amount of people put them over....but Im sure he thought it wasn't that much over and they would be fine. What snowmobiler....because the pilot is dead that means we can't talk about his obvious negligence. And yes when people take stupid risks and cause avalanches I am gonna call it out so it doesn't happen to other people. But I guess you can just not say a word and let it happen to others.
Remember the kid that died at Jefferson? He was buried a couple hours earlier up to his neck, but they kept riding and caused the 2nd one killing him. That kind of irresponsibility needs to be called out. I have respect for the dead, but I don't have respect for stupid decisions! No I shouldn' have called the pilot a dumb a$$, but his decision sure as hell was! May all of them rest in peace.
She is just what you said, "a nice tight little package"
She is not a natural blonde either, can't you tell that by looking at her eyelashes, jeesh.Here's my question: What parent, or any adult for that matter, allows their kids to board an aircraft with more people than seats? Even if the pilot had told them it was ok, someone should have thrown a red flag and questioned the thought of 17 in a 12 place plane.
On another note, to those criticizing the pilot & calling him names, the fact is he is dead along with 16 other innocent people. Although it is likely he made bad decisions, all that can be done is to find as many facts about this accident and learn from them to prevent it from happening again in the future. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families to all involved, as well as to all involved with the Fed Ex crash. I am a pilot as well and hate seeing this happen in our aviation family.
On another note, to those criticizing the pilot & calling him names, the fact is he is dead along with 16 other innocent people. Although it is likely he made bad decisions, all that can be done is to find as many facts about this accident and learn from them to prevent it from happening again in the future. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families to all involved, as well as to all involved with the Fed Ex crash. I am a pilot as well and hate seeing this happen in our aviation family.
It will be interesting to know what the final NTSB findings will be. A PC-12 has a pretty good glide ratio, one of the best if i'm not mistaken. Having more pax than seats is a little concerning.
One could speculate it was inside the CG envelope and once the fuel burned off it was out of the envelope and maybe once in a different configuration it was uncontrollable, who knows. I would think the PC-12 could handle a little more weight in the centre cabin which most pax would be sitting.
We could sit here all day and Monday morning quarterback it to death !
One could speculate it was inside the CG envelope and once the fuel burned off it was out of the envelope and maybe once in a different configuration it was uncontrollable, who knows. I would think the PC-12 could handle a little more weight in the centre cabin which most pax would be sitting.
We could sit here all day and Monday morning quarterback it to death !
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skidoorulz
Well-known member
Here is my speculation, and I definatley am not qualified to judge. The story said 14 souls on a 12 pasenger airplane. First thought, Overloaded? But then you read 7 adults and 7 children. They give the ages of 3 of those children. Those 3 were age 4 and under. Then they say all the adults were College freinds, so I assume that the other 4 children were more than likly all less than 5 years old. With that said was the plane overloaded weight wise? Maybe maybe not. We are all assuming that since these people were going skiing that the plane had tons of luggage, Maybe maybe not. Do these people rent their stuff when coming to Montana? Do they own a second home or a Townhome or a Condo at Big Sky where they leave all their ski stuff at and come up here 2 or 3 times a month? This is all stuff we do not know. It also reparted that the plane made 1 stop in Calif for fuel, so with that said was it low on fuel? Judging by the fire probably not. Right now there are more questions than answers and I am not going to judge anyone until the NTSB releases their report 18 months from now. Which by then we will have forgotten all about it. For got to add that it was 14 souls not 17. And as far as seats to passenger ratio. Commercial airlines allow children to sit on parents laps all the time so as not having to pay for seat. And some of these choldren may have been in carriers, it does not say the age of 4 of them.
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When an accident happens whether it be in a car an airplane or a boat or whatever there is always speculation. Some people are more qualified to speculate than others depending upon their personal experiences with the situation. People can learn a lot by studying accidents and how they happened. When an airline has an accident it is studied and speculated to death by all the pilots that fly for the airlines. That is how you prevent future accidents, by learning from ones that happen. One thing that is common in all aircraft accidents is that they always result from a "chain" of errors. I like to speculate aloud with other people who have knowledge similar to my own, it is a learning experience and those who are less experienced who want to learn should listen, they might learn something.
This airplane apparently went into the ground at a very steep angle. Could have been a structural failure.? Speculation, yes. Aircraft carry fuel (weight) in their wings for a reason. In the DC-10 for instance you burn the fuselage fuel first and then the wing fuel. If you burned all the fuel out of the wings first all the remaining weight would be in the center of the jet and the wings would simply just break and fold up because their would be no weight holding them down. This could be a factor in this accident. Speculation? yes. Doesn't hurt to speculate while waiting for the official cause that probably won't come for a year and even then the official cause may be nothing more that professional experienced speculation.
This airplane apparently went into the ground at a very steep angle. Could have been a structural failure.? Speculation, yes. Aircraft carry fuel (weight) in their wings for a reason. In the DC-10 for instance you burn the fuselage fuel first and then the wing fuel. If you burned all the fuel out of the wings first all the remaining weight would be in the center of the jet and the wings would simply just break and fold up because their would be no weight holding them down. This could be a factor in this accident. Speculation? yes. Doesn't hurt to speculate while waiting for the official cause that probably won't come for a year and even then the official cause may be nothing more that professional experienced speculation.
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skidoorulz
Well-known member
Just said the pilot was an ex Air force pilot with 8500 hours and 2000 of them with that particular aircraft. It also said that it flew through a layer of air that was condusive to icing. Speculation? Yes But sounds like he may have known the aircraft and its abilities pretty well.
Hey Skidoo, you ever been out to Fishtail? Used to be a place there that served a pretty good steak. That was years ago however. I used to go to Absaroka where a friend of mine's dad had a ranch and fish the Stillwater River.
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skidoorulz
Well-known member
Little Cowboy Bar? Or are you thinking of the bar that was owned by Jack Hanna just down the road at Dean?
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