Avalanche hazard forecast today:
http://www.nwac.us/forecast/avalanche/current/zone/5/
…AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THURSDAY…
Thursday: High avalanche danger above 4000 feet and considerable below. Avalanche danger slightly decreasing Thursday night.
Friday: High avalanche danger above 5000 feet and considerable below especially steep slopes warmed by the sun. Avalanche danger further slightly decreasing Friday night.
Outlook for Saturday: High avalanche danger above 6000 feet and considerable below especially steep slopes warmed by the sun. Avalanche danger further slightly decreasing Saturday night.
Snowpack Analysis
The latest in a series of unseasonably strong fronts crossed the Northwest Wednesday night. The front was accompanied by strong southwest winds shifting to west, heavy snowfall and cooling temperatures. New snowfall ending Thursday morning ranges from 10-20 inches near and west of the crest with probably about half as much east of the crest. This rapid snow build up is very likely to have built new unstable storm slab layers on lee slopes. This should have been mainly north to southeast slopes at higher elevations.
Detailed Forecasts
Thursday
Further west winds and moderate to heavy snow showers should be seen on Thursday. Another 6-12” or more new snowfall is possible near and west of the crest on Thursday with perhaps about half as much east of the crest. This should further build or maintain new storm slab layers on lee slopes. This should continue to be mainly north to southeast slopes at higher elevations. Natural or human triggered avalanches are likely on Thursday. Back country travel in avalanche terrain especially at higher elevations not recommended on Thursday. Decreasing winds and showers should cause a slight decrease in the avalanche danger Thursday night.
Friday and Saturday
Light snow showers mainly near and west of the crest should end with light winds on Friday morning. Dry weather and light winds should be seen the remainder of Friday and Saturday. A concern on Friday and Saturday should be lingering potential slab layers on lee slopes. These layers should slightly stabilize Friday and Saturday. But cautious route finding and careful snow pack evaluation on previous lee slopes should remain essential on Friday and Saturday.
The other major concern on Friday and Saturday will be sun effects on the new heavy snowfall. Rapid warming is likely to destabilize new surface snow layers. Remember that natural snowballing and smaller natural loose snow avalanches are a sign of increasing sun induced loose snow instability. Loose snow avalanches could trigger wet slab avalanches. Upper snow pack loose or slab avalanches could entrain or trigger deeper layers. This should be most likely on steep slopes facing the sun but should also be likely on other aspects warmed by the sun now that it is April. Be wary of sun effects on the recent very heavy snowfall!!
The avalanche danger should decrease during the night time hours Friday and Saturday.
The pinpoint weather forecast:
Point Forecast: Mt Baker WA
48.76°N 121.81°W (Elev. 7042 ft) Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 5:04 am PDT Apr 8, 2010
Forecast Valid: 12pm PDT Apr 8, 2010-6pm PDT Apr 14, 2010
Winter Storm Warning
Avalanche Warning
This Afternoon: Snow showers. High near 15. West wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 8. West southwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Friday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. West southwest wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Southwest wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26. East wind around 8 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Monday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
