Hey Utah peeps! Things are about to get real here in Utah. In my opinion the perfect storm is brewing avalanche wise. I want you all to be safe and go home to your families. Here is what I am seeing and why I think the week after Christmas could be deadly if sledders aren't paying attention.
1st. The current snow pack consists of low density snow sitting on top of a rotten sugary layer at the ground. Pretty typical early season snow pack.
2nd. The storms lined up to pound us over the next few days are going to be warmer and a lot more wind associated with them. What this means is this denser snow will likely compact even more with the winds leaving us with a supportive wind slab sitting on top of the light garbage snow underneath. What scares me most about this scenario is that heavy, dense and supportive wind slabs often will "feel" safe. They will often support a sled and rider on some slopes giving a false sense of security. When these types of avy's do break, they do so after luring the rider well out onto the slope and usually break well above the rider. If the avy breaks on a rider on a slope that hasn't been a part of a natural avy cycle, it's going to the ground and will have large VW bug sized chunks of snow barreling down the mountain with it. I don't think an avy bag will keep you from getting crushed by some of those types of chunks of snow. Scary and likely survivable.
3rd. We have been snow starved in Utah for multiple years and pretty lean so far this year. If it pans out there will be a lot of folks ready to hit the mountain.
4th. Lots of people will have time off over the holidays and will be hitting the mountain and testing their new rides and new set ups.
Please, please be careful and play smart out there. There will be days during and after this storm cycle that will be bad and some of these types of dense wind slabs can be really persistent and stick around for a while.
Lastly, all of this is a preemptive idea of what can happen IF these storms come in as forecasted. Keep an eye on Craigs updates on the UAC site and let's each help keep our fellow sledders aware and alive.
1st. The current snow pack consists of low density snow sitting on top of a rotten sugary layer at the ground. Pretty typical early season snow pack.
2nd. The storms lined up to pound us over the next few days are going to be warmer and a lot more wind associated with them. What this means is this denser snow will likely compact even more with the winds leaving us with a supportive wind slab sitting on top of the light garbage snow underneath. What scares me most about this scenario is that heavy, dense and supportive wind slabs often will "feel" safe. They will often support a sled and rider on some slopes giving a false sense of security. When these types of avy's do break, they do so after luring the rider well out onto the slope and usually break well above the rider. If the avy breaks on a rider on a slope that hasn't been a part of a natural avy cycle, it's going to the ground and will have large VW bug sized chunks of snow barreling down the mountain with it. I don't think an avy bag will keep you from getting crushed by some of those types of chunks of snow. Scary and likely survivable.
3rd. We have been snow starved in Utah for multiple years and pretty lean so far this year. If it pans out there will be a lot of folks ready to hit the mountain.
4th. Lots of people will have time off over the holidays and will be hitting the mountain and testing their new rides and new set ups.
Please, please be careful and play smart out there. There will be days during and after this storm cycle that will be bad and some of these types of dense wind slabs can be really persistent and stick around for a while.
Lastly, all of this is a preemptive idea of what can happen IF these storms come in as forecasted. Keep an eye on Craigs updates on the UAC site and let's each help keep our fellow sledders aware and alive.
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