Your SW Acronym of the Day

[The Fourth Wolf]

FLAM: Flatland Avalanche Magnet

I'm going to get some little red dots for this but that's OK.
You guys from the midwest have got to stop making riding decisions based on your vacation schedules and your checkbook.

Not dying is never a waste of time or money.

 

[tudizzle]

its the locals that are involved in more avys



Actually statistically the more avy training you have the greater your chance of being in one.

 

[skidooboy]

statistics show that most people involved in avy's are the locals, not flatlanders.

those same statistics show that the flatlanders accept avy training better, use what is taught, and carry as much or more survival tools, than the residents of avy prone areas.

per avalanche1 training information.

no red given but, dont assume flatlanders are the problem.

as the old saying goes, dont, throw stones if you live in a glass house.

ski

 

[Himark]

Anybody remember the record # of avy's that Thunderstruck set off that year???? heck that one day!!!

I think they are all flatlanders

 

[The Fourth Wolf]

For the record this was prompted by the ongoing futile conversation with arcticcatkid in the Avy forum.

 

[iliketoridefast]

be careful with the flatland talk..

my first time into Island Park Idaho, a LOCAL 24 year old man died on Mt. Jefferson, everyone we talked to that week said stay off Jefferson and other avy prone peaks, that they were holding too much snow. You think he would of known.

Saturday at noon he was lifeflighted out, and didnt make it, unfortunately.

Everyone in our group is from MN, yet we all have probes, beacons, shovels, and almost everyone has an ABS or equivalent backpack.

Im sure there are many "flatlanders" that fit the stereotype, but in many cases ppl with the most familiarity with the terrain are the ones who perish. Every year we have local Minnesotans go through the ice in the spring and drowning... locals aren't geniuses just because they are local

 

[The Fourth Wolf]

Locals spend far more time in avy country so the total fatality statistics are naturally going to skew towards them as a group.

I wonder if someone were to do a comparative study of locals vs tourists in terms of rider days or total sled miles to avalanches encountered (not necessarily fatalities) what those ratios would look like? Granted, a more accurate gauge would be to track total minutes spent on a slope but that would be nearly impossible to record.

Not picking on Tudizzle, but a guy at his level spends probably around 45+ rider days a season, and logs close to a thousand miles in avy terrain, season after season. If he triggers an avalanche of any size once a season his ratio would be around 45:1. More realistically he triggers an avalanche 2 maybe 3 times in his life (I don't know his personal history) while continuing to rack up the avy free rider days season after season.

So let's crunch the numbers for locals. In the U.S. according to the CAIC's numbers there were 116 snowmobile avy fatalities during the last decade (2001-2010) Let's assume that the vast majority of deaths were locals and in western states, say 107 out of 116. That's about 93%.

Now for the rest of this I'm guessing at the numbers but trying to be conservative. If you have some hard data please add it. Let's assume that the average number of local mountain riders per year for this period for all western states was 15,000 (less in the early 2000's, more at the end). Let's also assume that those 15K riders logged an average of 20 rider days per year. Let's also assume that for every fatality there were 10 rider triggered avalanches.

If these numbers are acceptable then the fatality ratio for locals over the last decade works out like this:
15,000 x 20 x 10 = 3 million total rider days
107 deaths x 10 = 1070 total rider triggered avy's

3 million divided by 1,070 yields a ratio of 2,804:1 or 1 rider triggered avy per every 2,800 rider days

Going the other way 1,070 divided by 3 million = a .0003566666667% chance of any one rider tiggering an avy on any given day.

How does that compare to the visitors who get killed or trigger avy's on a succession of week long trips over the same period?

 

[yammi4ever]

FLAM: Flatland Avalanche Magnet

I'm going to get some little red dots for this but that's OK.
You guys from the midwest have got to stop making riding decisions based on your vacation schedules and your checkbook.

Not dying is never a waste of time or money.

While your point may be well meaning, I think you should reach a little deeper to find a better way to express it, instead of calling out a certain group. Your point will only get buried by resentment from the group (i think) you were trying to help protect

 

[hivoltagesledhead]

Interesting #'s.

 

[The Fourth Wolf]

While your point may be well meaning, I think you should reach a little deeper to find a better way to express it, instead of calling out a certain group. Your point will only get buried by resentment from the group (i think) you were trying to help protect

Fair point.

 

[tranquillicer]

Decisions

FLAM: Flatland Avalanche Magnet

I'm going to get some little red dots for this but that's OK.
You guys from the midwest have got to stop making riding decisions based on your vacation schedules and your checkbook.

Not dying is never a waste of time or money.

Theres never a good day to die but.....try making riding decisions based on some other criteria when you have to take 5-10 days of vacation and book accomodations and spend 2-3 days travel time to ride in the rocks. Vacation schedule and disposable income are the two key ingredients to almost any holiday and riding is no different.

 

[wicked9]

It doesn't matter when you ride in the mountains, but rather where you ride in the mountains. If the avy danger is high then guess what. STAY AWAY FROM THOSE AREAS!!! Doesn't matter if your from midwest or the local area. It all depends if your stupid enough to actually try to ride in those areas. Some of us "flatlanders" don't have the liberty to go out west and ride every other weekend. Be thankful we make plans and take a week of from work to go and enjoy what we love. If it wasn't for the "flatlanders" making trips out west most of your lodges and rental fleets wouldn't be in business.

 

[The Fourth Wolf]

Theres never a good day to die but.....try making riding decisions based on some other criteria when you have to take 5-10 days of vacation and book accomodations and spend 2-3 days travel time to ride in the rocks. Vacation schedule and disposable income are the two key ingredients to almost any holiday and riding is no different.

Agreed, and I think it is exactly this dynamic of time and money that drives a lot of bad decisions. When you make reservations you can't predict or possibly know what the conditions will be during that limited window of time. You plunk your money down and hope for the best. Unfortunately for some that financial commitment pressures them to try and get something for their money i.e. putting them on the mountain when they shouldn't be.

 

[tranquillicer]

hmmmm

Agreed, and I think it is exactly this dynamic of time and money that drives a lot of bad decisions. When you make reservations you can't predict or possibly know what the conditions will be during that limited window of time. You plunk your money down and hope for the best. Unfortunately for some that financial commitment pressures some to try and get something for their money i.e. putting them on the mountain when they shouldn't be.

I'm sorry but I completely disagree with that analogy. Conditions change daily re avy's and to think that there is ever a safe time to play in avy terrain is an invitation to disaster no matter what part of the planet you travel from to sled in the Rocks. Everyone who rides out there has to make decisions on a daily basis as to where they will ride and what terrain to stay away from regardless of the distance they travel to ride.

 

[The Fourth Wolf]

I'm sorry but I completely disagree with that analogy. Conditions change daily re avy's and to think that there is ever a safe time to play in avy terrain is an invitation to disaster no matter what part of the planet you travel from to sled in the Rocks. Everyone who rides out there has to make decisions on a daily basis as to where they will ride and what terrain to stay away from regardless of the distance they travel to ride.

Well then we'll have to agree to disagree.
Guys, especially those on a budget, who spend a few grand to travel 1,000 miles to ride the mountains are not likely to just walk away because the avalanche center says things are iffy. We men are particularly bad about putting ourselves in danger because we will rationalize the threat or the odds telling ourselves it won't happen to me, today.

Does that mean every midwesterner who comes west to ride is a reckless idiot? Of course not, but most of the Joe Average types who come west for their once-a-year, or every other year trip are going to feel more pressure to get their money's worth. Unlike the locals they don't have the luxury of time and proximity. They can't casually say "There's always next week". They ride now, while they're there, or they wait until next year.

 

[rwelch5745]

It doesn't matter when you ride in the mountains, but rather where you ride in the mountains. If the avy danger is high then guess what. STAY AWAY FROM THOSE AREAS!!! Doesn't matter if your from midwest or the local area. It all depends if your stupid enough to actually try to ride in those areas. Some of us "flatlanders" don't have the liberty to go out west and ride every other weekend. Be thankful we make plans and take a week of from work to go and enjoy what we love. If it wasn't for the "flatlanders" making trips out west most of your lodges and rental fleets wouldn't be in business.

I gotta agree with the financial statement here. I used to live in West, & "flatlanders" spend a CHITLOAD of money on their trips to that place.( They tip damn good too).

 

[XFIRE800]

We dont cancel trips because of avy danger. We usually decide where were going about a week in advance and if a place has extreme avy danger like togwotee just was, we will probably pick a different place to go (this week it was west yell which also had high avy danger). When the danger is high we stick to low angle slopes and trees. The steeper stuff will still be there the next time so theres no sense in endangering lives when the risk is high. Two days ago the avy danger at lionshead was high and we watched two guys climb the face of lionshead at the same time while there were already triggered natural slides on each side of them. Guess where they were from? Montana..... Saying flatlanders are the most avalanche prone is like saying all black guys like watermelon.... Oh wait

 

[thierracing]

All this flatlander B.S. is getting really old!

 

[allied1]

COMMON SENSE

Common sense is defined by Merriam-Webster as, "sound and prudent judgment based on a simple perception of the situation or facts."[1] Thus, "common sense" (in this view) equates to the knowledge and experience which most people already have, or which the person using the term believes that they do or should have. The Cambridge Dictionary defines it as, "the basic level of practical knowledge and judgment that we all need to help us live in a reasonable and safe way".[2]

You either have it or you don't, no matter where you live! End of story!

 

[Matte Murder]

Wolf I like the statistics. Remember you are probably 100 times more likely to die in an auto accident on the way to the mountains than in an avy. Like an earlier poster said, when the avy danger is high you stay off of anything that is prone to avalanche. Avoiding 30-40 degree slopes, terrain traps, bowls etc still leaves a lot of play area to have fun in. I also like what the midwester said about moving their destination a little to avoid high avy danger. What is 100 miles at the end of a 1000 mile trip?