Weather outlook January 2010

[donbrown]

Snow storms up and down California from now to 5 January 2010.

No major accumulation expected ... all storms under a foot.

Weather pattern MAY change 15 January and cause major storm.

Until then major cold from Canada going to Great Lakes , moisture from Hawaii to Baja to Gulf then states.

Major storms in midwest and eastcoast for 2 weeks.​

Saturday, December 26, 2009 8:54:09 AM


"EL NINO WORKING......HOWEVER, STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE NAO AND AO WORKING AGAINST TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC COUPLED SYSTEM"

IT DOES NOT DO MUCH GOOD WHEN YOU HAVE A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE MID LATITUDES AND HAVE A STRONG BLOCK OVER GREENLAND! IT MAY BE GOOD FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN STATES BUT NOT FOR THE WEST COAST!

THE NORTH ATLANTIC TELECONNECTION PATTERN IS STRONGLY NEGATIVE EVIDENCED BY A STRONG BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WHICH KEEPS HEIGHTS STRONGLY NEGATIVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA .....EVEN WORSE IS THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS SO NEGATIVE THAT THE STANDARD DEVIATION TO CLIMO IS ALMOST OFF THE CHART!

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS PROVIDING CROSS POLAR FLOW RIGHT DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.....IT LOOKS LIKE THE EAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER BIG BLIZZARD!

FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT...THEN ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS....NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE UPPER JET OFF SHORE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE UNDER CUTTING...HOWEVER THE MODELS STOP SHORT OF ALLOWING THE DYNAMIC PART OF THE SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH CALIFORNIA, JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA THEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES.

EL NINO:

STRONG RIDGING OVER/ALONG THE WEST COAST IS NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO POSSIBLY 10 DAYS! MEANWHILE...."ENSO" THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IS GROWING STRONGER BY THE DAY. THE AUSTRALIAN ENSO INDEX IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG AT +1.91C!.....+2C IS CONSIDERED STRONG.

IT IS THE DWEEBS SENSE THAT WHEN THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE GREENLAND AREA CEASES OR PROGRESSES EAST, THAT THE WAVE LENGTH WILL OPEN UP AND ALLOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF JANUARY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE "FORECASTED" TELECONNECTION PATTERN OF THE -NAO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT 15 DAYS KEYED FROM CHRISTMAS DAY.

THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WILL WILL BE SNOW LESS AS FAR AS PRECIP....HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NON-CONDUCTIVE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WEST COAST TRAINING UNTIL THE NAO FLIPS POSITIVE OR AT THE LEAST WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.


WX HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN CA... ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE VINING AREA NEAR MONO LAKE WHERE LOCAL ROADS MAY DEVELOP THICK RIME ICE AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOG WILL BE THICKENING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL BE THERE DAY AND NIGHT BY CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE BRIDGEPORT VALLEY. CROWLEY LAKE IS FROZEN SO FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS BIG A PROBLEM AS LEE VINING, BUT STILL COULD BE FOGGY LATER THIS WEEK

 

[donbrown]

Snow flurries next two week with accumulation to a foot.

No major predictions until present weather pattern breaks around 5-10 January.


Heavy intermittent fog banks will be on the slopes ... be careful

​

Sunday, December 27, 2009 7:46:53 AM


ANY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RESULT OF STORMS WEAKENING AND COMING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THIS MORNING FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...SO WE MAY GET LUCKY AND GET 6 INCHES OR SO OF SNOWFALL IN ADDITION TO ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WE MAY GET BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWED THE BLOCK WEAKENING OVER GREENLAND ABOUT THE 5TH OF JANUARY. WILL THIS CHANGE IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HERALD THE BEGINNING OF SOMETHING NEW? THIS IS A KEY SPOT OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FOR A MAJOR CHANGE IN PATTERN....IT'S EFFECTS GO WELL UPSTREAM.

FROM YESTERDAY:

"EL NINO WORKING......HOWEVER, CURRENTLY, A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE NAO AND AO ARE WORKING AGAINST THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC COUPLED SYSTEM"

IT DOES NOT DO MUCH GOOD WHEN YOU HAVE A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE MID LATITUDES AND HAVE A STRONG BLOCK OVER GREENLAND! IT MAY BE GOOD FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN STATES BUT NOT FOR THE WEST COAST!

THE NORTH ATLANTIC TELECONNECTION PATTERN IS STRONGLY NEGATIVE EVIDENCED BY A STRONG BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WHICH KEEPS HEIGHTS STRONGLY NEGATIVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA .....EVEN WORSE IS THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS SO NEGATIVE THAT THE STANDARD DEVIATION TO CLIMO IS ALMOST OFF THE CHART!

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS PROVIDING CROSS POLAR FLOW RIGHT DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.....IT LOOKS LIKE THE EAST WILL HAVE ANOTHER BIG BLIZZARD!

FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT...THEN ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS....NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE UPPER JET OFF SHORE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE UNDER CUTTING...HOWEVER THE MODELS STOP SHORT OF ALLOWING THE DYNAMIC PART OF THE JET TO COME THROUGH CALIFORNIA, JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT...WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING SSE THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA THEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES.....NORTH OF US INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

EL NINO:

STRONG RIDGING OVER/ALONG THE WEST COAST IS NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO POSSIBLY 10 DAYS! MEANWHILE...."ENSO" THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IS GROWING STRONGER BY THE DAY. THE AUSTRALIAN ENSO INDEX IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG AT +1.91C!.....+2C IS CONSIDERED STRONG.

IT IS THE DWEEBS SENSE THAT WHEN THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE GREENLAND AREA BREAKS DOWN OR PROGRESSES EAST/WEST, THAT THE WAVE LENGTH WILL OPEN UP AND ALLOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE 6TH OR MUCH LATER.....IN THE MEANTIME, THE "FORECASTED" TELECONNECTION PATTERN OF THE -NAO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT 15 DAYS KEYED FROM CHRISTMAS DAY.

THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WILL WILL BE SNOW LESS AS FAR AS PRECIP....HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NON-CONDUCTIVE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WEST COAST TRAINING UNTIL THE NAO FLIPS POSITIVE OR AT THE LEAST WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.


WX HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN CA... ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE VINING AREA NEAR MONO LAKE WHERE LOCAL ROADS MAY DEVELOP THICK RIME ICE AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOG WILL BE THICKENING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL BE THERE DAY AND NIGHT BY CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE BRIDGEPORT VALLEY. CROWLEY LAKE IS FROZEN SO FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS BIG A PROBLEM AS LEE VINING, BUT STILL COULD BE FOGGY LATER THIS WEEK.

 

[donbrown]

28 - 31 December chances of snow at 5000 feet or higher up to a foot

Eureka / Shasta 80%

Susanville 40%

Truckee 50%

Mammoth 30%

Sequoia 30%

LA 20%

Low pressure is off Oregon and suppose to swing down to Baja and then east bringing moisture and cold with it.

Where ever it hits land will bring moisture but predicted to be south of California.

 

[donbrown]

Light snow showers expected next 4 days up and down state at 5000 feet and above. Expected snowfall total under 6-12 inches. More snowfall as going north.​

Monday, December 28, 2009 9:00:12 AM

ANY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RESULT OF STORMS WEAKENING AND COMING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NEW 12Z WRF HAS A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO MAMMOTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LIGHT BAND OF SNOW FALL LOOKS LIKELY

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT BRING US 2 TO 4 INCHES. [​

B]

OTHERWISE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEW YEARS EVE AND DAY....THEN DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.​

[/B]

A VERY NEGATIVE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) CONTINUES WITH STRONG BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND...WITH THE UPSTREAM EFFECTS OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE MEAN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN, AND PRETTY MUCH SNOW-LESS OUT SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS THAT FALL APART AS THEIR FRONTS FALL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE CREST AND A SMALL DISTANCE BEYOND.

 

[donbrown]

Little dustings possible next 2 (argh!!!) weeks but nothing major.1-15 January Night time temps 20"s daytime temps 40's at 8000 feet. Fog likely riding up the hills and in valleys.​

Saturday, January 02, 2010 8:26:48 AM

WEATHER MODELS OVER THE FAR WEST CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES....EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUT SIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CREST THIS MORNING NOT MUCH GOING ON.....NEXT LIGHT SNOWFALL ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ABOUT FRIDAY/NIGHT.

A VERY STAGNANT FAR WEST WEATHER PATTEN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME AS LONG AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND ACROSS THE NEAR-BY ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION'S REMAIN VERY NEGATIVE AND ARE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT WESTERN BLOCKING RIDGE. FORECASTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE'S SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.......HOWEVER....THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WILL BE PRECIPITATION-LESS...

WEATHER WISE EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS WITH LOWS 7900 TO 8200 FEET IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S THIS COMING WEEK.

EL NINO:

STRONG RIDGING OVER/ALONG THE WEST COAST IS NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO POSSIBLY 10 DAYS! MEANWHILE...."ENSO" THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IS GROWING STRONGER BY THE DAY. THE AUSTRALIAN ENSO INDEX IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG AT +1.91C!.....+2C IS CONSIDERED STRONG.

IT IS THE DWEEBS SENSE THAT WHEN THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE GREENLAND AREA BREAKS DOWN OR PROGRESSES EAST/WEST, THAT THE WAVE LENGTH WILL OPEN UP AND ALLOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE 6TH OR MUCH LATER.....IN THE MEANTIME, THE "FORECASTED" TELECONNECTION PATTERN OF THE -NAO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT 15 DAYS KEYED FROM JANUARY 1ST.

THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WILL WILL BE SNOW LESS AS FAR AS PRECIP....HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NON-CONDUCTIVE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WEST COAST TRAINING UNTIL THE NAO FLIPS POSITIVE OR AT THE LEAST WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.


WX HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN CA... ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE VINING AREA NEAR MONO LAKE WHERE LOCAL ROADS MAY BE ICY AND MILD WEATHER OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS.

 

[donbrown]

No change in weather for California AT LEAST 10 days

ARGH !!! ARGH !!! ARGH !!! ARGH !!!​

Weather at Mammoth and Reno Nv will be sinmilar

Saturday, January 02, 2010 4:43:21 PM

WEATHER MODELS OVER THE FAR WEST CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES....EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CREST THIS MORNING NOT MUCH GOING ON.....NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOWFALL ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ABOUT FRIDAY/NIGHT.

A VERY STAGNANT FAR WEST WEATHER PATTEN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME AS LONG AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND ACROSS THE NEAR-BY ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION'S REMAIN VERY NEGATIVE AND ARE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT WESTERN BLOCKING RIDGE. FORECASTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE'S SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.......HOWEVER....THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WILL BE ENTIRELY PRECIPITATION-LESS...

WEATHER WISE, EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS WITH LOWS AT THE 7900 TO 8200 FOOT LEVEL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S THIS COMING WEEK.....OR ABOUT THE SAME TEMPS IN RENO, NV.

EL NINO:

STRONG RIDGING OVER/ALONG THE WEST COAST IS NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO POSSIBLY 10 DAYS! MEANWHILE...."ENSO" THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IS GROWING STRONGER BY THE DAY. THE AUSTRALIAN ENSO INDEX IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG AT +1.91C!.....+2C IS CONSIDERED STRONG.

 

[donbrown]

JANUARY THAW in full effect till at least 15 January Small snowfall possible 7 January​

Monday, January 04, 2010 8:26:29 AM

"A VOLUNTARY NO BURN CALL BY THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH LAKES...."EPA" WOOD BURNING DEVISES EXEMPTED"

DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT......STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A BIG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.....THIS IS COMMON MANY YEARS AND IS USUALLY CALLED THE "JANUARY THAW"

WE CAN GET SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FROM FRONTS DISSIPATING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT HEADED OUR WAY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY GIVE US A LIGHT DUSTING THURSDAY MORNING.

LONGER RANGE:

THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN TOUTING A BREAK IN THE PATTERN JUST AFTER MID MONTH....SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MILDER WET PATTERN.

 

[donbrown]

No major storms in forecast. Hoping better forecast ability as we approach 15th of january.​

Tuesday, January 05, 2010 8:44:12 AM

SOME LIGHT NOW AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL......LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES MEANS OF BOTH THE CURRENT -AO AND -NAO, BOTH THAT HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY NEGATIVE TO DATE ARE TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL THROUGH THE 15TH. THE RECENT BLOCKING THAT HAS BEEN UNDER WAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK.....

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN A PATTERN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NINO EVENT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.

THE DWEEBS EXPECT GOOD VISIBILITY AS WE APPROACH THE 15TH IN THE EXTENDED MODELS..... TOWARD A WETTER PATTERN FOR CALIFORNIA.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS......................

 

[donbrown]

Possible storm 11-12 Mon-Tuesday depends on cyclone by Japan.

Cold Jet stream still north of Oregon causing warm weather for California ... and no snow.

As cyclone moves from sea of Japan may shift cold air south and pull moisture causing snowfall 11-12 January. This is not being reportyed by many so chance is slim.

Wednesday, January 06, 2010 9:39:09 AM


SOME LIGHT NOW AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL......LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES MEANS OF BOTH THE CURRENT -AO AND -NAO, BOTH THAT HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY NEGATIVE TO DATE ARE TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL THROUGH THE 15TH. THE RECENT BLOCKING THAT HAS BEEN UNDER WAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN A PATTERN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NINO EVENT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.

FOR THE FOLKS THAT ARE INTERESTED IN WHAT THE NAO IS "GENERALLY ABOUT", IT IS AN INDEX THAT MEASURES THE DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE PRESSURE BETWEEN THE AZORES OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND ICELAND. IN THE POSITIVE PHASE, PRESSURES ARE GREATER BETWEEN THESE TW0 AREAS AND THE END RESULT IS ENHANCED WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ENHANCED WESTERLIES, FLUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM BUILDING UP OVER CANADA IN THE WINTER.....EASTWARD, THUS NOT ALLOWING IT TO BUILD UP OVER CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THUS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IS ESTABLISHED AND STORMS "OFTEN TIMES" CAN TRAVEL WEST TO EAST....COAST TO COAST.

RECENTLY, THE INDEX HAS BEEN NEGATIVE.....AND SO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN ICELAND AND THE AZORES HAS BEEN MUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT, THE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN WEAKER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT TO ALLOW COLD AIR TO BUILD UP OVER CANADA AND PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THAT COLD AIR PLUNGE IS PART OF A LARGE GYRE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EAST THAT BY ITS WAVE LENGTH, HAS KEPT STRONG RIDGING IN THE MEAN OVER THE FAR WEST.

WITH ALL EXTENDED LONG RANGE MODELS NOW FORECASTING A TREND IN THE CURRENT NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO INDEX TO TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL, THE CURRENT COLD SYSTEM, NOW IN PLACE IN THE EAST SHOULD BREAK DOWN, WITH THE END RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE FAR WEST......

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE 2ND HALF OF JANUARY WILL BE VERY STORMY FOR CALIFORNIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EL NINO ENHANCED,MID LATITUDE UPPER JET.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS......................

 

[GarlandM8]

from snowforecast.com:

Long range forecast / discussion...January 11 to 14

--Several days of high pressure ridging aloft (mostly sun and no snow with milder temperatures) is possible through mid month, only broken up by weak weather disturbances/ light showers. We will watch and hope for something different. After the 15th and toward the 17th/ 18th, we start seeing some strong and wet (snowy) storms from off the Pacific as the jet stream consolidates with a long fetch across the ocean. Classic heavy Sierra Nevada dumps of snow (multi-foot) are then expected to move in.

--WINTER OUTLOOK FROM OCTOBER; For the Tahoe region, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some heavy snow to start falling this month and in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, with some wide variations and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM

 

[donbrown]

Wednesday, January 06, 2010 9:39:09 AM


SOME LIGHT NOW AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL......LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES MEANS OF BOTH THE CURRENT -AO AND -NAO, BOTH THAT HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY NEGATIVE TO DATE ARE TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL THROUGH THE 15TH. THE RECENT BLOCKING THAT HAS BEEN UNDER WAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN A PATTERN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NINO EVENT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.

FOR THE FOLKS THAT ARE INTERESTED IN WHAT THE NAO IS "GENERALLY ABOUT", IT IS AN INDEX THAT MEASURES THE DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE PRESSURE BETWEEN THE AZORES OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND ICELAND. IN THE POSITIVE PHASE, PRESSURES ARE GREATER BETWEEN THESE TW0 AREAS AND THE END RESULT IS ENHANCED WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ENHANCED WESTERLIES, FLUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM BUILDING UP OVER CANADA IN THE WINTER.....EASTWARD, THUS NOT ALLOWING IT TO BUILD UP OVER CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THUS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IS ESTABLISHED AND STORMS "OFTEN TIMES" CAN TRAVEL WEST TO EAST....COAST TO COAST.
RECENTLY, THE INDEX HAS BEEN NEGATIVE.....AND SO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN ICELAND AND THE AZORES HAS BEEN MUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT, THE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN WEAKER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT TO ALLOW COLD AIR TO BUILD UP OVER CANADA AND PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THAT COLD AIR PLUNGE IS PART OF A LARGE GYRE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EAST THAT BY ITS WAVE LENGTH, HAS KEPT STRONG RIDGING IN THE MEAN OVER THE FAR WEST.

WITH ALL EXTENDED LONG RANGE MODELS NOW FORECASTING A TREND IN THE CURRENT NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO INDEX TO TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL, THE CURRENT COLD SYSTEM, NOW IN PLACE IN THE EAST SHOULD BREAK DOWN, WITH THE END RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE FAR WEST......

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE 2ND HALF OF JANUARY WILL BE VERY STORMY FOR CALIFORNIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EL NINO ENHANCED,MID LATITUDE UPPER JET.​

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS......................

 

[TruckeePoo]

Tahoe Update

Little Tahoe update from tahoeweatherdiscussion.com

Look's like the weather is finally on its way...finger crossed!


Posted this morning 1/8...

Weather is so quiet this week that we have to jump forward to next week. Looks like only 4 more days of dry weather in this 12 day stretch……..

Two storms will hit Tahoe in the time period of Tues-Thurs. Models have been very consistent the past few days with showing around 1-2 feet of snow from the two storms. These storms are in response to the ridge finally shifting East and allowing storms into the West Coast.

The real pattern change looks to set-up for the third week of January as the jet stream looks like it may slam CA with a train of storms. All patterns are coming together to support this scenario. Stay tuned……….BA

 

[donbrown]

Thursday, January 07, 2010 8:56:49 AM

THERE IS A GREEN LIGHT ON WOOD BURNING....NO WOOD BURNING RESTRICTIONS......

FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE.....HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 20S...VERY LIGHT WINDS IN TOWN

....NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW.....NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.​

 

[donbrown]

40 -60 % chance of rain / snow from Los Angeles to Susanville Mon - Wed .​

Temps Tuesday - Wed Highs mid 30's lows low 20's at 7000 feet. Other days above freezing. Snowfall to 4000 feet accummulation above 6000 feet on Wednesday morning.

Snow depth not being stated ... just yet. Term "hefty" is used for amount of snow.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 841 PM PST FRI JAN 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING... PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY NIGHT/MORNING FOG. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. && ...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE... .DISCUSSION...WEAK DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD INTO KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES DURING THE PAST HOUR AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES ON THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS FRONT IN THE SJ VLY AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FARTHER SOUTHWARD IN THE SJ VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FRONT OUGHT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVER CENCAL TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE SJ VLY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH SUNSHINE POSSIBLY FILTERING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOISTURE STARVED...IT MIGHT BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YOSEMITE N.P. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FROM LOW CLOUDS IN THE SJ VLY. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN UP IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE SJ VLY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE SOLNS ARE FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT BREAKTHROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A 140 KT JET NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC CENTERED AROUND 32N. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED DURING THIS TIME AS IT NOW LOOKS MORE CERTAIN THAT THIS STORM WILL BRING A HEFTY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA TUES NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OR HIGHER ELEVATION FLURRIES OVER THE MTNS. A RATHER STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO CA NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER...CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE SJ VLY EXPERIENCES A RECURRENCE OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

 

[donbrown]

Saturday, January 09, 2010 8:34:52 AM

CPC INDICATES THAT EL NINO HAS JUST CROSSED THE THRESHOLD TO STRONG IN THE PAST 48HOURS.....NOW +2C......

ODDS ARE GOOD THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE QUITE WET THE REST OF THE WINTER AND INTO THE SPRING......MAMMOTH SHOULD ALSO DO WELL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NOW A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER.​

THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH PICKED UP .09 OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER NIGHT....HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE FELL IN TOWN AS QUITE A BIT OF WATER WAS OBSERVED RUNNING DOWN OLD MAMMOTH ROAD LAST NIGHT. IT WAS ALL SNOW UP ON MAMMOTH MT WITH AN INCH OF NEW UP ON THE HILL. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT FELL APART WAS UNUSUAL IN THAT FOR SOME REASON....MORE PRECIPITATION FELL EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THAN OVER THE CREST.

UPDATE:

EVERYTHING IS FALLING INTO PLACE NOW AS THE LONG LIVED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND

ALLOW A STORM OF AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA TUESDAY WITH THE PEAK OF IT, EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE DWEEBS ARE EXPECTING ONE FOOT PLUS AT THIS TIME BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.​

THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.......

MODERATE RIDGING WILL REBUILD BACK INTO CALIFORNIA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THEN.....ITS
EL NINO SHOWTIME FOLKS THAT FOLLOWING WEEK INTO THE REST OF THE MONTH. AT THE MOMENT, THE GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT CONVINCING WHERE THE JET WILL SET UP FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER,

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FAVORED CLIMATICALLY DURING AN EL NINO WINTER.​

 

[donbrown]

Sunday, January 10, 2010 11:03:36 AM

ANOTHER 2 INCHES UP ON THE HILL OVER NIGHT.... .12 HUNDREDS CLICKED OFF IN THE O'L RAIN TIP BUCKET!

UPPER RIDGING SURGING IN AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR A FAB-DAY IN MAMMOTH...HIGH'S ALREADY REACHING 47 DEGREES BEFORE 10:30 AM......NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY... MAMMOTH ON NBC NATIONAL NEWS THIS AM FOR "SNOWBOARDING CHAMPIONSHIPS"....

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD....LEADING BAND OF THE 700MB RH IS FORECASTED TO REACH THE MAMMOTH SIERRA BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QPF FOR THE UPPER MOUNTAIN ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. SO DWEEB'S UPDATED BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT IS 12 TO 18 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE MAIN LODGE. AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOW PUSHER'S PROBABLY LESS THEN A FOOT IN TOWN AS THE STORM WILL BEGIN FAIRLY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING ABOUT 8000 FEET THEN LOWERING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS HAS UPPER JET PRESIDENTS WEEK TAKING AIM ON SOUTHERN CA.....GOT SANDBAGS?.....FOR THE 19TH AND BEYOND?

 

[donbrown]

70 % chance Mammoth expects 12-18 inches of snow at 8000 feet 12-13 dropping to 6000 feet Wed

50 % chance Los Angeles 3-6 inches same dates levels to 7000 feet

90 % chance Tahoe Rain Snow Mon - Wed 10 PM Most storm Tuesday am and late pm 6in to a foot more than Mammoth

90% chance Susanville levels to 5500 feet. Same type amounts at Tahoe area.

Storm will be warm so above freezing at 7000 feet afternoon and below at night.​

Starting 19 January for 10 plus days El Nino socal rains with maybe snow at very high elevations. Sherman pass?​