Storms maybe but too far time wise to say accurate

[Tahoepow]

The pain is so very real with new summit XM sitting idle in my drive way. I'm a skier turned sledder. I'll do both 4 times a day if given a chance. I love Tahoe, so I'm keeping the mojo going and hoping for a hammering/nuke cycle that will be biblical. 9ers won and I just drank a bottle of nice red wine. It could be worse.

 

[snowrdr]

Snow, whats that??? Snow dance please

 

[donbrown]

Upper Ridge Strengthing over the the Far West……PNA begins to go positive…..So far….no meaningful let up in sight for a pattern change……may get worse before it gets better……


Tuesday December 24, 2013


Posted at 12:36 am by Howard
.



This is the Dweebs year end opinion edition:



Part one:

I guess I can say that that for the most part that all long range forecasts…. I mean all have gone 100% bust this Fall. So with that in mind…..I too have a prediction! I predict that for the most part, this Winter forecasts will have a 50-50 chance of being wrong as well! So what does that mean? A 50/50 chance of being wrong? It means anything a long range forecaster wants it to mean after the fact!! You will find that out at the end of this snow year which ever way it turns out! I mean that if anyone pays anyone to know what this winter is going to be, they deserves what they get!

The fact is, this is a La Nada year. There is no bias in either El Nino or La Nina! So the ability to forecast this winter is pretty slim. In this case at 50%-50% in Central California. That is why the National weather service gave Central California precipitation, equal chances. Equal chance of 100% percent of normal? No…..it means that they do not know what kind of winter this is going to be because there is little or no bias! To complicate matters further, the QBO is positive, meaning that the AO and NAO teleconnections will be mostly positive…..which by the way is what this Fall has been for the most part. When this teleconnection is positive, the flow of air out of the Arctic meridianally is much less frequent or not at all. However…Now as of last the last several days of forecast model runs………… they show the AO to become negative. That means that it is going to get very cold over the eastern half of the US. What does it mean for California? Probably nothing, as the relationship of the AO is not linier in its weather effects in California. So praying for the AO to go negative is like praying to win the lottery. Its possible, but would you really spend your last dollar trying to win it?

Now with all that said, there is still plenty of time for this winter to come back…… When that might be is not known…..The CFS is interesting for the 2nd half for January….but I would not go to the bank on that….No.

If I sound cynical this evening…your probably right…..

I hope to feel better in the morning……………………………..



The Dweeber………………………..//
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.yzbJGA2Y.dpuf

 

[Tahoepow]

Hung over and reading about high pressure really sucks.

 

[donbrown]

Upper Ridge Has Adjusted East enough to Lock us out of Storms for the next one to two weeks…..No Let up in Sight within the 14 day period……


Tuesday December 24, 2013


Posted at 8:49 am by Howard
.

Earlier in the Fall we had an upper ridge that would allow California Sliders to bring wind and cold Weather to our region. It appears now that the upper long wave ridge position has moved far enough east for the PNA index to go positive. This makes for strong temperatures inversions and freezing levels in the 11,000 foot range. I expect the Freezing level to pretty much remain near or above 11,000 through the end of this week 28 DEC. Thus strong temperature inversions will rule with air quality degrading over time….
For the most part we are locked out of precipitation for the next two weeks and possibly through mid January. There is no MJO activity forecasted through the 6th of Jan to change the pattern. The pattern is very stable with ridging in the west…..The east will become colder with time……even though the NAO is still positive. The (AO) Arctic Oscillation is growing negative. The word is that San Francisco is about to have its driest year on record….

Although there is a weak upper low coming though the ridge this weekend bringing us a slight chance of showers….the pattern is a dry one for the state and there is nothing at this time that can change it anytime soon…..

Expect high temperatures in the low 50s in Mammoth with lows at night in the 20s and low 30s. Lower elevations of the county will be in the teens for the most part, locked under temperatures inversions. Mono Lake Fog and Pogonip will increase over time…….



Through all of this…folks are having a great time up on Mammoth Mountain as the mountain had been making snow for the past two months….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.tOfrapdB.dpuf

 

[snowrdr]

I think at this point it is fair for the Snowest moderator to remove this thread. Reason for my motion, this is highly depressing. Don we don't know each other at all and from what i can tell by your posts you appear to be a solid guy and enjoy the sport, but I am thinking since you have taking the reigns in the Snowest CA/NV section with your weather reports, we have had multiple years of horrible snow. I am seriously looking at all voodoo hanging over our snow situation and I cannot help but call this out. It's kind of like the number 13, I despise that number and yes I played baseball for many years am I am a very superstitious individual, oh and Joe Boo really exists.

Not saying your a bad guy at all, but the CA/NV section has become overrun with weather reports and since this transition, we have had terrible Winters. Just looking at all voodoo options and while you probably enjoy what your doing, it's probably fair to STOP

I get it it's free speech and you have the right to post, but holy smokes man lets work on a formula to end this madness of horrible snow, and I am willing to work with you on this, but something has to give

Have a great night and please let's figure out a snow dance that brings some snow The above particular postings done recently threw me over the edge, I mean a weather dude is saying a 50/50 chance? Holy smokes lets find a Paiute traditional snow dance and tell that weather guy to have a drink and start dancing

You could say I don't like read the facts and oh man I couldn't agree more, but lets just Try something new, because I sure don't remember all these weather posts a few years ago when we had 92 feet of snow for the winter at Squaw and Alpine Meadows. I was in fact spending Christmas and New Years riding back then and this is now the third winter in a row we have pathetic snow at this time and ok I am taking my frustrations out, but just looking for a change of atmosphere (literally)

 

[donbrown]

I think at this point it is fair for the Snowest moderator to remove this thread. Reason for my motion, this is highly depressing. Don we don't know each other at all and from what i can tell by your posts you appear to be a solid guy and enjoy the sport, but I am thinking since you have taking the reigns in the Snowest CA/NV section with your weather reports, we have had multiple years of horrible snow. I am seriously looking at all voodoo hanging over our snow situation and I cannot help but call this out. It's kind of like the number 13, I despise that number and yes I played baseball for many years am I am a very superstitious individual, oh and Joe Boo really exists.

Not saying your a bad guy at all, but the CA/NV section has become overrun with weather reports and since this transition, we have had terrible Winters. Just looking at all voodoo options and while you probably enjoy what your doing, it's probably fair to STOP

I get it it's free speech and you have the right to post, but holy smokes man lets work on a formula to end this madness of horrible snow, and I am willing to work with you on this, but something has to give

Have a great night and please let's figure out a snow dance that brings some snow The above particular postings done recently threw me over the edge, I mean a weather dude is saying a 50/50 chance? Holy smokes lets find a Paiute traditional snow dance and tell that weather guy to have a drink and start dancing

You could say I don't like read the facts and oh man I couldn't agree more, but lets just Try something new, because I sure don't remember all these weather posts a few years ago when we had 92 feet of snow for the winter at Squaw and Alpine Meadows. I was in fact spending Christmas and New Years riding back then and this is now the third winter in a row we have pathetic snow at this time and ok I am taking my frustrations out, but just looking for a change of atmosphere (literally)

Well first off Merry Christmas.

I post what I find so to figure out what to do.

I am planning on taking time off for the CHANCE of snow the middle of January.

If not here in the Sierras then its gonna be a long long road trip.

And yes all our sleds were tuned and ready to go since Thanksgiving.

I even took the last week of December to go sledding ended up bike riding flipped and broke some bones a couple weeks ago!

So tell me if these forecasts were declaring 2 plus feet storms at 7000 feet every 10 days would it be a better post?

Well I think we need to know what's going on so we can plan accordingly.

Sorry for this becoming the weather channel ... if we had snow this would be full of posts and pics of riders having powder days.

 

[kylant]

Well Santa didn’t bring the snow on my wishlist... bastard

last year i had 5-6 feet of snow at the house for christmas, then nothing for the rest of the year. 6” now, hopefully this year will be the opposite of last; dry in the beginning, very wet for the end.

 

[byeatts]

Well Santa didn’t bring the snow on my wishlist... bastard

last year i had 5-6 feet of snow at the house for christmas, then nothing for the rest of the year. 6” now, hopefully this year will be the opposite of last; dry in the beginning, very wet for the end.

just completed a X mas hike @ 9K. snow is mostly gone on sunny side. What a pisser!

 

[kidwoo]

I think at this point it is fair for the Snowest moderator to remove this thread. Reason for my motion, this is highly depressing. Don we don't know each other at all and from what i can tell by your posts you appear to be a solid guy and enjoy the sport, but I am thinking since you have taking the reigns in the Snowest CA/NV section with your weather reports, we have had multiple years of horrible snow. I am seriously looking at all voodoo hanging over our snow situation and I cannot help but call this out. It's kind of like the number 13, I despise that number and yes I played baseball for many years am I am a very superstitious individual, oh and Joe Boo really exists.

Not saying your a bad guy at all, but the CA/NV section has become overrun with weather reports and since this transition, we have had terrible Winters. Just looking at all voodoo options and while you probably enjoy what your doing, it's probably fair to STOP

I get it it's free speech and you have the right to post, but holy smokes man lets work on a formula to end this madness of horrible snow, and I am willing to work with you on this, but something has to give

Have a great night and please let's figure out a snow dance that brings some snow The above particular postings done recently threw me over the edge, I mean a weather dude is saying a 50/50 chance? Holy smokes lets find a Paiute traditional snow dance and tell that weather guy to have a drink and start dancing

You could say I don't like read the facts and oh man I couldn't agree more, but lets just Try something new, because I sure don't remember all these weather posts a few years ago when we had 92 feet of snow for the winter at Squaw and Alpine Meadows. I was in fact spending Christmas and New Years riding back then and this is now the third winter in a row we have pathetic snow at this time and ok I am taking my frustrations out, but just looking for a change of atmosphere (literally)

Haha! Yeah it's don's fault! Let's get him!!!

All he does is repost howard sheckter's forcast for mammoth. Blame howard if anything.

I don't blame ya don. You seem like a good guy and I'm pretty confident that if you could control the weather, you'd have done it a little differently than the last 3 seasons.

 

[donbrown]

Haha! Yeah it's don's fault! Let's get him!!!

All he does is repost howard sheckter's forcast for mammoth. Blame howard if anything.

I don't blame ya don. You seem like a good guy and I'm pretty confident that if you could control the weather, you'd have done it a little differently than the last 3 seasons.

If I had control of the weather elevations above 5000 feet would have a 10 foot base by November 1 with riding thru June plus we would be having big iron runs boondocking around the Hollywood sign for Halloween.

... with a foot of new powder dropped Thursday for blue sky riding on weekends

Hey gotta ride the bikes, boats and crawlers the other 1/2 of the year !

 

[snowrdr]

Haha! Yeah it's don's fault! Let's get him!!!

All he does is repost howard sheckter's forcast for mammoth. Blame howard if anything.

I don't blame ya don. You seem like a good guy and I'm pretty confident that if you could control the weather, you'd have done it a little differently than the last 3 seasons.

Not all blaming anyone for mother natures faults, but sometimes you just need to change things up. It comes from my superstitious nature, when something's working you don't change it, but when it's not working you change it up. Since this forum section slowed down for many reasons the past 3 seasons have been more weather reports and I am just making a suggestion

Maybe Don you could create a "sticky thread" called Dons weather reports and if someone wants to look at it they can? You also post on WCS and there is a weather section and you post there and we have the option to go in and look if we want.

Come on everyone start snow dancing. Mountain biking only is fun in the summer and fall

 

[mud99]

Pretty depressing outlook right now.

 

[Tahoepow]

I think we may have to set up a no snow/ winter sucks hotline here in Tahoe, maybe on snowest, maybe this thread. Christ I'm sounding like a weather man. Now that most forcasters are saying next month looks to be dry I'm not sure how to feel. Well completely disappointed comes to mind. This cant be happening again.

 

[snowrdr]

I think we may have to set up a no snow/ winter sucks hotline here in Tahoe, maybe on snowest, maybe this thread. Christ I'm sounding like a weather man. Now that most forcasters are saying next month looks to be dry I'm not sure how to feel. Well completely disappointed comes to mind. This cant be happening again.

Right there with you Bro. Something has to give, I ran up today to take a look at my favorite spot and came away with, are you S$/()!ng me. There is just enough to do a road ride and test and tune my new buggy this weekend, but man oh man something has to change. Superstitions and all, 3 freaking years in a row and tens of thousands of miles logged on my pickup the past few years, I can honestly say I would really like to ride at home. I love Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado Powder and dream about it in July, but 3 years in a row of sketchy riding at home has me at grasping for straws as well.

Someone please figure out what we need to do, not only for our favorite sport, but for oh lets just say WATER!!! Drought stinks in Nevada and this season could have major implications for us.

 

[kylant]

I’m getting ready to sell my sled and just go buy another motorcycle. at least I can ride that in the winter

 

[byeatts]

I’m getting ready to sell my sled and just go buy another motorcycle. at least I can ride that in the winter

Please sell your sled. That will surely start winter!

 

[kylant]

Please sell your sled. That will surely start winter!

lol...
no, i would then find myself at the dealer buying another one

 

[snengineer]

Looks like the latest projections are that the blasted high pressure will finally move north end of next week and park over northern BC and Alaska? Not sure what the storm track will be in this situation yet but the jet stream has to go somewhere.....

 

[donbrown]

Looks like the latest projections are that the blasted high pressure will finally move north end of next week and park over northern BC and Alaska? Not sure what the storm track will be in this situation yet but the jet stream has to go somewhere.....

This time of year the computer models typically show a "wet" condition about 10-20 days out.

We need a model saying it is happening today.


Since no storm has happened for a while the computer model is predicting a major wet pattern 20 plus days away ... and again we need a model saying it is happening today