Storms maybe but too far time wise to say accurate

[donbrown]

Weak little Subtropical Low Ejecting through Sierra This Am bringing a few showers ahead of Main Coastal Slider For late tonight into Thursday night….A few showers are possible Friday Night as well…..Weekend to be partly cloudy with moderating Temps…..Then possible back door cold front Tuesday…….


Wednesday December 18, 2013


Posted at 9:19 am 18 DEC by Howard
.

Wednesday PM: 2:00pm


Extended range shows a back door cold front through Mammoth Christmas Eve. It may or may not happen. If it does we may get a few showers………………and it will turn cooler again after warming up Sunday into Monday 29-30 DEC. -

Seems like todays 12Z run of the ECMWF control ensemble has a pattern change in early January to wet. While this is certainly nice to see, at this distance….it is pretty dubious at this time. Will watch….follow and report as time goes by…..

5:00PM Wednesday: New 18Z GFS has closed upper high in Gulf of AK on January 3rd. Another promising sign but again too far out for anything serious…...- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.YRUgRjal.dpuf

19-21 DEC storm snow levels to 3500-4500 feet estimated 8am PST 19 DEC

High pressure in Oregon splitting storm in two Low pressure in Arizona pulling some of it far south

Southern Illinois /southern Indiana 4 to 6 inches water

Mexico .92 to 3 inches water

WA areas costal slight inland 2.6 inches water

McCall ID 1.56 inches water

1.3 inches water predicted for the RUBIES !

SLC is 1.25 inches water

Flagstaff AZ 1.1 inches

water is 0.9 of an inch in SAN DIEGO / Orange County.

Northern Colorado .85 inches water

3rd highest CA area is Mammoth Basin with 0.7 inch water predicted.

Rest of state to get 0 to 1/2 inch water especially dry SF/NORCAL cause of the high pressure in Oregon

 

[snengineer]

I love your insight and reports, keep em coming. Its nice to have a sledder with this sort of knowledge.

 

[donbrown]

and yes TRUCKEE IS GONNA GET SOME because you guys are special

 

[donbrown]

I love your insight and reports, keep em coming. Its nice to have a sledder with this sort of knowledge.

This chart changes, and is for the forward 5 day cumulative period of water equivalent inches

 

[donbrown]

Cold Upper Low Now Exiting through Northern Mexico…Leaves some light snowfall in the Process…Gusty winds over the Crest….Cooler Temps……


Friday December 20, 2013

Posted at 5:58 am by Howard
.

Mammoth received some light snowfall Thursday. Although it was at the lower end of what was hoped for, about 2 to 3 inches accumulated here near the Village at Mammoth. Mammoth Mountain probably received between 3 and 5 inches. However they will update a but later this morning.

the upper flow over the weekend will be out of the north with the upper jet over Nevada. this is a cool dry pattern. the best that can be said about it is that it will remain cold enough for snow making every night and some in the daytime today Friday as well.

By Sunday the an upper ridge builds in for the west and we become inverted again early next week. It appears that although there may be a few small systems (few inches of snow) that will modulate winds and temperatures from time to time, it will remain dry through the end of the year according to the guidance. There is some suggestion by some of the guidance that a slight shift in the pattern will occur by years end. That a weak storm or two might slip through the mean ridge position or a slight retrogression in the long wave ridge position may occur in the first week of January. However, whatever change occurs, it will most likely not be significant as there are much less ensemble members that are showing it as compared to others that are just plain dry.

For you long rangers that have the need to know what the future may hold, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) has indicated the following. (I will add as a caveat, that this experimental at best and is not to be relied upon for planning purposes).

For Mammoth Lakes (QPF)
1. From the 22nd to the 27th of December (Dry)

2. From the 27th to January 1st (Dry)

3. From Between January 1st and the 3rd. Between ( .1 and .15)

4. From between the 1st and the 5th of Jan (.3)

5. Between the 5th and the 8th (.25)

6. Between the morning of the 6th and the morning of the 11th ( . 2 to .25)

7. Between the afternoon of the 8th and the afternoon of the 13th. (.35)

8. Between Jan, 13th and the 18th (1.2)

9. Afternoon of the 18th and the afternoon of the 23rd (1.3)

10. Afternoon of the 23rd to the afternoon of Jan 28TH (.75)

11. Afternoon of the 28th of Jan thru Feb 2nd. (.7)

Total for January (QPF) between about 4 inches ( This does not include the first few days of Feb.)

Again this is experiential and not to be used for planning purposes

The average snow to water ratio is about 10:1 here in Mammoth Lakes.
10 inches snow for 1 inch water

Based upon the CFS guidance we might think that the chances of significant snowfall might increase about the middle of January.

In that I do not have access to the ECMWF Monthly Precip I can not compare to the CFS. However, my access to the upper height pattern at 500MB FOR 30 days and the 500MB ENSEMBLES suggests that

the CFS January prediction is too Wet… even though the prediction is 4 inches water for the entire month

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.WvZp9JBy.dpuf

Biggest series of storms are 13-23 January ... a couple feet

 

[donbrown]

Looks like the Rubies are getting some 19-20 Dec ... couple feet?

 

[kevinm7]

Looks like the Rubies are getting some 19-20 Dec ... couple feet?

Well, if the Rubies got it, I sure didn't get any at the BASE of the Rubies. I live 10 minutes form Lamoille Canyon and we barely had enough to cover the ground this morning. A couple days ago we maybe had 2 inches in the driveway. Hopefully they got more up top but Snotel didn't seem to think so haha. I am forever hopeful though...

 

[donbrown]

Well, if the Rubies got it, I sure didn't get any at the BASE of the Rubies. I live 10 minutes form Lamoille Canyon and we barely had enough to cover the ground this morning. A couple days ago we maybe had 2 inches in the driveway. Hopefully they got more up top but Snotel didn't seem to think so haha. I am forever hopeful though...

Intellecast.com was stating 1.3 inches of more H2O last night (20 dec 1800 pst) but this morning says 1/4 inch

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USCA0987&animate=true

 

[byeatts]

Intellecast.com was stating 1.3 inches of more H2O last night (20 dec 1800 pst) but this morning says 1/4 inch

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USCA0987&animate=true

Your Mammoth Jan forecast dosnt show any big storms? am I reading this correct?

 

[kevinm7]

According to Snotel (now that it's back up), Lamoille Canyon got about 9 inches in the last 2 days...

 

[donbrown]

Your Mammoth Jan forecast dosnt show any big storms? am I reading this correct?

The largest storm scenario is 13-23 January totaling a little over 2 feet.

Little over 4 feet snow total predicted for the month of January.

The forecast is created by a large forecast service. CLS

Another commonly used is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECMWF and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

 

[donbrown]

According to Snotel (now that it's back up), Lamoille Canyon got about 9 inches in the last 2 days...

1.3 was predicted

 

[byeatts]

The largest storm scenario is 13-23 January totaling a little over 2 feet.

Little over 4 feet snow total predicted for the month of January.

The forecast is created by a large forecast service. CLS

Another commonly used is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECMWF and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

total of 4 feet is nothing,,, That settles down less than 2 feet and dosnt even get us off the trail. We need a couple 4 foot dumps along with all the other Precip. to even get the mt open. Crap

 

[Tahoepow]

Trying to stay positive here in Tahoe. Its been a dismal start to the winter and is shaping up to be really lame sled/ski season. There is no base any where close to where I live, no storms even mentioned in the 2 week forecast and the drought pattern is here to stay for another 2-3 weeks. I've lived in Tahoe for 14 years now and the snowpack is about as bad as I can remember.
Am I wrong? Has there been a recent winter with this kinda start and a happy ending?

 

[byeatts]

Trying to stay positive here in Tahoe. Its been a dismal start to the winter and is shaping up to be really lame sled/ski season. There is no base any where close to where I live, no storms even mentioned in the 2 week forecast and the drought pattern is here to stay for another 2-3 weeks. I've lived in Tahoe for 14 years now and the snowpack is about as bad as I can remember.
Am I wrong? Has there been a recent winter with this kinda start and a happy ending?

were just south of Yosemite at huntington/Shaver lake area. It was 1990 when the ground was bare Dirt until march 1st when we finally got snow....hmmm

 

[GBrown]

Trying to stay positive here in Tahoe. Its been a dismal start to the winter and is shaping up to be really lame sled/ski season. There is no base any where close to where I live, no storms even mentioned in the 2 week forecast and the drought pattern is here to stay for another 2-3 weeks. I've lived in Tahoe for 14 years now and the snowpack is about as bad as I can remember.
Am I wrong? Has there been a recent winter with this kinda start and a happy ending?

2012 was like this in Mt Shasta, no snow until the end of January and it didn't really start coming down until March. We ended up with a peak snowpack depth of 125 inches at 6,700' which isn't terrible for around here. Don't lose all hope!!

 

[kidwoo]

I was riding a mountain bike off mt rose new years eve in the 2011/2012 season.

It snowed eventually but that season still sucked overall.

Can't believe we're getting 3 of these in a row.

 

[Hbmtr]

went and rode MMX in marysville on sunday.69 degrees at 2pm brrr.Seen this before but still not fun.

 

[GBrown]

I was riding a mountain bike off mt rose new years eve in the 2011/2012 season.

It snowed eventually but that season still sucked overall.

Can't believe we're getting 3 of these in a row.

This is the truth!

 

[byeatts]

This is the truth!

I began my #2 sport. They are in the fridge,,,,,,,,,,I cant even trail ride and work on some new 3 inch clutching!!