Storms about every 10 days. 7-10 AND 18-22

[donbrown]

mammoth weather says this FRIDAY 2 Nov

Friday Afternoon 4:00pm

Just a quick note to let folks know that the Nov 11th 12Z ECMWF has come in further west, Stronger, and much wetter then earlier runs. Even though the GFS has the same trof that the EC has, it is not nearly as wet/strong.

The EC paints about 2.5 inches of liquid EQ over the crest beginning Wednesday Night through Sunday morning. Although there is plenty of time for things to change, this is beginning to look like Mammoth’s first major storm for the 2nd half of next week.

Being that we are now back to the 7th/8th for the onset, Confidence will rapidly increase by Monday either way.

That means 2 - 4 feet depending on the density of snow. ELEVATION PREDICTIONS MONDAY 5 NOV. Storm for 20 Nov (plus minus 3 days) may be larger!

 

[makaio]

I hope it hits hard!

 

[Jblaze74]

come on snow gods!!

 

[zilla]

^,^ It will,they are.

 

[zilla]

Ahhhh, some snow did fall up high,must be light and fluffy!

 

[nicholasapp]

got 6" of fluffy snow at 5950' here in truckee. Hopefully they got some more up high to get this snowpack started

 

[Jblaze74]

keep the good news a coming!!

 

[zilla]

Heard there was 8 inches at the Timberline trail off of hwy.431!,
last night at 11pm.

 

[108snowbandit]

Keep us updated please

 

[Jblaze74]

looks like something is brewing on the horizon. Snow levels are still uncertain though, hearing its gonna start around 6500'. Come on snow gods, lets see those temps drop again!!!

 

[donbrown]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=hnx

Mammoth is expecting a surprise dumping 18-19 MAYBE !

NWS RENO 14 NOV A series of systems will affect northeast California, the Sierra, and Western Nevada this weekend. The first low, as can be seen in the image along the California coast, will move into the region late Thursday night into Friday, with moist flow continuing ahead of the next system for the weekend. A weak cold front will shift through the region Sunday, followed by the next upper level low, which can be seen off the coast of British Columbia in the image. Confidence is high that these systems will bring rain and mountain snow to northeast California and the Sierra, but confidence is lower that much precipitation will make it into western Nevada. Snow levels will be variable throughout the weekend and may range from 5500 to 7000 feet north of Interstate 80 and 6500 to 8000 feet south of there. It is still uncertain how much total precipitation will fall and, with the variable snow levels, how much total snow will fall. Those with travel plans over the Sierra this weekend should prepare for winter driving conditions and check the latest forecasts for additional information.

 

[donbrown]

mammoth comment this morning... Too warm to be a dumping .... maybe.

Quick Thursday AM Update

The QPF forecast is for about 1.5 inches of liquid EQ from California Rivers Forecast Center over the crest. Forecast models range from 1.5 to 2.2 with the wetter ECMWF through Monday. So best guess at 10,000 ft or About McCoy Station is for 18 to 24 inches by Monday AM.

The first system is fairly warm and so the Dweebs do not expect much if any accumulation at 8000 feet through Saturday. Cooler air from the next system will begin to arrive late Sunday and into the night. The Snow level will lower during the Sunday PM/Night time frame, however most of the precipitation will have fallen by then. So…..snowfall amounts will be light in town in the 1 to 3 inch range at most. With the “*freezing level” around 9000 feet through Saturday…..snow to water ratios probably lower now in the 8:1 to 9:1 range. That will increase a bit Sunday/night during the colder portion. Best guess at the main lodge is for 6 inches to a foot of wet snow by Monday 12:00 noon. McCoy station between 12 to 24 inches. The upper jet shifts north Monday through Wednesday, however there still may be some light orographic action over the crest… IT will be pretty breezy early next week over the upper elevations with westerly flow aloft..

It looks dry for Thanksgiving Day

 

[Jblaze74]

come on cold temps!!