Stormfest FEB 2011

[donbrown]

Entire state of California has greater than 50%chance of rain on Wednesday and greater than 90% from Kern to Lassen.

From Los Angeles County to Eureka has 90% chance of snow above 5000 feet.

Two big storms this week. 15 Feb to early 17 Feb (Tuesday to Thursday)2-3 inches water from Kern County to Eureka. Approaching from the north.

Snow will be powdery ratio 15:1

Forecasting 2-3 feet snow above 7000 feet from Kern County thru Oregon.Most moisture north of center which is predicted to be Yosemite


Second Storm 18 - 19 February (Friday Sat) Approaching Southern storm snow acc likely from 4000 feet above. Center is Ventura west of Los Angeles. Expect 2-3 inches in Los Angeles and surrounding areas and diminish to 1 inch water Mono County.

Expect 3-5 feet of snow at 7000 feet from Kern County to Eureka by Sat 20 Feb.​

Next storm front Tuesday 22 Feb. ... and don't know much yet except tracking to north part of State.

Mammoth forcast at least 5 feet by Saturday.

Kern forecast at least 3 feet by Saturday !

Will stay cold for at least a week.

NOAA picture updated twice A DAY 12-24 HOUR OUTLOOK.

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[NorCal-sledder]

The Mount Shasta Ski Park is reporting 10" of snow already as of this morning and appears to be snowing there pretty good currently.

Hopefully if the bulk of the storm hits over the next 2 days we'll have 3+ feet for this weekend!

 

[donbrown]

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USCA0987&animate=true

 

[jpxp154]

Looks like were going to get the bulk of it, were right next to yoesmite,SWEET..

 

[donbrown]

KERN county tulare​

First storm on track 2-3 feet by Thursday morning. 7000 feet and above.
SECOND STORM HAS MOVE FROM EPICENTER VENTURA TO EPICENTER KERN !!! Expect more snow FRI_SAT than WED_THUR with levels to valley floor 4000 feet in kern tulare​

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION KERN county tulareNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
219 AM PST WED FEB 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WINTER CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MERCED COUNTY AND INTO THE SIERRA.
THIS SOUTHEAST PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA RECEIVING RAIN OR SNOW BY MID MORNING. CURRENT GRIDDED
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND HANDLED WELL. LATEST DATA SHOWS WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT TODAY AND WILL
CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY IN ZONES 98-99.
LATEST MODEL QPF INDICATES A HEALTHY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SIERRA WHICH EASILY TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO 3 FEET
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS COVERED NICELY BY THE CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THIS FIRST SYSTEM
IS PROJECTED TO BRING AROUND .50" AT FRESNO AND AROUND .25" IN
BAKERSFIELD. AS THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH KERN COUNTY GETTING THE MOST RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE AS STRONG AND MAYBE
EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY`S EVENT THUS ADDITIONAL WINTER STORM
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. I HAVE UPPED THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE TIMING IS GETTING
MORE CERTAIN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IF PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING. ALL IN ALL LOTS OF
WINTER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

 

[donbrown]

Storm 1 is here ... MOST snowfall MONO to ALPINE ... expect 2-3 feet and double the depth at the crest/mountain peaks.

STORM 2 is 18-19 February ... moved from VEntura / LA area to Kern/TULARE (moved north) so expected more snow from KERN to MONO than predicted.

STORM 3 FEB 22-24 ... a cold one but forecast models unsure where it hits ... except to hit California but tracking to dump in the ocean.



STORM 4 Another HUGE storm expected 28FEB to 2 MAR ... BIG MAYBE

 

[skidoochic]

OMG 2 feet at 4500 feet last night and it's still SNOWING!!! I'm having spasms I'm so excited...

 

[tudizzle]

Sleds and all the gear headed out this AM...we converge on Thursday for a week of sledding back near Sonora Pass......HELLS YEAH!!!!

 

[donbrown]

Sleds and all the gear headed out this AM...we converge on Thursday for a week of sledding back near Sonora Pass......HELLS YEAH!!!!

gET THERE QUICK CAUSE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE 395 fRIDAY-sATURDAY !

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth forecast is declaring 3 feet at lodge by end Thuirs 17 Feb AND ANOTHER 3.5 to 4.5 FEET by SUN 20 FEB.

Total 6-7 feet at lodge by Sunday 20 Feb !

 

[nicholasapp]

got 30" in downtown truckee as of 10pm wed

 

[donbrown]

Storm for 17-19 FEB Thursday thru SATURDAY has moved from KERN to just north KINGS CANYON.

100% chance snow from KINGS to TRUCKEE until SATURDAY.

TOMORROW FRIDAY EXPECT 4-12 plus inches SNOW IN VALLEYS FROM RENO TO CARSON

KING CANYON SOUTH TO GET LESS RAIN / SNOW BUT CANT FIND ESTIMATES YET.

Snow levels to fluctuate / change multiple times from 3500-5000 feet as warm cold mix in area.

READ BOLD BELOW

FOR TODAY TURS 7AM PST EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
UNDER MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND HWY 395 CORRIDOR. SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST. ...THE FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR A MINDEN TO
FALLON LINE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NERN CA AND NWRN NV DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND A TIGHTENING 850 MB TEMP
GRADIENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MANY AREAS BECOMING SATURATED TO NEAR 350 MB AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH A STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE IN RENO AND
CARSON CITY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE 395 CORRIDOR FROM
RENO TO MINDEN TO SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT BECOMES ANCHORED TO
A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE BAND OF SNOW
PIVOTING ABOUT THE LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT BETWEEN THE CARSON
VALLEY AND RENO AS STEADY SNOW WOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME CLEARING
OUT. HOWEVER...ALSO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
VALLEY FLOORS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES...SO PRECIP
COULD TRANSITION TO EITHER A WET/SLUSHY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FT. THIS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SIERRA LOOKS TO GET HIT PRETTY GOOD AS WELL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
ABOUT LAKE TAHOE AND TIOGA PASS. MODELS INDICATE QPF OF 2-3 INCHES
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS ROUGHLY EQUATES TO 2-4 FEET OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT AND 1-2
FEET AT LAKE LEVEL. AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER AS MUCH
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE SYSTEM PIVOTS ONCE IT MOVES INLAND...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PLUMAS-LASSEN COUNTIES WEST OF
395 COULD SEE 1-2 FEET OF NEW SNOW.THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE
COAST. SCV

 

[nicholasapp]

storm total of 42" since tuesday night as of 10pm thursday night in downtown truckee

 

[snowrdr]

Sleds and all the gear headed out this AM...we converge on Thursday for a week of sledding back near Sonora Pass......HELLS YEAH!!!!

Have a safe trip! Enjoy riding Sonora

 

[NorCal-sledder]

At Butte Meadows, the groomer could only go about 2 miles in yesterday because of how deep the snow was. Said by that time snow was piling half way up the front window and it came to a halt. 3 feet of fresh snow at the parking lot which is at 5,000 feet.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8VjCHUWfbhU/TV22LRl-ynI/AAAAAAAACrU/Wj_W8WBiBTI/s1600/IMG_1113.JPG

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cYelCOfogvs/TV22DwFVvmI/AAAAAAAACq8/TS3MR5tcN6E/s1600/IMG_1114.JPG

 

[donbrown]

At Butte Meadows, the groomer could only go about 2 miles in yesterday because of how deep the snow was. Said by that time snow was piling half way up the front window and it came to a halt. 3 feet of fresh snow at the parking lot which is at 5,000 feet.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8VjCHUWfbhU/TV22LRl-ynI/AAAAAAAACrU/Wj_W8WBiBTI/s1600/IMG_1113.JPG

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cYelCOfogvs/TV22DwFVvmI/AAAAAAAACq8/TS3MR5tcN6E/s1600/IMG_1114.JPG

wow !

 

[donbrown]

EPICENTER OF STORM TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH AND IS OVER TAHOE.

TAHOE WILL GET HAMMERED NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY NORTH TAHOE?!!!​

MAMMOTH REPORT 2/18 AM 800AM

This has been certainly one of the more difficult storms to forecast. The idea of late yesterday afternoon in keeping the main snow amounts of the first system north of Tioga Pass/Yosemite is pretty much been thrown out with the bucket. The two little jewels (short waves) that the Dweebs wrote about two days ago are heal to heal. The weather front is stationary just north of Tahoe. So what will appear to happen, will be that the first of the two systems hit us broad side later today and tonight. The has been a tremendous amount of IR enhancement on the Satellite that past several hours. HPC QPF indicates that we could easily see double of what we have already received this morning. Since the system will lift from the southwest…the will be a period of warmer air with it….and so snow to water ratios will go down with it being wetter…before the ratios increase again afterwords.

The weather front is expected to become more north/south orientated by early Saturday morning so the second system will hit mainly to the south of us Saturday. It will be showery Saturday as the cold core moves through with improving weather Sunday.

Longer Range:

Although there will be a few cold showery periods between Sunday and the end of the Month….The next good sized storm will come in “about” the 1st of March.

 

[skidoochic]

About 2 1/2 feet or a bit more at 4800 feet in Portola as of this morning... Pure powder, not the normal Sierra Cement. This weekend is going to be beautiful!

 

[NorCal-sledder]

The storm dumped tons of powder here in Nor-Cal! Went riding at Ashpan off HWY 44 earlier. There was anywhere from 2 to 4 feet of powder, depending on where we were at.

The pictures are of the group that was riding, Lognomore stopped while sidehilling, and myself sidehilling one of the hills.

 

[arcticridr]

hey Norcal if you ever want to get the tour let me know I have ridden their for 20 years!!!!!! Know some back country spots you would enjoy!!!!!!!! I will be up their am tomorrow!!!