Prediction about cable TV and Direct TV

[Ex-Member]

Never had cable or satelite....antena broatcast TV, which is FREE. Just can't force myself to PAY for tv and especially 40+ dollars a month. OUCH!!!

Yep... internet is far more entertaining. Parents cut cable when I was about 4, i've never paid for TV since. Sure don't miss it.

Another problem.
Band width and availability.
There is way too many people that can't get high speed internet (me being one of them).

Looked into frac T1? There's a digital remote on the east side of Johnstown.... DSL copper loop should be decent for at least 640k/sec down. High-speed is available anywhere, it's just a matter of $. Set up a P2P microwave relay if you really need to.

I only have local off-air stations at the moment. I do have a decent antenna setup on the roof, with preamp.

I used to have an excellent C-band satellite system. (BIG 10 ft. dish) Well, it's still here, but my Norway pines got too tall and cut off signal to the 10ft diameter dish.
I'm not willing to cut those trees down, and really have nowhere else on the property to locate the dish. It's on the garage roof.

But what was neat with C-Band is I only had to pay for the channels I wanted to subscribe to... and it was cheap. I paid about $6.00 / month for the five channels I wanted.
Speed
Discovery
History
TLC
A&E
maybe one more, don't rmbr.
If I wanted to watch something special on another channel not currently billed, I just called an 800 number, and in minutes that channel was active to watch for as many hours or days I wanted.

Was cool setup. C-Band is still in use, and is digital now. I'd go back on there in a minute if I had a sight-line again.

I would -LOVE- to go C-band, NASA does their broadcasts out there. I just don't think the HOA would be too pleased with one of those dishes in the yard

 

[shortstop20]

I hope it stays the same. TV is simple. Relax, lay down, one button goes up, one goes down.

I think we will still have the easy up/down that we're all used to it's just that there will be much more options and more interactive menus which you can choose to use or not use, that's up to you.

Concerning bandwidth issues, you've gotta think outside the box. Don't think about the technology we have now, think about the technology we will have tomorrow. We've come a long ways in the last 10 years, let alone the last 20 years. There are some very exciting things going on in the electronics technology world nowadays. I have no doubt that the bandwidth issues will be taken care of. Obama plans to spend major money on technology infrastructure which is one place where I actually agree with him. Not to say that all the infrastructure we need will be implemented after his term(s).

With the deployment(although slow) of IPv6 we have the protocol to support VoIP, IPTV and internet connected computers all at the same time, it's just a matter of the infrastructure as stated. MtnDoo made some very good points concerning that.

 

[MtnDoo]

Ahh, yes I forgot the advent of IPv6. This is simply an addressing scheme that radically expands the available pool of IP addresses. The implications are stunning. There are some other interesting feature to it, but it's really focused on allowing a address space such that pretty much anything that can be made IP addressable will be.

Just imagine your washer notices that your shirt likes Tide, and your socks like Downy - and warns you accordingly before your begin the wash. IPv6. As a result your shirt lasts 30x longer w/ compliant washing.

Or, imagine your light switches in your home are no longer under your control. Obama decides when lights are to dim, and when you are to release the power grid back to the borg!

Unfortunately (or fortunately) most currently deployed equipment (routers/L3switches/DSLAMS/CMTS/etc) have either no implementation of, or a very rudimentary implementation of IPv6. This will take time.

 

[beer gut]

I like to watch TV.

 

[Rattlin_Ram]

I think it will come... but it's gonna take time... years....

The backbone of the internet itself wouldn't support all the cable and satellite viewers of today streaming live and recorded content similar to what they watch sat/cable now.

I welcome it in a set top box similar to my DTV box i have now.... however it will not be free....

 

[phatty]

Just imagine your washer notices that your shirt likes Tide, and your socks like Downy - and warns you accordingly before your begin the wash. IPv6. As a result your shirt lasts 30x longer w/ compliant washing.

Or, imagine your light switches in your home are no longer under your control. Obama decides when lights are to dim, and when you are to release the power grid back to the borg!

Unfortunately (or fortunately) most currently deployed equipment (routers/L3switches/DSLAMS/CMTS/etc) have either no implementation of, or a very rudimentary implementation of IPv6. This will take time.

Just so you know this technology already exists and is pretty freaking cool

http://control4.com/

Its simply amazing what you can do these days!

 

[MTdream]

Yep, Microsoft is one of the leaders in this segment. Go figure. 3rd world countrys are building infrastructue to support the world of communications. Fiber, Wireless. Thats right boys and girls, the 3rd world counties are ahead of us in technology infrastructure.

As Ollie said though, bandwidth will be an issue. Larger cities that have fiber to the home that can deliver a 2m stream will be ok, if not and you try to watch it without the bandwidth it will be like watching Max Headroom. OK, am I dating myself? Also the wiring in your home will determine the final delivery to the tv router. Cat 5e or Cat6.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzxHDqUz8Sk&feature=related

not necessarily true...really depends upon your phone or cable company...Here in the Flathead Valley MT, over 70% of the homes have 10 meg or higher broadband via Centurytel (phone company) and 98% of the homes have atleast 1.5 meg capable...and all new developments are getting built with Fiber To The Home, not just to the node...and we have tested OVER 100 meg to the home...it is pretty insane...

watching the Masters Live right now

 

[Rattlin_Ram]

not necessarily true...really depends upon your phone or cable company...Here in the Flathead Valley MT, over 70% of the homes have 10 meg or higher broadband via Centurytel (phone company) and 98% of the homes have atleast 1.5 meg capable...and all new developments are getting built with Fiber To The Home, not just to the node...and we have tested OVER 100 meg to the home...it is pretty insane...

watching the Masters Live right now

My house out in BFE will have fiber in the next couple months... Little local telco is installing fiber to all the houses it serves.

 

[Bubba700]

I agree with you on this one Jeff, anyone actually notice what channels they watch out of all the channels they have. For me its usually just 3 or 4 of them. Baseball, Deadliest catch, 24 are about the only shows I watch so it makes little sense for me to pay for the rest of the stuff. I just by MLB live and can watch EVER baseball game, and the other shows you can watch online. Got a laptop that has an S-video out and just hook it right to my 32 in flat screen. Great picture and I save a ton of cash by not having to pay for cable.

 

[MtnDoo]

MTDream - that's simply awesome! Congrats to Flathead! Lucky..and rare.

As you detailed, there is a significant difference between FTTH and FTTNode/DSLAM. With non-native data access technologies such as DSL and Cable Modems, I think the various standards boards are trying to squeeze blood from a stone (i.e. DOCSIS3.0, VDSLx, APON, etc). Ethernet and IP are cheaper and easier to deploy and maintain with far more upside - IF the infrastructure is there.

Unfortunately most companies won't put the $$$ into fiber for the last mile fiber access portion even though the cost to deploy/retrofit has come down (google 802.3ah). There is a retraining component to this too: Telco's like circuits with two ends - period. Data networking is still seen as "new, unproven and unstable" to many old-school engineers and execs. This argument breaks down at smaller telcos - who have some interaction with their customers - and can adapt better with a smaller footprint.

Until there is a killer app to push the revenue margin up for providers, they don't seem to see the light. As a rule, VoIP does not add revenue - it protects it at best. HSIA makes revenue, and there is hope that Video will once again be a cash cow, but it is a re-tread, repackaged TV set in the end. We really need to extend network support beyond voice/data/video to other areas of our lives - lighting, power, temp, access/security, etc... for IPv6 to make sense.

You're very lucky that someone in Flathead was educated on the economic development value of FTTH. CenturyTel tends to take some risks too - as does Roseville near Sacremento. (CTEL's Vail wireless is a flop) Most large Telco's simply do "test communities" with very little intention to deploy broadly because of the reasons I listed in a previous post.

Over the past few years I've built several FTTH networks for large real estate developers that have 1gig Optical Ethernet connection to each home delivering all services. $2-4mil houses kind of justify the up front costs. However, they're like a "Ships in the sea" - everyone else around them is just begging for 1.5x1.5mpbs DSL (also $1-4mil houses) from the local Telco, drinking the cool aid with the local fixed-wireless provider, or ready to shoot the cable guy cuz Larry can't keep data moving for more than 10 minutes at a time and thinks re-booting the cable modem will fix it.

The other issue you often run into with rural or remote environments is getting sufficient back end(backbone) bandwidth to the site cost-effectively.

Since small communities don't have much density or revenue potential compared to the large cities, they get investment last or not at all from the larger providers. That means that unless your development is near a [real]city your looking at traditional backhaul - NxT1, DS3, OC-x frac-whatever or even still ATM(lol!). While not particularly fast technologies, they are pricey especially in rural or mountain areas. MetroEthernet backhaul in cities is far cheaper and faster.

Example:

1.544mbps T1 = ~$550.00/mo in rural/mountain towns
1mbps on Metro Ethernet = $10.00 to $25.00 in metro areas

Just do the math!


There is not a political solution to this, it really requires good ol' Innovation and a new economic model. YoBama can sprinkle some Benjamins around but he won't really get too far until the rules of the game change.


MD.

 

[decarls]

High speed access is a funny thing. Our small, VERY small, co-op here in north central minesota is deploying FTTH and the customers of one of the national companies on the edge of our coverage area still have dial up. One local company around here is trying to help these specific people by utilizing the 700Mhz bandwith and having pretty good results. Still in the process of testing dial tone over this but it's looking promising.

Due to where I live I have the wireless/700Mhz and have varied results streaming video. Which getting back to the original topic, makes it tough to see anthing different than CATV, IPTV, or some form of Dish in the very near future when many people don't even access to these services. But what do I know, I've only been in this industry for 8 years and things have changed so much in that time it's unreal!

 

[Snowizard]

Ok, this thread is filling up, but here's my still viable C-band system.

A couple pic's. The dish got twisted about 90 deg. last summer in a wind storm, but I think you can see my problem with sight line. It's either the Pines in the way, or the Birches in the way.

The LNB head end is dual band and also receives "Ku"-Band 21 GHz, and I used to be able to tune in network feeds, and programs before they were aired on regular channels.
Fun stuff.

I have not looked into Direct TV or Dish Network , not wanting to pay big bux for 200 channels of nothing to watch. Same with cable.

[/IMG]

[/IMG]

 

[Zachcreek]

Just so you know this technology already exists and is pretty freaking cool

http://control4.com/

Its simply amazing what you can do these days![/QUOTE]


Thats funny right there. I remember my Grandpa saying that back in the
60's when the "Radar Range" came out. (Microwave oven).

 

[Zachcreek]

not necessarily true...really depends upon your phone or cable company...Here in the Flathead Valley MT, over 70% of the homes have 10 meg or higher broadband via Centurytel (phone company) and 98% of the homes have atleast 1.5 meg capable...and all new developments are getting built with Fiber To The Home, not just to the node...and we have tested OVER 100 meg to the home...it is pretty insane...

watching the Masters Live right now

Your right, Smaller rural areas/communities are doing exactly that. But with a population base that can support a realistic ROI.

Centurytel and others are relying on their own infrastructure instead riding on others infrastructure (Ma Bell). Frac T's or full T's from Qwest can be done, but at what cost? As Doo pointed out, $550/Month for a 1.544m T1. There are areas that cannot even get DSL in outlying areas of Breckenridge because of infrastructure buildout.

One of the first implementations that I saw that was successful and maybe a model for the smaller telco companies is Paul Bunyan Telephone in Bemidji Minn. Paulbunyan.net . FTTH and growing to outlying areas.

 

[tundramonkey]

I see the main reason for lack of "up to date services" is govronment control over the big telcos. The reason is that the big telcos have to open their network to clecs at a cost that is below what they would charge their own customers. This all came about when Ma Bell was split into the baby bells.

The reason that the smaller telcos are able to offer these types of service is the gov gives them the money to update the network.

 

[MtnDoo]

tundramonkey -

The Big Bell kids squawked to high heave when the CLEC's arrive (MFS, TCG, TWTC, etc) but the reality was that the CLEC's didn't make a dent and most of the successful ones got consolidated into larger companies or LD carriers who wanted local switch access to their subs. Timer Warner Telecom is the only remaining standout of any size mostly becuause they have access to Time Warner Cable's overbuild fiber network. The same thing happened when non-telco DSL providers (Rhythms, etc) wanted to ride telco POTS lines to subs in the late 90's - telco's cried foul, where are the alternte DSL providers now? Gone - sold to larger carriers/telcos. The telco's have survived based on the fact that they have scale, and address dense, revenue-rich markets for the most part, and barely meet their obligations in the rest of the country for dial tone. Hell, we can't even get Qwest to provide VoiceMail in a County of 15,000 including a major ski area.

As far as the "rural improvement fee" - I have a few friends at rural telco's that would love to hear about how the government is going to fund their fiber buildouts - LOL. That's a rounding error and a political maneuver. Rural America is still very much behind the curve due to the cost/density equasion.

One exception was a brief period of pork-barrel spending called "the 1992 rural improvement act" where they paid the large telcos to put fiber to virtual mud-hut villages, and the telco's never lit the fiber! (i.e., Tincup & Ohio City, CO)

Maybe the magic elixir of "wireless, WiFi & WiMax" will fix all things desired for *free*! ...oh, wait WiMax isn't out of the standards body yet: 7 yrs running. LOL.



MD.