Possible storm 25-27 OCT too far away to predict moisture amounts

[donbrown]

Chilly inside slider headed for Mammoth Sunday AM with a chance of snowshowers in the morning. Colder Sunday…then milder Monday into Midweek……Western Pacific Typhoon WIPHA to set Stage for Change in WX pattern in the Long Range…..


Saturday October 12, 2013


Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
.



The weather of the next few days will be cooler then Friday with a chance of some light snow showers Sunday…. Highs will cool to the mid to upper 40s at 8000 feet with lows in the low 20s Monday AM.

More importantly a couple of typhoons in the Western pacific are worth keeping an eye on. Typhoon WIPHA will be near Tokyo, Japan, Tuesday afternoon and then interacts with the baroclinic boundary just before becoming Extra Tropical by Wednesday. It looks like this TS has the potential to constructively phase with the westerly’s Wednesday which argues for some kind of a Trof by next weekend for the west coast. Nothing showing up in the GFS yet but the EC has something. Behind WIPHA is yet another Typhoon that may take a similar track. It may be that the following week around the 25th or 26 we will have something to write home about…….



The Models themselves become quite amplified with strong Height rises well into the Arctic over Western Canada by the end of next week. What may happen is that a belt of westerly’s may break underneath that High latitude block with a storm into at least Northern California toward Oct 25th or 26th Will adjust as necessary…..



Stay Tuned………………………



Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.fRwNSD4K.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

Govt shutdown restricting more than a week out.

Possible SMALL storm end of month.

Postive Phase PNA Pattern Likely to Persist into Months End with Cold East and Warm Dry West Although Cut Off Low May Bring Some Showers By The End of Next Week….


Thursday October 17, 2013


Posted at 9:47 am by Howard
.

Thursday AM:

Although not a strong +PNA set up…it is positive phased nevertheless. The blocking pattern off shore will move inland early next week leading to warmer temperatures over the upper elevation’s with pretty much calm winds. High temps this weekend will be 55 to 60 at 8000 feet and by Tuesday or Wednesday could be in the low 60s or warmer while nights in the 20s will rise to the mid 30s by Wednesday. The pattern will deliver arctic air to the Northern Plains states with some areas getting snow.

The only hope for any precipitation is from a little cut off low that may it underneath the block by the end of next week. I guess It all depends upon how much energy there is in the Southern Stream. In that were getting to a time in the Fall that may signal some kind of Fall Pattern, the only pattern the Dweebs see is the +PNA for sometime out. If there is an advance eastward in the Asian jet later in the month there is always the possibly of undercutting of the westerly’s. But that is not in the cards yet!

Temperatures at 700mb look above freezing this weekend well through Thursday between +2C and +5C much of next week……So not much help in the snow making department.

Cliff you will have to wait a while longer to get those snow guns spraying the white stuff!

In that the Government shut down is over, the Dweebs should be able to give a better look out beyond Week 1 and even 2 when it all comes back online next week.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY THE 22ND



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.BDX870wo.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

Strong Cold Windy System on the Way…..Batten down the Hot Tub Covers Soon……Light Snowfall Begins after Midnight tonight with Light Snow Monday through the Night…Fair weather returns Wednesday through Sunday with Another System Worth Watching for the following Monday…..


Sunday October 27, 2013


Posted at 10:48 am by Howard
.

Sunday AM Update:

No changes this morning except to tweak the timing a bit and to highlight a windier system.

The Blended QPF is still about a half-inch in the vicinity of Mammoth Mt. So 1 to 3 inches seems good for the Town of Mammoth and between 3 inches and as much as 5 or 6 inches over the crest and in the bowls 27-28 OCT For Mammoth Mt, this is not a system that has a favorable Orographical component to it like other areas both north and south oh Mammoth may have greater amounts . So starts at 5000feet
Snowmaking will benefit greatly from the cold air in the system with 700mb temps down to -5C by 1:00AM Monday then cooling to -8C by 8:00AM Monday. In fact the new 12z Sunday NAM has at least -7C at 700MB (10,000ft) through Tuesday at 8:00am. Clifford, you’ll really be able to spray it on the first half of the new week!! Although temperatures begin to moderate upwards on Wednesday with the 0C line back over us by Wednesday afternoon…..Snowmaking remains favorable throughout most of the day Wednesday, and of course into the night……

Timing of the system appears to be quicker now with the cold front blowing through our area before Sunrise Monday. Most of the precipitation will occur behind the front. However, most of the wind will occur before the front. So it would be very wise to tie down those hot tub covers now!

Daytime highs in Mammoth Monday will be difficult to move above freezing at elevations above 8,000ft. There appears to be a pretty strong band of precip developing behind the front. For the time being it is not expected to stay strong enough this far south to change the QPF for our area.

The outlook looks Dry Wednesday through the end of the week. High temps moving back into the 50s by Friday with flat ridging spreading over our area for All Hallows Eve so keep a candle in Jacko to keep him warm for that night.

The Weekend 2-3 NOV will be fair with seasonal temps in the 50s for the days and 20s at night.
Longer range:

There is another weather system that will affect our area possible as early as the following Monday/Ngt 3 November . The ECMWF has it coming in as a Trough from the west that would bring addition snowfall to our area. However the GFS model has it as an inside slider which is typically dry. Although the Westerly’s are gaining strength now with the jet stronger and pushing further south…….It is too soon to plan on more natural snow. As always stay tuned…..the Dweebs have you covered………………..



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………


Los Angeles locals weather forecaster predicting up to a foot in LOS Angeles mountains above 5000 feet

Looking right now 27 OCT 1800PST scattered snowing in Eureka, NV. ID and Utah ...

 

[Im awesome]

They're calling for similar amounts in South Lake!

 

[donbrown]

Low pressure systems turn counter clock wise.

The center of a low pressure system is between Elko and Tahoe right now causing the RUBIES to get some on the south and east face.

Storm is approaching north of Truckee from the east ! then sliding down the Sierras !!!

 

[donbrown]

Well ... GOT SNOW ???

 

[zilla]

Yep! This one was pretty surprising! Went from bare hills to a foot of snow up high in 24 hrs! Even the foothills of Reno got coverage!
Some cold air in that baby!

 

[kevinm7]

We had about 6" in the front yard yesterday morning. I live at the base of the Rubies. Haven't driven up high yet to see what happened up there though. Hopefully enough to stick and start a good base.