Yea!!!!! it bitter cold in truckee down in the Negative single digits at night only warming up to around 20-30 during the day so the snow is very powdery Not a very good base but at this point we will take anything we can get. I work in Truckee and live in Reno and its suppose to hit 0 that is Zero saturday night in the valley. So there is definitely some cold air associated with this storm. Doing my snow dance so hopefully this will stick around and dump
Major storm "in the cards" for Sierras 1-4 DEC measured in FEET
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
Storm in Mt Shasta
Z
I'll try an go even if I hear only a foot an half falls.
M
I'm with Zilla, I've already got my sled packed up and I'm doing the snow dance! Pretty gusty and lots of flurries around auburn (1750') off i80
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Z
Right Arm ! I'm hooked up also, have a good one!
This storm is so cold making this snow like powder and not protect the sled from anything on the ground.
The ratio is suppose to be 20:1 and nice heavy snow is 12:1
The ratio is suppose to be 20:1 and nice heavy snow is 12:1
We have about 10" of really lite powdery snow in the higher eleavations in the valley that reno is in. the valley is 4500 and where i was tonight was about 5000- 5500 ft. it started to snow in Truckee Ca. 6500 around 6 PM tonight if we have about 10" in the valley they already have over a 12" in truckee. it been coming down pretty steady since about 8. Not a very good base snow because its sooooooo dammmmm cold but we are finally able to measure snow in ft. WoooHOOO!!
20" wow is it staying? What elevation are you at?
my house is about 6500 ft. I am just below the base of of echo summit of hwy 50. echo peak is literally in my back yard.
Recent snow blowing around.
No major storms forecasted next 10 days ... flurries expected Friday the 13th
Computer models forecasting storms are more inaccurate this year than past
Warming trend above freezing day temps @ 7k feet starting 11 December
Sierra Storm dropped 10 to 14 inches of Powder on Mammoth Mtn….Snow Showers will Continue Today…..It will be Milder by Mid Week……..
Saturday December 7, 2013
Posted at 8:44 am by Howard
.
Sunday AM Update:
Cold……Cold…… Yesterday’s high temp briefly peaked at 15 degrees. However most of the day ranged between 10 to 14 degrees. Winds in town were clocked 25 to 30mph with gusts to 52 MPH. Hence wind chill’s ranges from -5 to -15 all day!
Early Sunday morning temps were colder then a snakes vest button with -Teens and to the -30s. Anchorite, NV near Hawthorn, NV had an unofficial low of -35 this morning, Bridgeport -14, Cold springs up north of Stead NV on the California side -22, -19 at Tuolumne Meadows and the list goes on and on. Mammoth Lakes had an unofficial -5 this morning in town while the Mammoth AP had -8. Crestview -13. Expect another cold night tonight.
Inversions:
This upcoming week the upper elevations will recover temperature wise as the freezing level goes up to 10,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Temperature inversions along with a decline in air quality will result. Those residents with out EPA approved wood burning devises should pay attention to local advisories on wood burning Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week.
A change in the pattern to a dry one seems evident in the medium and long range charts, as heights rise over the eastern pacific in response to the break down of the block in the G of Ak (-epo) and the redevelopment of the (-wpo) the block that will set up for a while in the vicinity of the dateline then westward. Again this will cause height rises and along with that, the return of the upper jet to the pacific northwest and BC. Milder days look likely in the weeks to come.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..
Quick recap this AM…..Much of the snow in town has blown and drifted. Some areas have 5 inches while others 2.5 feet in drifts. Winds clocked to 60 miles per hour buffeted the local neighborhood’s of Mammoth Lakes at 5:00am. Winds are still in the 30 to 40 MPH class in town while upper elevations….winds over 100 MPH. The upper jet max is in the vicinity and will keep the winds going all day. They should gradually diminish later today and tonight some. There is one more little feature coming down in the upper flow early Sunday Am but no one is talking about it and will probably be benign. So for now…snow showers will be in the forecast today and possibly tonight as well. A cold blustery pattern for the time being….Highs in the teens and lows -0s.
Looking down the Road…. The current pattern breaks down between Sunday and Wednesday as the -EPO falls apart and give way to transition. The upper ridge in the Gulf of AK deamplifys and that air mass pushes into California for some warmth by mid-week. Beyond that, there are some ensembles members showing some energy coming through next Friday and again the middle of the following week. But nothing define.. The trend however…..is looking drier and milder as we go through the end of the month.Lots of temperature inversions and air quality issues as a stretched out east-west positive upper height anomaly sets up over the Eastern Pacific.
From what the Dweebs see, the pattern over the pacific becomes very chaotic and it is doubtful that any forecaster has any great deal of confidence beyond the 5 to 7 day period with the short waves dampening through what is becoming a long wave ridge position over the eastern pacific. One thing is for sure, the Dweebs do not see any major wet storms in the next 6 to 10 day period. Possibly some small ones…For what its worth…..CFS has the latter half of the month dry. So it is not all that encouraging as well.
SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20131206.z500.gif
This winter is going to be a different animal. Weird, uncommon teleconnections are developing hemispherically that are unstable. There is so much going on globally weather-wise with record cold in parts of the New Hampshire and lots of powerhouse storms over Eurasia and record early snows piling up in the Rockies….
Cant wait until we get our turn!
More later>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.VeJC9cec.dpuf
No major storms forecasted next 10 days ... flurries expected Friday the 13th
Computer models forecasting storms are more inaccurate this year than past
Warming trend above freezing day temps @ 7k feet starting 11 December
Sierra Storm dropped 10 to 14 inches of Powder on Mammoth Mtn….Snow Showers will Continue Today…..It will be Milder by Mid Week……..
Saturday December 7, 2013
Posted at 8:44 am by Howard
.
Sunday AM Update:
Cold……Cold…… Yesterday’s high temp briefly peaked at 15 degrees. However most of the day ranged between 10 to 14 degrees. Winds in town were clocked 25 to 30mph with gusts to 52 MPH. Hence wind chill’s ranges from -5 to -15 all day!
Early Sunday morning temps were colder then a snakes vest button with -Teens and to the -30s. Anchorite, NV near Hawthorn, NV had an unofficial low of -35 this morning, Bridgeport -14, Cold springs up north of Stead NV on the California side -22, -19 at Tuolumne Meadows and the list goes on and on. Mammoth Lakes had an unofficial -5 this morning in town while the Mammoth AP had -8. Crestview -13. Expect another cold night tonight.
Inversions:
This upcoming week the upper elevations will recover temperature wise as the freezing level goes up to 10,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Temperature inversions along with a decline in air quality will result. Those residents with out EPA approved wood burning devises should pay attention to local advisories on wood burning Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week.
A change in the pattern to a dry one seems evident in the medium and long range charts, as heights rise over the eastern pacific in response to the break down of the block in the G of Ak (-epo) and the redevelopment of the (-wpo) the block that will set up for a while in the vicinity of the dateline then westward. Again this will cause height rises and along with that, the return of the upper jet to the pacific northwest and BC. Milder days look likely in the weeks to come.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..
Quick recap this AM…..Much of the snow in town has blown and drifted. Some areas have 5 inches while others 2.5 feet in drifts. Winds clocked to 60 miles per hour buffeted the local neighborhood’s of Mammoth Lakes at 5:00am. Winds are still in the 30 to 40 MPH class in town while upper elevations….winds over 100 MPH. The upper jet max is in the vicinity and will keep the winds going all day. They should gradually diminish later today and tonight some. There is one more little feature coming down in the upper flow early Sunday Am but no one is talking about it and will probably be benign. So for now…snow showers will be in the forecast today and possibly tonight as well. A cold blustery pattern for the time being….Highs in the teens and lows -0s.
Looking down the Road…. The current pattern breaks down between Sunday and Wednesday as the -EPO falls apart and give way to transition. The upper ridge in the Gulf of AK deamplifys and that air mass pushes into California for some warmth by mid-week. Beyond that, there are some ensembles members showing some energy coming through next Friday and again the middle of the following week. But nothing define.. The trend however…..is looking drier and milder as we go through the end of the month.Lots of temperature inversions and air quality issues as a stretched out east-west positive upper height anomaly sets up over the Eastern Pacific.
From what the Dweebs see, the pattern over the pacific becomes very chaotic and it is doubtful that any forecaster has any great deal of confidence beyond the 5 to 7 day period with the short waves dampening through what is becoming a long wave ridge position over the eastern pacific. One thing is for sure, the Dweebs do not see any major wet storms in the next 6 to 10 day period. Possibly some small ones…For what its worth…..CFS has the latter half of the month dry. So it is not all that encouraging as well.
SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20131206.z500.gif
This winter is going to be a different animal. Weird, uncommon teleconnections are developing hemispherically that are unstable. There is so much going on globally weather-wise with record cold in parts of the New Hampshire and lots of powerhouse storms over Eurasia and record early snows piling up in the Rockies….
Cant wait until we get our turn!
More later>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.VeJC9cec.dpuf
It gonna get warm above freezing ... snow maybe 18-20 DEC
Here are the freezing levels at 4:00PM Each Day this week.
Tuesday 10 DEC; 9800ft
Wednesday 11 DEC 9400ft
Thursday 12 DEC; 10,200ft
Friday 13 DEC; 10,200ft
Saturday 14 DEC 12,900ft
Sunday 15 DEC 13,300ft
OUTLOOK:
Storm Track to stay well to the north the next 7 days. However, both global models show the next system to effect our area OF MAMMOTH between the 18th and the 20th. It is another system associated with an amplifying upper high into the Alaska pulling down very frigid air over the far west. As always, the big question will be (“Will it have an over water trajectory AND DUMP IN THE OCEAN PROR TO LAND?) Since the exact track is critical….The jury will be out on this one until next weekend at the earliest.
Here are the freezing levels at 4:00PM Each Day this week.
Tuesday 10 DEC; 9800ft
Wednesday 11 DEC 9400ft
Thursday 12 DEC; 10,200ft
Friday 13 DEC; 10,200ft
Saturday 14 DEC 12,900ft
Sunday 15 DEC 13,300ft
OUTLOOK:
Storm Track to stay well to the north the next 7 days. However, both global models show the next system to effect our area OF MAMMOTH between the 18th and the 20th. It is another system associated with an amplifying upper high into the Alaska pulling down very frigid air over the far west. As always, the big question will be (“Will it have an over water trajectory AND DUMP IN THE OCEAN PROR TO LAND?) Since the exact track is critical….The jury will be out on this one until next weekend at the earliest.
Z
I HOPE it's not the case, but I could see the ski resorts making snow all season to hold on to 4-5 ft. of base.
Very Mild Condition to Continue Through Tuesday then Cold Showery System expected for Late Wednesday 18th Night through Thursday 19th Night……Ridge Returns by Weeks End with warn blue skies……….
Monday December 16, 2013
Posted at 9:37 am by Howard
.
It was 57 degrees in Mammoth Yesterday and little change in temps are expected through Tuesday. Upper 50s is record or near record highs. However, with the sun angle so low in the sky, little effect occurs on what snowpack we have. Mammoth Mt is ready to go for the holidays with great coverage including Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle. Although they did not make snow last night…. The weather will turn very cold by Thursday and so there will be extra more days with exceptional snow making conditions later this week……. Coverage of natural and man-made snow is currently excellent!
As far as the weather goes, it does not look good for a major storm before year’s end. We have a system expected in Wednesday night that will bring light amounts of snow through Thursday night, then dry over the weekend. The longer range does show several inside slider type systems thru 31 December BUT bringing only a few inches here and there. This is a cold pattern and although there may be some light snowfall here and there, it is still considered a dry one. Hopefully January will be a different story.
High temps the next few days will be in the 50s and upper 20s at night. A cooling trend begins Wednesday with light snow beginning about midnight Wednesday then into Thursday.
It looks like Mammoth Mt will be able to keep the snow guns going….more often than not right on through the holiday!
Temperatures by Thursday will be in the low 20s for highs….. and Thursday night in the single digits…..
The ECMWF model has an weak inside slider type system; (upslope) for about the 23rd of December some small snow showers possible then….
There are additional sliders expected before years end.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.6kjxPY1L.dpuf
MORE CRAPPY NEWS
Tuesday 17 DEC AM:
It still looks like an upslope event. We seem to usually do better in upslope events as compared to how much snow is forecasted because of Mammoth Mt orientation to 700MB /NE flow. so 2 to 4 inches might to be conservative….
Opinion and food for thought……
Short, Medium and Long Range guidance are about as ugly as it can get. I think that it takes more then just a few teleconnections and oscillations to make up a winters pattern. Some of the oscillations are probably more important in the longer range then the teleconnections which they can effect. For instance, the QBO….. is in its westerly phase which has been shown to be associated with more of a positive AO (less stormy for the east) then its brother the negative phase. Strato winds west to east are associated with the (+AO) Pressures are lower up in the Arctic and help to contain the cold up in the higher latts. (Less Blocking)
Here is something to think about. We should be nearing the end of the positive phase of the QBO within the next few months. As soon as the index gets below +8 there should begin to be more blocking over Greenland and a possible flip in the sign to the AO as well as the NAO. Now a flip in the sign does not necessarily mean that we will turn wet here in California as the PNA may go strongly positive as well. That is why the effects of the QBO are non linear over California as compared to the east. But I think that it is a significant part of the structure of “this winters make-up” and any kind of change I say is good. The only thing is…this index may not begin to change until February or March……currently the index is a +12.45 for November. Based upon what I see in the arctic, I’d say that is it still quite positive in December as well. But again…we are nearing the end of that phase of the oscillation….the westerly phase should be weakening within the next month or two. After that, the east at least should turn colder. Remember, statistically, the best high latitude blocking with the QBO is associated when the 30mb index transits between positive and negative or negative to positive, rather than just the negative phase. So in this case, going between +12.45 down to at least +8. It will be fun to follow and see.
Considering a link to an article that was posted on another blog….see: http://climate.nasa.gov/news/997
It should be noted that so far, the PNA (Pacific North American Circulation Pattern) has been fairly negative this fall. The blogs article mentions that it is rare but possible that when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative that the infamous AR can occur over California. Since the PNA is and has been at least somewhat negative this Fall so far, might it be of interest if the AO flips to negative because of the weakening QBO by say March, and at the same time the PNA remains negative? Just something to think about………
To follow the QBO index…. go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.A8BjJJTA.dpuf
Monday December 16, 2013
Posted at 9:37 am by Howard
.
It was 57 degrees in Mammoth Yesterday and little change in temps are expected through Tuesday. Upper 50s is record or near record highs. However, with the sun angle so low in the sky, little effect occurs on what snowpack we have. Mammoth Mt is ready to go for the holidays with great coverage including Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle. Although they did not make snow last night…. The weather will turn very cold by Thursday and so there will be extra more days with exceptional snow making conditions later this week……. Coverage of natural and man-made snow is currently excellent!
As far as the weather goes, it does not look good for a major storm before year’s end. We have a system expected in Wednesday night that will bring light amounts of snow through Thursday night, then dry over the weekend. The longer range does show several inside slider type systems thru 31 December BUT bringing only a few inches here and there. This is a cold pattern and although there may be some light snowfall here and there, it is still considered a dry one. Hopefully January will be a different story.
High temps the next few days will be in the 50s and upper 20s at night. A cooling trend begins Wednesday with light snow beginning about midnight Wednesday then into Thursday.
It looks like Mammoth Mt will be able to keep the snow guns going….more often than not right on through the holiday!
Temperatures by Thursday will be in the low 20s for highs….. and Thursday night in the single digits…..
The ECMWF model has an weak inside slider type system; (upslope) for about the 23rd of December some small snow showers possible then….
There are additional sliders expected before years end.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.6kjxPY1L.dpuf
MORE CRAPPY NEWS
Tuesday 17 DEC AM:
It still looks like an upslope event. We seem to usually do better in upslope events as compared to how much snow is forecasted because of Mammoth Mt orientation to 700MB /NE flow. so 2 to 4 inches might to be conservative….
Opinion and food for thought……
Short, Medium and Long Range guidance are about as ugly as it can get. I think that it takes more then just a few teleconnections and oscillations to make up a winters pattern. Some of the oscillations are probably more important in the longer range then the teleconnections which they can effect. For instance, the QBO….. is in its westerly phase which has been shown to be associated with more of a positive AO (less stormy for the east) then its brother the negative phase. Strato winds west to east are associated with the (+AO) Pressures are lower up in the Arctic and help to contain the cold up in the higher latts. (Less Blocking)
Here is something to think about. We should be nearing the end of the positive phase of the QBO within the next few months. As soon as the index gets below +8 there should begin to be more blocking over Greenland and a possible flip in the sign to the AO as well as the NAO. Now a flip in the sign does not necessarily mean that we will turn wet here in California as the PNA may go strongly positive as well. That is why the effects of the QBO are non linear over California as compared to the east. But I think that it is a significant part of the structure of “this winters make-up” and any kind of change I say is good. The only thing is…this index may not begin to change until February or March……currently the index is a +12.45 for November. Based upon what I see in the arctic, I’d say that is it still quite positive in December as well. But again…we are nearing the end of that phase of the oscillation….the westerly phase should be weakening within the next month or two. After that, the east at least should turn colder. Remember, statistically, the best high latitude blocking with the QBO is associated when the 30mb index transits between positive and negative or negative to positive, rather than just the negative phase. So in this case, going between +12.45 down to at least +8. It will be fun to follow and see.
Considering a link to an article that was posted on another blog….see: http://climate.nasa.gov/news/997
It should be noted that so far, the PNA (Pacific North American Circulation Pattern) has been fairly negative this fall. The blogs article mentions that it is rare but possible that when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative that the infamous AR can occur over California. Since the PNA is and has been at least somewhat negative this Fall so far, might it be of interest if the AO flips to negative because of the weakening QBO by say March, and at the same time the PNA remains negative? Just something to think about………
To follow the QBO index…. go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.A8BjJJTA.dpuf
Last edited:
Z
Did I call it or what?! I was even being optimistic on the 4-5,
was going to say 3-4. Guess that's why there is grass drags,water crosss,
and ATV conversions!
You da man !
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