Major storm "in the cards" for Sierras 1-4 DEC measured in FEET

[donbrown]

Major Snow Storm for the Sierra now in the cards for first half of Next Week…….Hang On!!


Monday November 25, 2013


Posted at 11:30 pm by Howard
.

Tuesday AM Update:

Confidence increases this morning for the set up of a major Sierra Snow Pattern that will begin Monday morning and continue much of next week 1-5 DEC. Last night’s 06Z GFS follows the trend of earlier runs of the ECMWF model.

If the weather works out a progged, this will be our Christmas Holiday set up for several feet of snow and a hard grueling week for the snow plowers in town of Mammoth……

The latest 06z GFS is actually showing more over water trajectory now for the pattern, and continues the pattern of heavy snowfall through much of next week for Mammoth……

I hear that reservations for the Christmas holidays in Town were off to a slower start….that should change rapidly as news get out about major snowfall in Mammoth Lakes arriving next week.

More Later……………………>>



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………



Monday Night Update:

The new 00z Tuesday ECMWF is consistent with its previous run in developing a major Snow Storm for the Sierra Monday through Wednesday next week. As the pattern develops this weekend…..The upper high builds over the Alaskan Pan Handel Sunday Night to an astounding +4.1 Sigma ( Deviation from Climo). The Arctic Upper Low deepens as in moves down the coastline and by 06Z Wednesday the SDC is a whopping -4.0 Sigma!

There will be plenty of over water trajectory and upper jet support. If this all works out…a major snow pattern is in the cards from Tahoe south down the sierra beginning as early as Late Sunday night or Monday AM though Wednesday or Thursday AM. The snow will be cold and fluffy with high Snow to Water Ratios.

WSFO’s may put out WSW over the Thanksgiving Holiday for the following week……

Typically forecast models underestimate the QPF with a system like this. Several feet are possible next week…….

Will Fine Tune in the days ahead………………………



The Dweeber………………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.S3NIqsCB.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

 

[Tahoepow]

I'll believe it when I see it. Ie 2 ft on my deck. Tired of these guys hyping up major snow events especially early in the season when everyone is edgy. Or the "AR" slamming down on us that's getting on my nerves too. Its 6-7 days away and by the dweebs and others track records lately its too far out to really know.
I'm hoping like any powder junkie our hand will finally be dealt. But dont jinx it, keep washing your trucks and talking about Mt. biking.

 

[phatty]

I'll believe it when I see it. Ie 2 ft on my deck. Tired of these guys hyping up major snow events especially early in the season when everyone is edgy. Or the "AR" slamming down on us that's getting on my nerves too. Its 6-7 days away and by the dweebs and others track records lately its too far out to really know.
I'm hoping like any powder junkie our hand will finally be dealt. But dont jinx it, keep washing your trucks and talking about Mt. biking.

look at the radar image. that storm is stacked. the only question is the track it will take. its gonna put down snow for sure, where is the question. I hope jetstream tracks it right over cali and into utah. we need it and so do you!

 

[kylant]

I'll believe it when I see it. Ie 2 ft on my deck. Tired of these guys hyping up major snow events especially early in the season when everyone is edgy. Or the "AR" slamming down on us that's getting on my nerves too. Its 6-7 days away and by the dweebs and others track records lately its too far out to really know.
I'm hoping like any powder junkie our hand will finally be dealt. But dont jinx it, keep washing your trucks and talking about Mt. biking.

i totally agree. i am on the south shore and i think we have seen a total of 6” for the whole year. kirkwood was claiming 18” from the last storm, i drove out there and there was maybe 4” on the ground
i will believe the “huge” storms when i actually see them...

 

[donbrown]

I understand having the "forecasters" say a storm with feet of snow ... only to end up with snow flurries.


What is happening is the computer "predicts" the moisture which is there.

Then it predicts the path in relationship to the pressure patterns.

So far the pressure patterns which set up only a few days before they react on the land have caused most of the storms moisture to dump in the ocean

Or the storm(s) slid south into AZ , OK TX and the "energy " combined with the Gulf of Mexico and its "dumping" on the East coast now thru turkey day.

 

[donbrown]

Storm "dump" predicts 1-3 feet on Mammoth lodge 1-4 December with a slim possibility of combined pineapple/arctic explosion later in the week.

Weakening system over the southland may give some snowshowers Thanksgiving day and night….Cold Arctic System makes its way into the Pacific Northwest with Arctic air to Accompany….Snowfall may begin as early as Monday for the Mammoth Area…..


Wednesday November 27, 2013


Posted at 6:25 am by Howard
.

Wednesday AM Update:

The Thanksgiving holiday weather looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers both during the day and night. Daytime highs in the 40s and nights in the teens and twenties. The rest of the weekend look party cloudy with little temperature change. Winds will be light……

Last several computer runs (Tuesday and Wednesday 26-27 NOV) of the ECMWF and GFS still have quite the powerhouse coming into the pacific northwest early next week. However, an adjustment eastward in the pattern suggests that the upper center is likely to remain over land now and not out over the sea. Nevertheless, plenty of upper jet energy will bow out off shore and then into the Sierra next week, so still a good possibility of significant snowfall. There are even some signs of a tropical tap later next week. The Key on all this is this. Recent models run of the GFS has the upper ridge axes at 140west through Alaska. The ECMWF has the axis about 145 west. The 140W longitude line for California is Critical. Often times when a long wave highly amped ridge is east of 140W…Storms take a track over land, where by if the ridge axis is west of 140W the track is offshore. The ECMWF is still west of 140W, however, not by much. So a lot will depend upon the eventual placement of the upper ridge when it sets up next week for how much snowfall we get. The Dweebs have noted that the ECMWF is a better global model when looking out a week then the GFS….

This is an evolving situation in which it will probably not be known, how much snowfall will occur until Sunday for the up coming week. There is no doubt that we will get snowfall. The question is how much and….there is plenty potential for Footage IE 1 to 3 feet over the crest……The Dweebs will not update again until Sunday…….

Have a Great Thanksgiving and Travel Safe!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.zjfjHtbR.dpuf

 

[kylant]

Brian A. over at opensnow.com is pretty darn accurate when forecasting snow for the Lake Tahoe area. opensnow.com is a site directed at skiers, but snowmobilers ride on the same white stuff...

 

[kevinm7]

look at the radar image. that storm is stacked. the only question is the track it will take. its gonna put down snow for sure, where is the question. I hope jetstream tracks it right over cali and into utah. we need it and so do you!

I'm hoping for the same path from Cali to Utah... I'm right in the middle and we have NO snow as of now...

 

[Tahoepow]

I read both these guys daily. Opensnow, dweeber, tahoeweathergeek, plus NOAA. IMO. Opensnow gives great info on his website and posts lots of daily info, but he forecasts snow. And wants to talk about snow in tahoe. AKA Raising our hopes for big pow. I've been let down too many times in the last 2 seasons by him. Open snow has puked more hype than I care to remember. He did nail it 3 winters ago.
NOAA predicts snowfall totals about 48 hrs out and gives advisories and warnings to certain zones. I usually baseline off NOAA forecast because there is no bias. They forecast sun, clouds, snow and rain. I read the discussion at the bottom the page. Good info.
Dweeber sells realestate in mammoth lakes and probably spends more hours looking at weather in hopes it will snow during the winter. He cares but his website is funded through hits on realestate. OPensnow is the same, fueled with hits and advertising dollars.
I'm a diehard skier in Tahoe with a serious sledding addiction. The 2014 XM sitting in my yard doesnt help things. I'm coping but barely... This little rant may have helped

 

[GarlandM8]

Last 2 crummy winters played he** on all the forecasters. Gotta take every forecast with a grain of salt, but like most I too read into the forecasts, get excited and start planning the next ride, only to be let down by Mother Nature.
At least we can see when the "ingrediants" are there and have some hope. Looks like this one will bring in the cold air, hopefully the Low will take the proper path and funnel in the moisture too.

 

[Anthony Oberti]

I find Opensnow and NOAA to be the most accurate and only ones I watch anymore.

 

[Tahoepow]

I like the colors on the longer range. Lets hope this stays true http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

 

[donbrown]

Computer now says one foot powdery snow this week in Mammoth.

After a Quick Shot of Light to Moderate Snowfall Tuesday….Modified Arctic Air Invades the High Country Mid Week and Stays into the following Weekend……


Saturday November 30, 2013


Posted at 9:54 pm by Howard
.

10:00 AM Sunday

Everything on track for a very cold week ahead with upper teens and low 20s in town of Mammoth . Even Tuesday’s weather will be cold with high temps near 32f……and that will occur fairly early in the day.

Strong winds will precede the arctic front with gusts Monday Night 30 to 50 MPH in town of Mammoth .

Snowfall: The new ECMWF QPF is out for Tuesday painting .6 over the crest and there is even a few isolated areas that show .80 Considering how cold the air mass will be and the higher snow to water ratios of at least 15 to 1, it is not unreasonable to expect 5 to 10 inches between 9K and 11,000 feet by Wednesday AM, and 3 to 5 inches in town. In a few of those isolated spots, up to a foot could fall.



________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Well, we could have had a bonanza of snowfall this week if earlier model runs would have stayed consistent. The Current Arctic Low off the coast of Northern BC will instead move into the Pacific NW then become east west orientated across the northern tier states. I have to say that by December, the longer range global models usually do a much better job a week away.

You would expect a longer range outlook in November to bust, but by late November that’s unusual. So until the Dweebs see better performance in the longer range, well stick to the short-term and medium range, highlighting that the extended guidance is an outlook rather than something that is more believable. It may be that during this winter, the longer range guidance is one that the Dweebs will use more cautiously.

As far as snow fall goes…light amounts are expected. Will fine tune in the morning….

What we lack in snowfall we will make up in cold weather…..Modified Arctic will invade Tuesday and by Wednesday we will struggle to get out of the teens at 8000 feet. Night time lows will range from the single digits to below zero in some areas. The cold will be prolonged into next weekend. No doubt there will be broke pipes in town……so do what you have to keep the house warm….



OutLook:



I do see another pattern change during the 2nd week of December….hope its a wet one!

The Dweeber………………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.sf7RGTxa.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

Gonna be cold all week snowed 8-12 inches Mammoth done till Friday.

MAYBE another storm 6-7 DEC Friday

Tuesday Evening Update:

Upper trof axis slowed as it moved through Mono County as forecasted. At the moment the axis is near Lone Pine and will remain over the Owens Valley moving at a snail’s pace through the early morning hours…..reaching Kern County 12Z. Another ripple moves through in the northerly flow late Wednesday for another round of snow showers from upslope Wednesday night into Thursday AM.

The next important Arctic short wave dives south, and is west along the coast of the pacific NW Thursday night…….700mb RH in the NAM increases rapidly Friday with another round of snow by Friday afternoon and into Saturday 6-7 Dec.

This particular wave looks interesting. As the upper ridge that currently extends up into Alaska gets pinched off with the break occurring on tonight’s 00z Wednesday NAM at 45 north. If this break occurs in the ridge in this spot at that time, the timing may allow the next short wave to bow way out off the coast and cyclonically really pick up some moisture from the pacific for 6-7 Dec.

However, the 00Z Wed GFS does not pinch off the Upper high at that time. What we get is another cold outside slider with a period of light snowfall Friday night. So it is too soon to get too excited about another foot yet.
It look like Mammoth Mt picked up about 8 to 12 inches past 15 hours. Actual tally in the morning from Mammoth Mt.

This particular system is through now….just some snow showers remaining. Do not expect much more than another inch over night.

Cold is now the main message with lows in the low single digits here near the village and -10 to -15 in some of the colder valleys.

Will update in the morning………………



PS I do not remember the models having this much difficulty in handling Pacific energy and the upper flow like it has this fall!! The spaghetti in the Ensembles is pretty unruly after about 7 days…..

Pretty amazing!
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.8Ku3ZB1U.dpuf

 

[zilla]

Yea, it has seemed that patterns are more difficult to predict

 

[PowderCrew]

The rubies accumulation matched mammoth...

 

[donbrown]

Yea, it has seemed that patterns are more difficult to predict

I agree the weather patterns are definitely different.

How many hurricanes did we have this year?

 

[bholmlate]

Out of the last storm we got about 4 inches in Truckee and i heard 10 at Donner ski ranch not much snow but bitter cold Hopefully friday we will get more. they are predicting 12" this friday/saturday. Been gorgous up until now. with temps in the high 50's

 

[donbrown]

Storm Friday - Sat 6-7 Dec same as one earlier in the week. 6 inches to a foot of very powdery snow

DRY WARMING PATTERN LIKELY FOR 10 DAYS STARTING 11 DEC

Yuletide Season Approaches…..Still No -NAO or -AO in Sight…..-WPO and -EPO to Rule West Coast Weather into the New Year…..


Thursday December 5, 2013


Posted at 7:40 am by Howard
.

Looking at the latest teleconnections the next 6 to 10 days it is quite possible that the Positive numbers in the QBO and low solar are putting the KABASH on negative phases of the NAO and AO. The Dweebs like that as those teleconnections do not usually favor stormy weather on the central west coast. Easterner weather junkies love the negative of the NAO and AO as those telelconnection’s often create a blocking pattern that buries the cold in the east while the west is often times ridged up with the +PNA.

With the strato winds of the QBO blowing stronger west to east last month as compared to the month before, it is unlikely that long term blocking will come anytime soon to the Greenland area this year. This is good news I think in a neutral ENSO year for the central west coast. Exception….the GEM has a block in the Greenland area but is the Maverick compared to the other models.

It appears to this WX Dweeb….that over the western hemisphere, the negative phases of the WPO and EPO are taking turns in their reign over the Pacific. As of late…..the GFS has shown that amplification has come to the -WPOs Eastern Cousin, the -EPO and an adjustment wave is slowly becoming more and more evident in the pattern, west of the BC coast. “It maybe” as the upper jet out over the pacific gets stronger climatically…..a stronger southern branch under these blocks will become confluent with the strengthening arctic jet later this month…..radically changing Mammoth’s landscape……

Snowfall Estimates Update:

Update on the QPF from the 00z Thursday ECMWF for the Friday/Saturday system (.70) for the crest. CRFC has .46 for Yosemite and .40 for Huntington Lake. The New 12Z Thursday GFS has .50

So it appears that this snowmaker will be similar in amounts to the last system that dropped 7 to 10 inches on Mammoth Mountain.

Looking down the road… is it quite evident that the highly amped upper ridge responsible for the Arctic Air will break down rapidly early next week and collapse in response to the Morph of the -EPO back to the -WPO. This will allow milder pacific air to invade the far west by mid week. Sometimes you can get isentropic lift type snowfall if there is a moisture channel, however this is not in the cards at this time.

The epo/wpo teleconnections are very similar in that they are blocking patterns highlighted by positive height anomalies over the northern latitudes and negative height anomalies to their south over the mid latitudes. The only difference in the teleconnection is location. The WPO is in the central and western pacific and the EPO is situated in around the Gulf of AK. When under the influence of the -WPO, the main upper height anomaly can be too far west for major storminess for the central coast with ridging instead. With the -EPO as are experiencing, the upper height anomaly is too far east. What we may get is a sort of hybrid of in-between…and if the southern branch of the westerlies is strong enough…..It may merge with the polar branch and become confluent. This can lend to a wet pattern for the central west coast with possible “AR” implication’s….

At any rate, there is lots of Winter Left and this candle is just getting lit…..





Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.rN0bRzVp.dpuf