MAJOR STORM ... 4-7 inches RAIN

[donbrown]

Saturday, October 10, 2009 6:07:06 AM



"AFTER A FAIR WEEKEND......MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INDECATED BY CURRENT MODEL RUNS"

ALL GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONSISTANT IN BRINGING REMENENTS FOR OLD TYPHOON MELOR AS WELL AS ITS DYNAMICS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE. CERTAINLY, THIS IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS FORCASTED TO EFFECT THE WEST IN MANY YEARS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER....KEEPING IN MIND THAT IF THIS STORM WERE TO ARRIVE IN JANUARY, IT WOULD BE NO BIG DEAL.
THE DWEEBS FIND THE TRANSITION TO THE WET PATTERN PRETTY INTERESTING IN THE MODELS. THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE AT 135WEST WILL REALLY GET AMPLIFIED AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PLOWS EASTWARD. THE BREAK THROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES OCCURS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT ABOUT 135WEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND UPPER FLOW HEAD ACROSS BAJA CA.
THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE PINCHES TO A CUTOFF HIGH THAT BUBBLES UP OVER ALASKA....A CONTINENTIAL UPPER LOW OUT OF CANADA RETROGRADES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND COUPLES WITH THE REMNENT TYPHOON SYSTEM WHICH SETS UP A 982 SURFACE BOMB OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT....ALL THE WHILE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA GETS HAMMERED WITH NEEDED RAINFALL.


UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN QPF IS FORECASTED FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA CREST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CREST COULD REACH BETWEEN 120MPH AND 140MPH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA.

AS A NOTE:

THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE STATE WHICH WOULD BEGIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN CONTRAST.....THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OFTEN TIMES WE WILL SEE A BLEND OF THE TWO AND IN THIS CASE, GIVING MAMMOTH ITS FAIR SHARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

REMEMBER, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 564DM WITH THICKENSSES DOWN TO ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 560S. THAT'S A SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 9000 TO 8000 FEET WITH TYPICAL NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN THE CASE OF THIS SYSTEM....THIS AIRMASS WILL GET PRETTY SATURATED AT 700MB AND WITH ALL THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT.....FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THEN USUAL. THUS IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ALL RAIN IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH.

THE DWEEBS WILL CHECK OUT THE DETAILS AGAIN SUNDAY AM AND REPORT ON KMMT SUNDAY MORNING AT 8:50AM.

 

[donbrown]

Sunday, October 11, 2009 7:43:10 AM





"AFTER A FAIR WEEKEND......MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INDICATED BY CURRENT MODEL RUNS"

ALL GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING REMNANTS FOR OLD TYPHOON MELOR AS WELL AS ITS DYNAMICS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE, PWA AND HEIGHTS. CERTAINLY, THIS IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS FORECASTED TO EFFECT THE WEST IN MANY YEARS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER....KEEPING IN MIND THAT IF THIS STORM WERE TO ARRIVE IN JANUARY, IT WOULD BE NO BIG DEAL.

THE DWEEBS FIND THE TRANSITION TO THE WET PATTERN PRETTY INTERESTING IN THE MODELS. THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE AT 135WEST WILL REALLY GET AMPLIFIED AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PLOWS EASTWARD. THE BREAK THROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES OCCURS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT ABOUT 135WEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND UPPER FLOW HEAD ACROSS BAJA CA.
THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE PINCHES TO A CUTOFF HIGH THAT BUBBLES UP OVER ALASKA....A CONTINENTAL UPPER LOW OUT OF CANADA RETROGRADES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND COUPLES WITH THE REMNANT TYPHOON SYSTEM WHICH SETS UP A 976 SURFACE BOMB OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT....ALL THE WHILE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA GETS HAMMERED WITH NEEDED RAINFALL.


UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN QPF IS FORECASTED FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA CREST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CREST COULD REACH BETWEEN 120MPH AND 140MPH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA.

AS A NOTE:

THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE STATE WHICH WOULD BEGIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN CONTRAST.....THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OFTEN TIMES WE WILL SEE A BLEND OF THE TWO AND IN THIS CASE, GIVING MAMMOTH ITS FAIR SHARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

REMEMBER, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 564DM WITH THICKNESSES DOWN TO ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 560S. THAT'S A SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 9000 TO 8000 FEET WITH TYPICAL NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN THE CASE OF THIS SYSTEM....THIS AIR-MASS WILL GET PRETTY SATURATED AT 700MB AND WITH ALL THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT.....FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THEN USUAL. THUS IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ALL RAIN IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH.

THE DWEEBS WILL CHECK OUT THE DETAILS AGAIN SUNDAY AM AND REPORT ON KMMT SUNDAY MORNING AT 8:50AM.


DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.....................

 

[jlowe]

yep...we've bee watching this one at the station for a week now. its lining up to be one of the bigger october storms we've had in central cali in 7 years. should be interesting.

snow levels keep going up and down on the computer models. one model showed 8 feet of snow above 8K feet by thursday. that seems a little crazy...but we can still hope...

jeff

 

[donbrown]

yep...we've bee watching this one at the station for a week now. its lining up to be one of the bigger october storms we've had in central cali in 7 years. should be interesting.

snow levels keep going up and down on the computer models. one model showed 8 feet of snow above 8K feet by thursday. that seems a little crazy...but we can still hope...

jeff

I guess the snow level depends how cool the moisture gets.

I hope the low pressure systems drag it real low and bring the cold jet stream down.

The sure is lots and lots of moisture over the Pacific. More than usual for October .... This looks like the January storm we typically see for California.

At least the models are saying snow at 7500 to 9500 and above Monday thru Thursday.

For Los Angeles it will be one big mud bath after all the fires.

 

[jlowe]

yep...lookin' pretty juicy out there tonight. the main moisture feature is the leftovers of a typhoon that ripped up the western pac the last two weeks.

my guess is snow levels will be 9K and up around central cali. the jet stream forecast is calling for winds at pass level to be easily over 100mph... could be a lot of trees down from this bad boy if it comes in like they're saying.

 

[jlowe]

this was just posted out of the NWS office in Hanford, CA:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
904 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
AND NO CHANGES ARE IN STORE TO CURRENT FORECAST. TOMORROW WILL BE
CLOUDY AND FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NEXT AND
MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE BIG
MEADOW FIRE BURN AREA IN YOSEMITE AND ALSO FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS
THE TIOGA PASS IN YOSEMITE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
HEAVY ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR EXTENDED FORECAST.

 

[travisw1973]

yep...we've bee watching this one at the station for a week now. its lining up to be one of the bigger october storms we've had in central cali in 7 years. should be interesting.

snow levels keep going up and down on the computer models. one model showed 8 feet of snow above 8K feet by thursday. that seems a little crazy...but we can still hope...

jeff

8 feet of snow is the model I am rooting for, that would be awesome!

 

[snowrdr]

STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND BACKCOUNTRY OF THE SIERRA... MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE OFF THE PACIFIC AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 9000 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL REDUCE IMPACTS FROM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT EARLY WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COULD POSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRAVEL INCONVENIENCE ON AREA PASSES MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK WILL PRECLUDE FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS. HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN SETTINGS AND NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. SLICK ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH TO SIERRA RIDGES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO AFFECT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POSE A THREAT TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.




As much as I would love to see the 8 feet of snow as stated above, tell you what we could sure use 4-7 inches of rain!!!!! Which I am guessing on our side of the hill will be a 1/2 an inch of rain.

 

[donbrown]

STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND BACKCOUNTRY OF THE SIERRA... MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE OFF THE PACIFIC AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 9000 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL REDUCE IMPACTS FROM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT EARLY WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COULD POSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRAVEL INCONVENIENCE ON AREA PASSES MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK WILL PRECLUDE FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS. HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN SETTINGS AND NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. SLICK ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH TO SIERRA RIDGES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO AFFECT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POSE A THREAT TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.




As much as I would love to see the 8 feet of snow as stated above, tell you what we could sure use 4-7 inches of rain!!!!! Which I am guessing on our side of the hill will be a 1/2 an inch of rain.

Typically an inch of rain will yield 8 to 16 inches of snow so 8 feet of snow is around 8 inches of rain.

With that amount of rainfall/snowfall over a 2 day period will not allow the ground to absorb it so snow might be a better alternative. Snow will melt this early in the season and release the moisture over several more days.

 

[donbrown]

the perfect mid-october storm is still headed our way.....record amounts of precipitation
for mid october along with the potential for high winds, over and west of the sierra crest is expected tuesday into early wednesday....this event has the characteristics of the columbus day storm of 1962.....however this time.....this system brunt will be focused over central california, not northern california like its cousin. Both of these system have in common an extra tropical system that was once a typhoon over the western pacific. The 1962 event left lots of timber down over northern california in it wake.

this time the focus of the upper jet comes in over central ca. The nose of the 140 knot jet is onshore by tuesday afternoon and into the sierra by 00z wed. Winds at 700mb are forecasted to be 70 knots by 00z wed. Record amounts of rainfall for a 24 hour period is expected over and along the western slopes of the sierra. Up to 8 inches of qpf is possible at mammoth pass....and some 3 to 5 inches near the village at mammoth.​

this is all possible, as the surface low spins-up and deepens to 972mb tuesday night at the storms peak tuesday evening off the pacific north west shore.

snowfall will be problematic as the snow level will fluctuate between 7500 early in the event this evening, then up to 10,000 by late tuesday then falling to 8000 feet by wednesday morning. most of the storm will be rain for the town of mammoth.​

 

[brahm]

oooh geez my knee is acting up a storm is a brewing.. spent all weekend getting the sleds ready.. according to howard (mammoth weather) snow levels are going to drop down to 7k then back up 9k.. If it's as big as they are talking (fingers crossed) hopefully we'll be riding this week. BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!

 

[donbrown]

oooh geez my knee is acting up a storm is a brewing.. spent all weekend getting the sleds ready.. according to howard (mammoth weather) snow levels are going to drop down to 7k then back up 9k.. If it's as big as they are talking (fingers crossed) hopefully we'll be riding this week. BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!

The way the DWEEB is talking trail riding Tuesday morning then rain .... Then more trail riding Wednesday.

 

[brahm]

The way the DWEEB is talking trail riding Tuesday morning then rain .... Then more trail riding Wednesday.

I'm just hoping it gets down to the cinder shed otherwise we might have some launching problems, your not supposed to launch from Main Lodge..I work, and had permission and still got a ticket last season from the forest service for doing it

 

[donbrown]

This is what I read at this posting.

Storm suppose to hit Sierras today ... doppler radar shows it is a big sucker in the Central Valley.

Just read this morning 3 plus feet at 9000 feet in Mammoth.

Truckee at least 2 feet

Arnold Ca Bear Valley 3 plus feet.

Storm is dead on for Mammoth Lakes.

High wind warning till early Wednesday Warning in California

Wind in low level 25MPH with gusts to 60MPH

Winds over crest and passess 70 MPH with gusts to 140 MPH

 

[donbrown]

Tuesday, October 13, 2009 9:06:39 AM

AT 9:00AM AT MAMMOTHWEATHER.COM THE CURRENT TEMP IS 35F. DEW POINT IS 27F AND A BAROMETRIC STATION PRESSURE AT 29.82...THUS WE ARE CURRENTLY 32F DEGREES WET. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN VERY SOON HERE AT THE 8200 FOOT LEVEL.



A HIGH WIND WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT 5:00PM TONIGHT THROUGH 5:AM WED AM.

"TIME TO SECURE ALL MOVABLES AROUND YOUR RESIDENCES HERE IN MAMMOTH AS THE UPPER JET NEARS".......STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NO REAL CHANGES WITH SYSTEM OTHER THEN THE NEW WRF 12Z RUN HAS THE UPPER JET AT 300MB COMING IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK OFF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OFF PEAK WIND FORECASTS FOR THE CREST...AND SHIFT THE QPF BULLS-EYE JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH.​

IT BEGAN SNOWING IN MAMMOTH AT ABOUT 7:00AM. A DUSTING CURRENTLY IS ON THE GROUND NEAR THE VILLAGE. THE DEW POINT IS CONTINUING TO RISE.

HOWEVER, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3.5 FEET AND 4.5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON MAMMOTH MT.​

THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN MAMMOTH RETURNING TO THE 60S NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THEN COOLER
SUNDAY-MONDAY.​

 

[brahm]

It's DUMPING right now (and all this morning), hopefully it holds up threw the nite. We may be looking at some great SPRING like conditions over the weekend as it's supposed to warm back up to 50-60 degrees, 4-6 feet of pow then some blue skies.

 

[PowderCrew]

KEEP US POSTED! Watching the weather channel to see how the storm hangs on you guys... GET SOME PICS!

 

[donbrown]

Tioga Pass looks nice

 

[donbrown]

Looks like there is a few feet at Mammoth

 

[brahm]

just drove home from main lodge.. it is SOCKED in and full blizzard conditions. 0 visibility, and in the 2' + range, snow levels all the way down into town, at least a foot if not more around my house, and the stuff is coming down THICKER then I've ever seen, going to be a GREAT base.