Maybe up to a foot ontop Mammoth Mountain this week.
High Low pressure transition prevents ACCURATE forecast greater than 5 days.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009 8:49:48 AM
TUESDAY AM:
TRANSITIONING INTO CHAOS
A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ENTERING THE ROCKIES AS PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO UNDERCUT STRONGER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH....COOLER WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN ONLY POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND"
TO REITERATE:
THE UPPER HIGH IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS THEN FORECASTED TO FALL APART OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH THE PROCESS...RETROGRESSION OCCURS AS IT REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK. ALL MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN CHAOS.
MEANWHILE....PACIFIC ENERGY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN WEAKENS.....THAT IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEMS ARE STILL MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT (+PNA). COOLER TEMPS, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A MORE SOUTH-SOUTH WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY.
OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS THE RICH PLUM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THAT WILL GET DRAWN INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CA TOMORROW WEDNESDAY BY A MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF. THE TROF THAT IS ADVECTING THAT MOISTURE IS PRETTY WEEK AND RELATIVELY WARM AS WELL. HENCE, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH.....ABOVE 8000 FEET...AND POSSIBILITY AS HIGH AS 9000 AT FEET AT TIMES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL TREND DOWN A BIT LATER THURSDAY. THE DWEEBS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AM. HOWEVER, THE MAIN LODGE MAY PICK UP 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW AND THE TOP OF MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN MAY GET 5 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW TO H2O RATIOS WILL BE HIGH. LATEST GRIDS SHOW ABOUT 7 TO 8 TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST BY LATER THURSDAY AM. BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN TOWN WILL BE VERY EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE OCCURS AS THE DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE A BIT LOW AND AFTER THE MAIN PLUM HAS LEFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHEN WILL THE FIRST REAL STORM HIT THE SIERRA? THIS IS NOT KNOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS OF TUESDAY....THE PATTERN HAS JUST BEGUN TO GO INTO TRANSITION.....SO HOW COULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO FORECAST THE TIMING OR STRENGTH OF SUCH AN EVENT IN THE FUTURE?......MORE TIME IS NEEDED!
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH A SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.....THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL CONSISTENCY, IN EITHER TIME FRAME OR MODEL SOLUTION. THIS IS WHY THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT UNTIL THE PATTERN SETS UP.....LONGER RANGE FORECASTS AREN'T WORTH THE CYBERSPACE THEY ARE DIGITIZED ON.
8:45M AM THOUGHTS:
THE WSFO RENO WEATHER GRIDS PUT .79 OF AN INCH OF H2O OVER MAMMOTH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 10,000 FEET WEDNESDAY AND DOWN TO 9000 FEET THURSDAY. AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE PRETTY JUICED WEDNESDAY THE DWEEBS EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 8500 WEDNESDAY...THEN WHAT-EVER'S LEFT, FALLING DOWN TO THE 7500 BY THURSDAY. DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN TOWN. EXCEPT FOR THE COMMERCIAL PLOW DRIVERS....YOUR HALL PASS OUT OF TOWN IS STILL GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OFF SHORE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING PRETTY WHIMPY AS THE GFS HAS IT REMAINING OFF SHORE DUE TO THE RESULTS OF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OUTSIDE OF 140WEST WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORT WAVE THAT IS AN INSIDE SLIDER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT OF ENERGY COMING THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THERE IS A STRONG ARCTIC SYSTEM COMING OFF ASIA THURSDAY MORNING SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR JAPAN. THE ENERGY TYPICALLY TAKES 4 DAYS TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS WHICH ARE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE AT THE MOMENT, MIGHT EVENTUALLY DIG THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST CREATING SOME OVER WATER TRAJECTORY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT RATHER THEN THE COLD DRY SHOWERY SCENARIO THAT IS BEING PAINTED BY THE NEW 12 GFS THIS AM. TIME WILL TELL.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS................
High Low pressure transition prevents ACCURATE forecast greater than 5 days.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009 8:49:48 AM
TUESDAY AM:
TRANSITIONING INTO CHAOS
A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ENTERING THE ROCKIES AS PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO UNDERCUT STRONGER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH....COOLER WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN ONLY POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND"
TO REITERATE:
THE UPPER HIGH IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS THEN FORECASTED TO FALL APART OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH THE PROCESS...RETROGRESSION OCCURS AS IT REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK. ALL MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN CHAOS.
MEANWHILE....PACIFIC ENERGY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN WEAKENS.....THAT IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEMS ARE STILL MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT (+PNA). COOLER TEMPS, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A MORE SOUTH-SOUTH WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY.
OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS THE RICH PLUM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THAT WILL GET DRAWN INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CA TOMORROW WEDNESDAY BY A MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF. THE TROF THAT IS ADVECTING THAT MOISTURE IS PRETTY WEEK AND RELATIVELY WARM AS WELL. HENCE, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH.....ABOVE 8000 FEET...AND POSSIBILITY AS HIGH AS 9000 AT FEET AT TIMES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL TREND DOWN A BIT LATER THURSDAY. THE DWEEBS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AM. HOWEVER, THE MAIN LODGE MAY PICK UP 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW AND THE TOP OF MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN MAY GET 5 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW TO H2O RATIOS WILL BE HIGH. LATEST GRIDS SHOW ABOUT 7 TO 8 TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST BY LATER THURSDAY AM. BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN TOWN WILL BE VERY EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE OCCURS AS THE DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE A BIT LOW AND AFTER THE MAIN PLUM HAS LEFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHEN WILL THE FIRST REAL STORM HIT THE SIERRA? THIS IS NOT KNOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS OF TUESDAY....THE PATTERN HAS JUST BEGUN TO GO INTO TRANSITION.....SO HOW COULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO FORECAST THE TIMING OR STRENGTH OF SUCH AN EVENT IN THE FUTURE?......MORE TIME IS NEEDED!
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH A SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.....THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL CONSISTENCY, IN EITHER TIME FRAME OR MODEL SOLUTION. THIS IS WHY THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT UNTIL THE PATTERN SETS UP.....LONGER RANGE FORECASTS AREN'T WORTH THE CYBERSPACE THEY ARE DIGITIZED ON.
8:45M AM THOUGHTS:
THE WSFO RENO WEATHER GRIDS PUT .79 OF AN INCH OF H2O OVER MAMMOTH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 10,000 FEET WEDNESDAY AND DOWN TO 9000 FEET THURSDAY. AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE PRETTY JUICED WEDNESDAY THE DWEEBS EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 8500 WEDNESDAY...THEN WHAT-EVER'S LEFT, FALLING DOWN TO THE 7500 BY THURSDAY. DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN TOWN. EXCEPT FOR THE COMMERCIAL PLOW DRIVERS....YOUR HALL PASS OUT OF TOWN IS STILL GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OFF SHORE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING PRETTY WHIMPY AS THE GFS HAS IT REMAINING OFF SHORE DUE TO THE RESULTS OF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OUTSIDE OF 140WEST WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORT WAVE THAT IS AN INSIDE SLIDER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT OF ENERGY COMING THROUGH CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THERE IS A STRONG ARCTIC SYSTEM COMING OFF ASIA THURSDAY MORNING SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR JAPAN. THE ENERGY TYPICALLY TAKES 4 DAYS TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS WHICH ARE CERTAINLY QUESTIONABLE AT THE MOMENT, MIGHT EVENTUALLY DIG THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST CREATING SOME OVER WATER TRAJECTORY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT RATHER THEN THE COLD DRY SHOWERY SCENARIO THAT IS BEING PAINTED BY THE NEW 12 GFS THIS AM. TIME WILL TELL.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS................
