Lets take personal opinions about how to ride out of the equation for a second and look at the data.
Avalanche Centers in the US and Canada are reporting an observed trend of mid-afternoon slides both natural and human triggered. That is a fact.
End-of-day fatigue may play a factor in the decision making process of a potential avy victim but it has nothing whatsoever to do with the stability of a given slope.
Slope stability is entirely topographical and meteorological in nature: Slope angle + snow (load, condition, moisture content) + temperature = avy hazard.
To say any (avy prone) slope could avy at any time is factually wrong. Any slope can slide given the right combination of factors. The sun's affect on snow IS one of those factors.
From what I read, the data is saying that all else being equal, on clear days, slope stability tends to decrease because solar radiation has a cumulative weakening effect on the snowpack of southerly and westerly slopes.
The point in all this is even though it is cold out, solar radiation affects snowpack composition. That's not my opinion. That's a scientific fact.
Anectdotally most of us know from experience that by 2 or 3 pm on a calm, blue-bird, spring day it can get hot up high. (Check out THC 5,6, or 7 and you'll see riders in t-shirts or shirtless.) The reflected radiation in the bowls we love so much, especially south facing ones, can raise the upslope temps 10+ degrees higher than the bowl/valley floor. Heat rises and avys start up high. Connection??
Just because the median temp never gets above the freezing mark doesn't mean snowpack isn't affected by temp fluctuations.
Bottom line: If the avy gurus' data shows a spike in avy activity during mid-afternoon then that's good enough for me and I will factor that into my decision making process.
