Building Industry Insanity

[Mjunkie]

So for years I use to work selling building materials (lumber, doors, windows etc.). I am a machinist now but still have friends who are still doing it. Today one of them sent me a text telling me about the insanity going on right now.

When I get a chance I'll update this with everything he told me but as a good example of what's going on. 7/16 OSB 4 x 8 sheets (used on roofs, exterior walls among other things) will soon be $33 a sheet. The price always fluctuated and sometimes quite a bit. I remember selling it 20yrs ago for $4.95 a sheet (yes I know 20yrs is awhile ago), but in a year or two after that, it would be up to $12 a sheet. Sometimes it changed close to that much in the same year. It is all about supply and demand. Well, because of COVID, there have been supply issues and demand has gone nuts because everyone was stuck at home so we all got the great idea of getting that remodel done we've always talked about. What does that mean? Now is a TERRIBLE time to remodel or build. I know contractors here in Utah who have told me they are turning away work because they're booked solid for most of the next year (yes NEXT year).

 

[Hawkster]

Those in charge have an agenda and we're going to pay for it dearly . I will be interested to see your postings , please , you think it's expensive there
I'm still waiting on a couple of Amphibious builds in your neck of the woods , covid BS has become a wonderful tool . Almost got the main roof on this , the beetle kill was/is so devastating that logs are being shipped up for new builds .

 

[Jaynelson]

I know the exact reason for the building material craziness - cause I decided this was the year to build a new place LOL

But seriously, this is across so many industries right now. Due to the widespread lack of travel/vacations/sports/etc during covid, household savings is WAY up, and people are spending it on home renos/builds, vehicles, recreational vehicles, boats, mountains bikes, etc, etc. Anything to do with construction or outdoor activities is just insanely busy. I sales manage a powersports/power equipment dealership, and we have been VERY busy since covid started. Adding in the supply chain issues, and the non-existent used market (everything has been bought up)....people are literally buying the stuff faster than they can build it on many items.

Covid has been so weird ....certain businesses have had such a rough go, but honestly everyone I know (provided they don't own/work a restaurant or hotel) is absolutely killing it at their business/job. I don't think you will see the picture change much for awhile either - people want to preach doom and gloom, but for the most people things seem to be rocking here.

 

[Mjunkie]

This is what my friend sent me via text. He works for colonial building supply in centerville Utah (where I worked for a number of years):

FYI and a heads up trusses are out 11-12 weeks, they lost another crew again.
Trex is taking a 6% increase
Shelving and MDF it’s getting hard to get and also going to have a increase soon 5% Simpson hangers go up 8-10% February 1st.
Glu lambs took a 12% yesterday.
We just bought osb yesterday and 7/16 will be coming in at over $33 and 3/4 over $42.
Lumber also on a steady increase following osb closely.
Bci is going up 10% in March and putting us on allocation.
Doors will be tacking another 12% February 1st. From all manufacturers.

1.9 million housing starts reported this week

My thoughts... HOLY SH!T


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[stum1967]

I am sure glad my house and projects are done. Income has stayed the same thru covid but it would have been hard to factor in those price increases. My outdoor kitchen-patio project was finished in September but it still ran about 3000 over what I had planned in the spring, and that was a fairly small project.

 

[Mjunkie]

We (my wife's project ) did some remodeling of the house this last summer into the fall, and we paid more than I expected for materials but it wasn't terrible. My job was to build some book cases my wife wanted with a bunch of MDF 4 x 8 3/4 sheets. We bought the bulk of it up front and I don't remember what we paid but I remember toward the end needing another sheet or two and paying about twice what I originally paid. Sounds like things have gotten crazier now though.

Jaynelson,
After reading your post, I remembered my brother telling me he went up to Alpine on a sled trip a few weeks ago and he said they passed a dealer that they thought was closed because there was no inventory outside. When they saw the open sign, they went in just to see what was going on and the guys inside said just what you were saying, they were open but just had sold all of their inventory and couldn't get more fast enough to meet demand. I don't remember the name of the dealer, but yeah I imagine there are lots of companies that are making money hand over fist right now! I'm in the aerospace industry so the exact opposite.

 

[Mjunkie]

Those in charge have an agenda and we're going to pay for it dearly . I will be interested to see your postings , please , you think it's expensive there
I'm still waiting on a couple of Amphibious builds in your neck of the woods , covid BS has become a wonderful tool . Almost got the main roof on this , the beetle kill was/is so devastating that logs are being shipped up for new builds .

Looks good! Good luck to you!!

 

[wwracer]

Man I hear ya!! Sold my home in Island Park for big bucks, gonna build in Alaska this summer... gonna cost big bucks. Going the Pole barn route so I'll minimize lumber cost some what as opposed to stick build, but it won't alleviate the supply inventory time frames. everything is 15-16 weeks out. Looks like another one of my "ain't gonna" finish her up before the frost projects... UGH

 

[Hawkster]

I hope it's in the valley , Cankerage is really turning into a dump , 8% left last year and with them good paying jobs and to put the nail in the coffin the restrictions on small businesses is devastating . Local media doesn't even talk about it and all the vacancies but the valley is booming , that's where people go shopping ,meals, recreation besides housing boom .

 

[High Voltage]

Between land prices, and building materials I’m glad we moved 2 years ago! We never had gotten to live where we built today.pick from our deck Christmas morning.

 

[wwracer]

I hope it's in the valley , Cankerage is really turning into a dump , 8% left last year and with them good paying jobs and to put the nail in the coffin the restrictions on small businesses is devastating . Local media doesn't even talk about it and all the vacancies but the valley is booming , that's where people go shopping ,meals, recreation besides housing boom .

Building in Talkeetna, (hippieville) Anchortown was great back in the early 70's... PFD's F'd up Alaska, brought in lots of freeloaders, worse idea...EVER!!

 

[Hawkster]

I'll be just up the road , the PFD takes a back seat now days to government hand outs . The mayors love it , for a while regular shipments from Darfur where coming in shortly after they had that spurt of genocide . The women are most noticeable , missing fingers and toes or mangled .

 

[Pinchecharlie]

Just curious what different parts of the west cost? Were in Bozeman and the median home price is 660,000. I've been thinking of cashing in and trying to find an un cool place to live in the mountains lol. Read that big skys average was 2.2 million wtf! Times have changed that's for sure! When I worked construction (15 years ago and since I was 15) here the cost was around 140 a foot? Think that's what I remember lol. What's it now lol?!

 

[simple]

2 years ago I got quoted $350 a sq ft go build in Crested Butte. Easily $400 now with building supplies up as high as they are.

There is a constant stream of Colorado folks heading to Bozeman. Good luck!

 

[Hawkster]

Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship

A ship the length of four football pitches is wedged across one of the world's busiest trade routes.

www.bbc.com

 

[Mort2112]

I work in building materials for a manufacturer and I can tell you it's not getting any better any time soon. Part of the issue for lumber is the closure to trucking at the Canadian Border in the early going of last year. While rail hauls most building material, you still need trucks and they weren't moving for a time. Here in Boise housing prices are getting California stupid, and many out-of-staters are buying future retirement places in cities like McCall and St. George, UT before they escalate further, fueling even higher prices. Even in Fairview, UT where my Dad lives, there is a tremendous amount of building starting because the Cali transplants don't mind hourlong commutes to Provo and Lehi, or that's the only affordable places they can find. Add to that the AirBnB craze in places like McCall and housing is going to continue to skyrocket.

Compounding everything, remote work is allowing a ton of mobility right now. I'm not a purist, as I'm a transplant myself (the "We're Full" bumper stickers are stupid, we have so much room it's ridiculous) but either interest rates need to rise a little or the supply routes need to be fully reopened across the northern border.

And unfortunately the largest component is still the lack of labor. After 2008 everyone left the industry and didn't come back. Labor crews are in such short supply, and they are mostly not really bidding work right now as they all have as much as they can handle. Lack of labor=lack of supply=higher prices.

And there's no single solution. I work in the technology end of the business, and construction is just barely starting to modernize like agriculture did. It's going to be a long haul.

 

[Hawkster]

 

[Hawkster]

1-in x 10-ft Copper L Pipe
$84.37
And this is the cheap crap

 

[leisureexpress]

 

[Hawkster]