2016-17 W. Central Montana Avy conditions thread---"NO RATING"

Scott · Nov 22, 2016

Here we go.

Too brown outside for a shake-down ride, but here is the first report of the season.

Check the LAST post in this thread for the most recent avy updates.
I leave ALL forecasts and warning history here so you can be educated about past conditions.

Scott · Nov 22, 2016

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Avalanche Special Update – Preseason Update – November 21, 2016

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Hi everyone, this is Travis Craft at the West Central Montana Avalanche Center with early season avalanche safety information issued Monday, November 21, 2015.
Snotel sites are slowly accumulating snow. With winter slowly taking over the higher elevations it is time to start thinking about avalanches and preparing for backcountry recreation.
In past years there have been a number of early season close calls and fatalities in Montana involving hunters and climbers. Hunters tend to travel solo without avalanche rescue equipment and avalanches are most likely the last thing they are thinking of as they follow elk tracks across steep, open terrain.
If you see any of these obvious clues (listed below) signaling dangerous snow conditions, avoid being on or under open slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Recent avalanche activity
Cracking or collapsing snowpack
Heavy snowfall
High winds
Rapid increase in temperature

If you spend any amount of time in the mountains in the winter, chances are good that you will encounter avalanche terrain. Having basic awareness of terrain, weather and snow factors goes a long way toward making good decisions in avalanche terrain. To assist you, we are offering several basic and advanced avalanche awareness classes this winter. We also have instructors available to provide your organization a range of programs from introductory lectures to classes with a field component. Check out our course offerings here.
Any information you can provide and send the WCMAC is appreciated and helps us inform the rest of the community about avalanche safety conditions. Please send a quick email to info@missoulaavalanche.org or complete the easy to use form here public observation.
We will update the advisory as the weather dictates and plan to begin issuing regular avalanche advisories with a danger rating in mid-December.
Have a safe and Happy Turkey Day.
The post Avalanche Special Update – Preseason Update – November 21, 2016appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 4, 2016

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Avalanche Special Update – Avalanche Special Update – December 2, 2016

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Good morning, this is Travis Craft with an early season snowpack update.
In the last 48 hours the advisory area has received significant snowfall. In the northern part of the advisory area the North Fork Jocko snotel received 20 new inches. The southern part of the area received less snow and the Twin Lakes snotel is reporting 10 new inches. The storm system had moderate wind with strong gusts.
The first avalanche problem are wind slabs. These will be located on leeward slopes and will have a hollow or drum like sound to them. There is a lot of snow available for transport, so some of these slabs could be very large.
The second avalanche problem is storm slabs. There is significant loading on the old snow surface or at lower elevations on the ground. Give the new snow some time to adjust to the new load. Signs of instability are shooting cracks, collapse noises in the snow pack and recent avalanche activity.
Today we will have a break in the weather until this afternoon when a new front is expected to move in and bring precipitation and wind. On Sunday a large system is predicted to bring large amounts of precipitation through the advisory area.
Remember it is still early season out there. Put new batteries in your beacons and practice with your riding partners. Please visit our education page to sign up for one of our classes or to attend one of our events. Also, if you are out and about please send us a public observation.

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Scott · Dec 5, 2016

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Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 5, 2016

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Good Morning, this is Logan King with an early season conditions update.
A significant storm has rolled into West Central Montana bringing cool temps, wind and snow. The storm system started working its way into the region early Sunday and has since dropped 4-12 inches of snow at mountain locations across the advisory area. The new snow; as enticing as it may be warrants some close attention.
Primarily the new snow will require some time to settle. Thats right, the ground counts as a bed surface and the snow will require time to bond to the ground in areas where little or no snow had fallen. At higher elevations and some cold northern aspects where thin snowpacks have existed prior to the new snows arrival, look for a weak basal facet layer that likely developed during cold nights in the shallow snowpack. The storm also came in with some wind, Point 6 shows winds peaking at 40+mph midday Sunday and are sustained at 20-30mph this morning. With new snow available for transport and noteworthy winds, keep an eye out for areas where windslabs and pockets of wind affected snow may be lurking.
This is the time of year to get your head on right, take your time and don’t rush into potentially dangerous situations. Take a class or re-read your favorite avalanche book. We have been hearing a few reports regarding conditions and will be starting regular avalanche advisories next week, so as always if you do venture out please share what you find through our public observation page.
The post Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 5, 2016

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Scott · Dec 12, 2016

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Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 9, 2016

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Good morning, this is Travis Craft with an early season snowpack and avalanche update.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures are 8 F to 24 F this morning. Winds are 15 mph with gusts of 22 mph out of the WSW in the northern part of the advisory area and 6 mph with gusts of 9 mph out of the WSW in the south. Snotels are reporting 2 to 3 new inches of snow in the last 24 hours.
Over the last over the last 4 days we have had very cold temperatures which have created some layers of concern in our shallow snowpack. Yesterday, Josh and I toured in the Rattlesnake where we observed shooting cracks from our skis and had localized collapsing. We observed surface hoar growth from the cold, clear nights on many aspects. We were able to get propagation in our pit tests. In one of our tests, the column propagated and failed during isolation on the basal facets on the ground. We have a layer of facets in the middle of our snowpack that we were able to get failures on in compression tests. (video)
With the new snow and predicted snow for this weekend these layers will become more reactive with the additional weight on the snowpack. If you are out recreating this weekend pay close attention to any signs of instability: Shooting cracks, recent avalanche activity, collapse noises, and whumfing. The structure of our shallow snowpack with a layer of basal facets makes me very wary of committing to any steep terrain with the addition of any new weight. I would dig a pit to assess the new snow and how reactive these layers are ( buried surface hoar, facets and basal facets). There is new snow and winds capable of transport which means that there are small wind slabs to be aware of.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Over the weekend localized banding is predicted to happen in the mountains throughout the weekend bringing snow to the region. With the addition of new loading the weak layers in our snowpack will be tested increasing the avalanche danger.
We have many upcoming events check our education page for listings. Also if you are out recreating in the backcountry, please send us your observations these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 9, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 13, 2016

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Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 12, 2016

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Good morning, this is Travis Craft with an early season snowpack and avalanche update.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures are 12 F to 24 F this morning. In the northern part of the advisory area winds are 17 mph out of the west with gusts of 27 mph. The southern area winds are coming out of the WSW at 6 mph with gusts of 10 mph. Snotels are reporting 5 to 12 new inches of snow in the last 24 hours.
This new loading on top of the existing poor structure of our snowpack will make it very reactive. In the last 48 hours we have had reports of natural avalanches near St. Mary’s peak and a slide triggered on Little St Joe in the Bitterroot. Also, a public observation from the Rattlesnake showing instabilities. The snowpack needs some time to adjust to the new snow. With more loading from snow and wind on the poor structure of the snowpack we will see the avalanche danger rise. I would be very cautious traveling in avalanche terrain and make very conservative decisions.
We will issue our first advisory with an adjatiave rating on Thursday, December 15 2016.
We have many upcoming events check our education page for listings. Also if you are out recreating in the backcountry, please send us your observations these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Special Update – Early Season Conditions – December 12, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.

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Scott · Dec 16, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 15, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the west central Montana backcountry on steep (>30 degrees) wind loaded slopes. On all other slopes the danger is MODERATE.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 15, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 12 F to 23 F in the region. In the Bitterroot winds are 7 mph out of the SSE and Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading at 12 mph with gusts of 21 mph out of the SW. The forecast area received 1 to 6 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The SWE totals are .3 to .8.
Tim and I toured near Lolo pass yesterday. The snowpack structure is still poor and the facets near the ground are still failing. We were able to get propagation in our ECT’s. With the new snow and winds overnight, steep leeward slopes have CONSIDERABLEdanger. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
The first avalanche problem is a persistent slab that is releasing near the ground on basal facets. It gained strength, but with the new load from snow and wind loading it will become more reactive. You need to dig in the snow and assess this layer.
The second avalanche problem are wind slabs created on leeward slopes. There was new snow to be transported with the wind last night. These slabs will be identified by the scouring of slopes and hollow drum-like sounds.
Remember, the avalanche advisory is a starting point for decision making. The actual avalanche hazard could be greater or lower where you are traveling. Pay close attention to any signs of instability: Shooting cracks, recent avalanche activity, collapse noises and whumphing. Snow showers will linger in the area through tonight as arctic area pushes the warm front out of the region with high winds.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Snow showers will linger in the area through tonight as arctic air pushes the warm front out of the region with high winds. With new snow and wind the avalanche danger will remain the same. If you are out recreating in the backcountry, please send us your observations, these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
I will issue the next advisory on Saturday, December 17, 2016.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Advisory for December 15, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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The official second rating of the year is a high alert rating.

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Avalanche Warning for December 15, 2016

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An avalanche warning is in effect for the west central Montana backcountry. The avalanche danger is now HIGH on terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Good afternoon, this is Travis Craft, with an avalanche warning for Thursday, December 15, 2016. This avalanche warning will expire at 5:00pm on December 16, 2016. The warning will be extended or terminated at that time.
This information is the responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas.
Snow and Weather
With the addition of a large amount of new snow and wind to the poor structure of the snowpack we are issuing an avalanche warning. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
We will be in the field tomorrow and will continue the warning tomorrow at 5pm or terminate it.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Warning for December 15, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 18, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 17, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is HIGH in the west central Montana backcountry on steep (>30 degrees) wind loaded slopes above 7000 feet. Human triggered avalanches are very likely on these slopes. All other slopes in the advisory area are rated CONSIDERABLE.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 17, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
The Avalanche Warning was terminated yesterday December 16, 2016 at 5pm. Mountain temperatures range from -1 F to -12 F in the region. In the Bitterroot winds are 2 mph with gusts of 4 out of the WSW and Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are calm. The forecast area received a trace amount of precipitation in the last 24 hours.
Matt and I toured in the Rattlesnake yesterday. We observed shooting cracks, whumphing, localized collapsing and recent avalanche activity. We were able to get propagation on the basal facets on all aspects. The structure of the snowpack is very poor. The last storm was accompanied by wind which has created a 16 inch wind slab on particular slopes. We observed cross loading on slopes form the wind. These steep (>30 degrees ) wind loaded slopes above 7000 ft are rated as HIGH which means avoid these slopes. The other slopes in the advisory area are rated CONSIDERABLEdue to the poor structure of the snowpack. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
The first avalanche problem are wind slabs. Windslabs have been deposited on leeward terrain on a very poor snowpack structure. We also observed some slopes to be cross loaded. Wind loaded slopes today are rated HIGH.
The second avalanche problem is the persistent slab releasing on the basal facets near the ground. This layer is distributed on all aspects above 7000 ft and is very reactive. The pertinent clues to instability alone point to widespread instability: shooting cracks, whumphing, localized collapsing and recent avalanche activity. The facets propagated on all aspects yesterday. The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE on all slopes above 7000 ft. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
Overall, do not enter complex terrain. Keep the terrain low angle and very simple. The snowpack is touchy right now.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
The next system is expected in our area Monday. We have forecasted cold negative temperatures for the next couple of days. The poor snowpack structure will stay with us with the predicted temperatures. Wind is also forecasted for the area and there is a lot of light snow available for transport to create wind slabs on the poor snowpack structure. The avalanche danger will remain the same with these conditions. Avoid all wind loaded steep slopes above 7000ft.
I will issue the next advisory on Tuesday, December 20, 2016. If you are out recreating in the backcountry, please send us your observations, these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
Ski and ride safe.

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Scott · Dec 20, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 20, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the west central Montana backcountry on steep (>35 degrees) wind loaded slopes. On all other slopes the danger is MODERATE. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 20, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 18 F to 28 F in the region. In the Bitterroot winds are 9 mph with gusts of 13 out of the SSE and Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading at 3 mph with gusts of 12 mph out of the SE. The forecast area received 1 to 3 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The SWE totals are .3 to .6.
We took sleds into the Twin Lakes in the central Bitterroot. We observed some localized cracking and wind loading of leeward slopes. We were able to get the basal facets to propagate in our ECT’s at the ground. Yurtski in the southern Swan also found these facets near the yurts and were not able to get propagation on them.
The first avalanche problem is wind slabs. These wind slabs have been deposited on a poor snowpack structure. With todays predicted high winds and new snowfall expect these slabs to grow in size.
The second avalanche concern is the persistent slab releasing at the ground. The basal facets are located throughout the advisory area. Dig into the snowpack and see if these facets propagate. Also pay attention to bullseye data.
The final problem are storm slabs. These slabs of heavier snow have been deposited on lower lighter density snow. See Video
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
It is currently snowing. The mountains are predicted to have over a foot of heavy dense snow accompanied by high winds (50 mph). With the addition of new snow and high winds expect the avalanche danger to increase rapidly. Conditions can change quickly especially with the poor snowpack structure and additional loading by the wind.
Logan will issue the next advisory on Thursday December 22, 2016.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 20, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 22, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 22, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE for the West Central Montana backcountry on steep wind loaded slopes. A MODERATE avalanche danger exits on all other slopes.
Good morning, this is Logan King with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for Thursday, December 22, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Across West Central Montana no snow was seen overnight and currently mountain temperatures are in the teens. Ridgetop winds are 20mph gusting to the 30’s out of the WSW at Point Six and are in the teens out of the ESE at Deer Mountain.
Travis and I were in the Rattlesnake yesterday, which has the shallowest snowpack in the advisory area. There is a well defined weak layer at the base of the snow pack throughout the advisory area, that is most prevalent in the Rattlesnake’s shallow snowpack.
The primary avalanche concern will be windslabs, Tuesdays wind event yielded some very stiff windslabs that are stubborn and not very reactive, but the greatest concern will be areas where softer and smaller windslabs have developed. The softer windslabs are failing and actively propagating with moderate force (video). These finding were confirmed by the Snowbowl Ski Patrol who also found the soft windslabs to be reactive during their explosive work yesterday. We had multiple observers in the Bitterroot yesterday as well who also confirmed windslabs to be the greatest concern in the southern part of the advisory area.
The secondary concern will be persistent weak layers. There are well defined facets and depth hoar throughout the region although it is not as reactive in the bitterroot (video) where the snowpack is a little deeper and stronger. The facets are obvious and hard to miss when you dig so take the time to see whats buried in the snow. There are many areas where the facets are underlying an unconsolidated snowpack, be very cautious on any slope where these facets are found especially if there is any cohesion in snow above them.

Avalanche and Weather Outlook
The stable weather pattern should persist through the day and conditions will remain the same. Mild temperatures are expected today as more snow moves into the region tonightand tomorrow.
I will issue the next advisory on Saturday December 24, 2016.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 22, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 28, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 24, 2016

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The current avalanche danger for West Central Montana is CONSIDERABLE on steep wind loaded slopes and and a MODERATE avalanche danger exits on all other slopes.
Good morning, this is Logan King with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for Saturday, December 24th, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
A storm system started working it’s way into the region yesterday afternoon and has deposited a trace to 2 inches of snow across West Central Montana so far. Mountain temperatures this morning are hovering in the low 20’s and winds are currently out of the east to south east and sustained in the teens at Point Six and Deer Mountain.
Yesterday Travis and I rode into the Swan Range and found scoured ridges and firm wind affected snow lying across steep slopes with facets and unconsolidated snow at the bottom (Video). We opted to find some safer terrain to travel on and relocated to the Missions. We found the snow in the Southern Missions to be similar to conditions in the Rattlesnake earlier this week, and the primary concern will continue to be windslabs.
There is abundant evidence of wind affected snow throughout the advisory area and features that have wind deposits will be sensitive to triggers. Be very cautious of wind affected terrain and continue to reevaluate wind and how it is affecting conditions throughout the day as wind intensities and directions are projected to change today.
The facets in the snowpack have been gaining strength but we are still finding facets and depth hoar that continue to fail near the ground. Avoid terrain where facets and persistent weak layers exist if there is any cohesive snow sitting above them even a slight density change the cohesive snow continues to act as a slab sitting on the week facets and propagate failures readily. The facets are most prevalent in areas where a shallow snowpack exist, and continue to be reactive and propagate in stability test (Video).
With the season in full swing, now is a great time to brush up or further develop your beacon skills. The beacon park is up and running at the Driftriders Hut outside of Seeley. We will provide updates as our other beacon parks get set up for you to practice on or break in that new beacon you got this holiday season.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Mountain snow and wind looks to develop through today bringing anywhere from 3-10″ inches of snow by tonight. Watch the falling snow as it will add stress to the snowpack and if significant accumulations occur give the snow some time to settle and adjust to the new load. Snow will continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning but accumulation rates will begin tapering off over night.
I will issue the next advisory on Tuesday, December 27th, 2016.
Happy Holidays, ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 24, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 28, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 27, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE for the West Central Montana backcountry, human triggered avalanches are possible on specific terrain. Careful evaluation of terrain, weather, and snowpack will be critical as conditions change throughout the day today.
Good morning, this is Logan King with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for Tuesday, December 27th, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Over the weekend 6-10 inches of low density snow fell across the advisory area. Winds remained calm through Sunday morning but have climbed back up and are currently gusting into the 20’s from the south. A trace to 3 inches of new snow accumulated overnight and mountain temperatures are currently in the teens.
Yesterday Josh and went to the rattlesnake to see how the new snow was bonding to and affecting the snowpack. We found that the primary concern continues to be windslabs. Of greatest concern will be soft windslabs that formed over the weekend sitting on old hard windslabs that provide a good surface for shear. With variable winds that are fairly sustained windslabs will continue to develop on a variety of aspects and will further stress the snowpack. Winds shifted throughout the storm and windslabs can be found on nearly every aspect and cross loading will be problematic. Carefully evaluate slopes for signs of wind affect before you chose to recreate on them.
The persistent slab problem is moving the right direction as depth hoar is gaining strength and is not as reactive. The persistent weak layers will need more time to settle and gain strength before we can stop identifying them as a problem. Facets will continue to be of concern in areas where the snowpack is shallower or stressed from the new load and will require careful evaluation.
Loose snow avalanches are also a concern as the new low density snow will likely be moving on the snow surface in steeper terrain. Be cautious of any terrain traps that will increase the consequences of getting caught in a loose snow or sluff avalanche.
The beacon park at Snowbowl is now operational, so get out and practice with your beacons.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Mountain snow and and strong winds looks to develop through today bringing anywhere from 3-12″ inches of snow by tomorrow. Watch the falling snow as it will add stress to the snowpack and if significant accumulations occur give the snow a few days to settle and adjust to the new load. Snow will continue through tonight and into tomorrow but the bulk of the snow looks to come today and tonight. With good accumulation and winds in the 50+mph range expected in the mountains, avalanche danger will increase significantly in the next 24-48 hours.
The next advisory will be issued on Thursday, December 29th, 2016.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 27, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 28, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 28, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is HIGH in the Bitterroot Range of the West Central Montana backcountry. On all other slopes in the advisory area the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Travel on wind loaded slopes is not recommended. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 28, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 11 F to 23 F in the region. In the Bitterroot winds are 7 mph with gusts of 14 out of the WSW. In the northern part of the advisory area, at Point Six, winds are reading 31 mph with gusts of 40 mph out of the west. The forecast area received 2 to 12 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours with the greater portion of snow falling in the southern half of the advisory area. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from .4 to 1.3 inches of water.
In the last 24 hours the advisory area has received a large new load of snow accompanied with high winds. Snowbowl ski patrol reported 3 inches of new snow and slabs developing during the day. Lost Trail Ski Area reported 14 new inches of snow and Chair 4 was closed due to wind. The primary avalanche concerns are wind slabs that have developed during the storm.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Widespread light to moderate snow and gusty winds will continue this morning and early afternoon for the mountains of western Montana. Some isolated snow bands could produce localized areas of 1 inch per hour snow rates for a period of time this morning. Expect the avalanche danger to increase with continued snow and wind.
I will issue the next advisory tomorrow.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Advisory for December 28, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 30, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 29, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is HIGH in the Bitterroot Range of the west central Montana backcountry on steep(>30) wind-loaded slopes. On all other slopes in the advisory area the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Travel on wind-loaded slopes is not recommended. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 29, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 6 F to 14 F in the region. In the Bitterroot, winds are 13 mph with gusts of 18 mph out of the SE and Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading at 15 mph with gusts of 20 mph out of the SW. The forecast area received 5 to 24 inches of new snow in the last 48 hours favoring the southern region. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from .4 to 1.5 inches of water.
Logan and I rode the sleds into Twin Lakes in the central Bitterroots yesterday. We found over 2 feet of new snow and winds actively loading leeward terrain. We observed 4 natural wind slab avalanches that had released during the last 24 hours. Downing Mountain Lodge sent us observations over the last 72 hours of wind slabs forming 1 to 2 feet deep and were touchy to triggers. Matt was at Lolo Pass and observed storm slabs that were easily triggered by skiers and leeward terrain being actively loaded by wind.
The primary avalanche problem today are wind slabs. The region has received several inches of new snow and the winds have transported snow to leeward terrain. We observed these slabs releasing naturally and John from Downing Mountain Lodge in the central Bitterroot, described them as touchy to human triggers.
The second avalanche concern is the storm slab. These were observed by Matt at Lolo Pass and were easily triggered by a skier. These range in depth throughout the area from 5 inches to over 2 feet.
The last concern are dry loose releases. These sloughs can be very large and could potentially carry a rider into a terrain trap (rocks, cliffs,or trees).
Bullseye clues to instability from yesterday to aid in your assessment of instability in the mountains: natural avalanche activity, whumfing, shooting cracks from skis, new snow, and active wind transport of snow. These signs help to identify the snowpack is unstable and should be given some time to adjust to the new load of snow. Choose low angle terrain to get a feel for current conditions.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
The snowpack needs time to adjust to the new snow. The advisory area will see gusty winds today which will continue to load leeward terrain. The region is forecasted to have a new system move into the area tonight and Friday bringing with it low snow totals. With the current winds expect the avalanche danger to remain the same.
I will issue the next advisory on December 31, 2016.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Advisory for December 29, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Dec 31, 2016

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Avalanche Advisory for December 31, 2016

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The current avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the west central Montana backcountry. This means careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential to recreate today. Human triggered avalanches are likely.
Happy New Year! This is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for December 31, 2016. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 7 F to 20 F in the region. In the Bitterroot, winds are 10 mph with gusts of 16 mph out of the SW and Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading 23 mph with gusts of 34 mph out of the WNW. The forecast area received 0 to 2 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from 0 to .4 inches of water.
Matt and I toured in the Rattlesnake yesterday. We observed shooting cracks from our skis and multiple aspects with wind slabs. In our tests we found that the basal facets propagated at the ground. Ed toured in the southern Bitterroot and he was able to get this layer to fail in compression tests, but not propagate. Ed observed shooting cracks from his skis and slopes being cross-loaded.
The primary avalanche problem are wind slabs. These are found on multiple aspects and some slopes are cross-loaded. Winds have deposited wind slabs mid-slope and on ridge tops.
The second avalanche concern is the persistent slab that is releasing near the ground on basal facets. Matt and I were able to get this layer to propagate in our tests yesterday. This layer is more likely to be triggered in areas with a relative shallow snowpack (cliff bands, rollovers, and rock outcrops). This layer takes a fair bit of force to trigger, but the consequences are very high. I would dig a pit and assess this layer before committing to any steep terrain.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
An arctic front will enter the area tonight bringing with it snow and gusty winds throughout the weekend. Temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly by Monday. With the addition of new snow and gusting high winds the avalanche danger will increase.
I will issue the next advisory on January 03, 2017.
Ski and ride safe into the new year.

The post Avalanche Advisory for December 31, 2016 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Jan 3, 2017

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Avalanche Advisory for January 3, 2017

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE in the west central Montana backcountry. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Happy New Year! This is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 03, 2017. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from -5 F to 2 F in the region. In the Bitterroot, winds are 8 mph with gusts of 11 mph out of the S. Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading 5 mph with gusts of 8 mph out of the S. The forecast area received 0 to 2 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from 0 to .2 inches of water.
Josh and I toured near Lolo Pass yesterday and observed wind loaded slopes. We had failures in compression tests on the basal facets and on a layer two feet from the surface, but no propagation in ECT’s. The WCMAC received a public observation from this weekend. In a pit dug on MT. Fuji, near Lolo Pass, the layer 2 feet from the surface propagated. The skiers backed off and choose lower angle terrain. Downing Mountain Lodge, in the central Bitterroot, sent in observations that no red flag data (cracking, collapsing and shooting cracks) was observed on tours. Dudley was in the Rattlesnake and was able to get the basal facets to propagate.
The primary avalanche problems are the persistent slabs. There are two layers (1.) 2 feet from the surface and (2.) the basal facets on the ground. Both these layers are reactive in tests. The only way to find these instabilities is to put your shovel in the snow and test them. Before committing to any steep terrain dig a pit and assess these layers.
The second concern are wind slabs. These are present in the advisory area on leeward terrain. Look for recently deposited slabs on ridge tops and some slopes are cross loaded.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook.
Cold and dry conditions are forecasted for the rest of the week. Temperatures should warm by Thursday. The avalanche danger should remain the same with the predicted weather. Dig in the snow to assess the layers of concern and pay attention to any red flag data.
All of our beacon parks are up and running:

Lolo Pass- near the visiter center
Snowbowl- off the top chair
Lost Trail- on the top of chair
Seeley Lake- at the warming hut.

We have many events in the upcoming weeks, check our calendar for listings. If you are going out to recreate in the backcountry, please send us your observations these are very helpful in producing the advisory. Logan will issue the next advisory on January 05, 2017.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Advisory for January 3, 2017 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Jan 6, 2017

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Avalanche Advisory for January 5, 2017

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE in the West Central Montana backcountry. Large human triggered avalanches are possible in isolated areas and careful evaluation of conditions will be required before recreating in avalanche terrain.
Good morning, this is Logan King with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 5th, 2017. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
For the last 24 hours ridge-top winds have prevailed from the east to northeast but are shifting back towards a northwesterly flow this morning and have dropped to 14mph gusts at Point 6. Strong easterly winds aloft were visible from Missoula yesterday as trails of snow could be seen blowing off of Carlton Ridge and Lolo Peak. Mountain temperatures continue to be frigid and are ranging from -16 to 1 degree fahrenheit this morning. No new snow was seen in the advisory area overnight.
The primary avalanche concern today will be windslabs. With strong easterly winds, windslabs and cross loading can be found on nearly all aspects. Yesterday in the Rattlesnake we found the windslab to propagate with moderate force in extended column tests. With unusual winds you will see unusual windslab development so take the time to assess each slope independently to determine if windloading has occurred (video).
Persistent slabs continue to be a concern due to facets on the ground. The facets have gained strength over the last week but the healing process has slowed with the cold temperatures. Small isolated layers of buried surface hoar were reactive in stability tests yesterday as well and with windslabs and buried surface hoar reacting the possibly of an avalanche stepping down to the basal facets is a significant concern.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook.
Cold and Clear conditions will persist today, before giving way to the next system that should be arriving this weekend. Snow levels look to climb along with temperatures as the weather shifts at the tail end of the week. Avalanche conditions will be consistent until the weather pattern changes.
If you get out in the backcountry please feel free to share your observations on the public observations page. I will Issue the next advisory on Saturday.
Stay warm out there.
The post Avalanche Advisory for January 5, 2017 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Jan 10, 2017

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Avalanche Advisory for January 7, 2017

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE in the West Central Montana backcountry. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible in specific terrain. Carefully evaluate a slope before traveling on or below it.
Good morning, this is Logan King with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for Saturday January 7th, 2017. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Cold conditions continue to dominate the region, current mountain temperatures range from -2 to 14 degrees fahrenheit in West Central Montana. Winds this morning are from the south east and are gusting to 15mph at Point Six and 26mph at Deer Mountain. Snowfall has been limited since the cold air mass moved into the region with most parts of the advisory area seeing a maximum of about an inch of snow this week.
Yesterday Travis and I rode around Seeley Lake and found the basal facets to be mildly reactive in stability test. The greatest concern will be buried surface hoar that Matt observed at Lolo pass yesterday and we also saw in the Rattlesnake earlier this week. The buried surface hoar is propagating with moderate force in stability tests. The basal facets although less reactive will be a major concern for step down avalanches if the upper snow starts to move and will still warrant attention. The only way to know if buried surface hoar or basal facets exists is to dig, so take the time to look at the snow before you choose to recreate. Over the last few days we have seen widespread surface hoar growth throughout the advisory area, although not a concern at moment it will become problematic once a load is added on top of the new surface hoar.
Windslabs will be the secondary concern today. The winds have been erratic over the past week and cross-loading and windslabs can be observed on nearly all aspects and elevations. The winds have decreased and shifted again over the last 24 hours and have given the snow some time to adjust to the windslabs.
The West Central Montana Avalanche Center would like to extend our deepest condolences to friends and families of all involved in the avalanche fatality in Southern Glacier National Park on Thursday. An incident investigation is currently underway by the Flathead Avalanche Center and more information regarding the avalanche should be posted in the next few days.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook.
The cold and calm trend will continue through today and give way to a warm wet system tonight which looks to intensify and peak late Sunday and into Monday. With a heavy new load and another layer of surface hoar getting buried the avalanche danger will increase significantly. Continually evaluate the snow as conditions look to change drastically over the next 48 hours.
If you get out in the backcountry please feel free to share your observations on the public observations page. I will issue the next regular advisory on Tuesday.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for January 7, 2017 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Jan 12, 2017

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Avalanche Advisory for January 12, 2017

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE in the west central Montana backcountry. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Human triggered avalanches are possible.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 12, 2017. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from -2 F to 16 F in the region. Winds are calm in the Bitterroot. Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading 5 mph with gusts of 10 mph out of the W. The forecast area received 0 to 3 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from 0 to .2 inches of water.
Tim and I toured in the Rattlesnake yesterday. We experienced excellent visibility and decreasing instabilities in the snow pack. John Lehrman, from Downing Mountain Lodge in the central Bitterroots, sent us observations finding the new snow is bonding well to the old snow surfaces.
The first avalanche problem is persistent slabs. There are two layers of concern that are on all aspects and elevations. The first layer is near surface facets located below a crust 30 cm from the surface. Tim and I were able to get this layer to propagate in only 1 of our ECT’s on a south slope. The basal facets are the second layer of concern. We were not able to get these to propagate in ECT’s, but they did fail in compression tests. The only way to assess these layers is to dig a pit and see if these layers are reactive.
The second avalanche concern is wind slabs. Our last storm consisted of dense snow accompanied with moderate winds. The wind was able to produce small wind slabs on the north aspects of the compass. These slabs are possible to trigger today.
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
We are entering a cold and dry period. Expect an increase in sunshine towards the weekend. Expect the danger rating to stay the same with the current forecast.
We are sponsoring a free weather lecture tonight at the University of Montana in the North Urey Underground Lecture Hall from 6:00 pm to 8:00 pm. Check our education page for more information.
If you are out in the backcountry please send us your observations, these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
I will issue the next advisory on Saturday, January 14, 2017.
Ski and ride safe.

The post Avalanche Advisory for January 12, 2017 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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Scott · Jan 19, 2017

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Avalanche Advisory for January 14, 2017

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The current avalanche danger is MODERATE in the west central Montana backcountry. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Human triggered avalanches are possible.
Good morning, this is Travis Craft with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 14, 2017. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight and is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.
Weather and Snowpack
Mountain temperatures range from 2 F to 16 F in the region. Winds are 6 mph with gusts of 9 mph in the Bitterroot. Point Six, in the northern part of the advisory area, winds are reading 17 mph with gusts of 21 mph out of the W. The forecast area received 0 to 3 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The new snow had SWE’s ranging from 0 to .3 inches of water.
Steve and I toured in the Rattlesnake yesterday. Jacob and Ed were near Lost Trail Pass. Matt is at Yurtski in the Southern Swan. All observer’s had excellent visibility and stable weather. Everyone found significant surface hoar growth throughout the advisory area. Instabilities in our snowpack are slowly gaining strength, though human triggered avalanches are still possible.
The first avalanche problem is persistent slabs. There are two layers (1.) 2 feet from the surface of near surface facets and (2.) the basal facets on the ground. The layers are gaining strength. All three groups were able to get failures on these layers in compression tests, but ECT’s did not propagate. Matt triggered a small 15 ft by 20 ft soft slab on the near surface facets in the Swan, on an East facing slope in a shallow snowpack near a rock. You need to put your shovel in the snow to see how reactive these layers are. Avoid steep, rocky terrain and slopes with a shallow snowpack.
The second avalanche problem is wind slabs. Matt observed significant cross loading on West facing slopes in the Swan. Steve and I saw wind slabs on North facing slopes in the Rattlesnake. Wind slabs are present in the region, identify them and avoid them.
The final avalanche problem is loose dry avalanches on steep>35-degree slopes. Ed and Jacob observed natural point releases in the Bitterroot. Steve and I found natural sluffs in the Rattlesnake on steep terrain>40-degrees. These should not be a problem to manage unless they carry you into a terrain trap(cliff, rocks or trees).
Avalanche and Weather Outlook
Cold valley temperatures with warmer temperatures in the mountains. Warming trend through the weekend. Our next chance for significant precipitation is Monday evening. Expect the Avalanche danger to stay the same.
If you are out in the backcountry, please send us your observations, these are very helpful in producing the advisory.
I will issue the next advisory on Tuesday, January 17, 2017.
Ski and ride safe.
The post Avalanche Advisory for January 14, 2017 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.

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2016-17 W. Central Montana Avy conditions thread---"NO RATING"

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

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Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

Scott Stiegler

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