11- 12 DEC THURS - FRI STORM "forecast"

[donbrown]

Right now, storm likelihood in california at 75%

Start out warm 50's for Thursday with up to 2 inches rain then some time Friday (AM OR PM) will turn to snow with temps Friday night into the teens ... 1-3 feet

Lingering storms Friday night will bring snow levels to 4000 feet.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND the last storm was similar but a low pressure brought very warm H2O from the EQUATOR.

THis storm is suppose to bring H2O from the pineapple couple with a blast of cold from the GULF OF ALASKA.

PLAN on riding 13 DEC SAT

 

[donbrown]

7 DEC --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

storm 11-12 DEC likelihood in California at 75% SOCAL

90 % likelihood Mammoth , Tahoe , Donner and north etc.


Water amounts have gone down a little but dumpage still 1-3 feet at 7000 feet

NEW storm 15-16 DEC likelihood 30%

 

[Tahoepow]

This storm looks like a beast in the models. COuld set the stage for the season in the high country. I'll be looking to get some at Sheeps flat on Friday if the plows allow for parking. Hopefully its a pinfest with some stucks in between.

 

[donbrown]

Confidence for storm happening 11-12 DEC is over 95%

Snow levels and amounts may change but the MJO confirms it will happen

Predicting the climate and weather variations related to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO in grid 6 and 7 are great for the west coast . I think but not positive is the circle in the middle called the circle of death cause not gonna happen the farther from the circle the more likely and more intense a storm

picture above is always changing BUT a few days ago it showed 10 plus inches around TAHOE now shows 8 inches.

Of all the storm 11-12 dec starts PM Thursday ends early AM Saturday ... 2/3 of it starts as rain last 1/3 snow and stays cold thru Monday where a second storm 30% chance for Sierras 15-17 dec.

 

[byeatts]

Confidence for storm happening 11-12 DEC is over 95%

Snow levels and amounts may change but the MJO confirms it will happen

Predicting the climate and weather variations related to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO in grid 6 and 7 are great for the west coast . I think but not positive is the circle in the middle called the circle of death cause not gonna happen the farther from the circle the more likely and more intense a storm

picture above is always changing BUT a few days ago it showed 10 plus inches around TAHOE now shows 8 inches.

Of all the storm 11-12 dec starts PM Thursday ends early AM Saturday ... 2/3 of it starts as rain last 1/3 snow and stays cold thru Monday where a second storm 30% chance for Sierras 15-17 dec.

10 inches snow or rain content?

 

[kylant]

it all depends when the cold air from the north meets the warm flow from the south. from what i have read, there is no consensus when this will happen. there is also no agreement where the snow level will be.

the weather service is saying “several feet”

the storm has potential for a lot of snow. sure hope so
lets get this party started

 

[donbrown]

10 inches snow or rain content?

The number on the graph are inches of water BUT has always been less so far this season

Tahoe area was 8 this morning 8dec now 6.9

 

[poesleddin]

Hope we are the Bulls Eye this time

 

[donbrown]

Jet stream dipping lowest in several years into SOCAL taking cold air and low pressure

3 storms now on the radar

11-12 Thurs-Friday 95% gonna happen

snowing to 4000 feet 1-3 feet @7k from KERN county into Oregon

15-17 Dec mon-wed 30% chance some snow not a lot

19-21 fri -sat not sure of likelihood ... forecasters talking like its gonna be a big one but too far away to feel confident

 

[donbrown]

3 storms now on the radar

11-12 Thurs-Friday 99% gonna happen

snowing to 4000 feet SAT morn
1-3 feet @7k from KERN county into Oregon

15-17 Dec mon-wed 75% chance snow on Tahoe the lake

19-21 fri -sat not sure of likelihood ... forecasters talking like its gonna be a big one but too far away to feel confident

Just letting you know first storm will bring costal winds around 60 MPH around San Luis Obispo - Santa Barbara

IF IF IF storms do hit most moisture in 10 days 13-23 DEC for NORCAL in last 10 years .... so states the NWS discussion

 

[zilla]

Nice !

 

[snowrdr]

let this be true!

Only harsh part of this storm is the wind forecast for Reno..... Batten down the hatches Wind Warning starts tomorrow and expecting 30-50 with gusts to 70-90

 

[bholmlate]

I will believe what ever my weather rock tells me. It has never let me down yet. I wish i could say the same about weather forecasts

 

[donbrown]

let this be true!

Only harsh part of this storm is the wind forecast for Reno..... Batten down the hatches Wind Warning starts tomorrow and expecting 30-50 with gusts to 70-90

Mammoth forecaster is declaring this might well be the biggest storm series in over 2 years


Storm will start gradual BUT then a COLD FRONT WILL HIT WILL 23-30 MPH winds at 7k gusts to 70 with rainfall at least inches per hour turning to a BLIZZARD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL

They are saying first 2/3 storm heavy rain last 1/3 snow to 5000 feet.

 

[donbrown]

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TRUCKEE...
BRIDGEPORT...MAMMOTH LAKES...INCLINE VILLAGE
237 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET

WITH UP TO 12 INCHES DOWN TO 6000 FEET.
* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 60 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIDGE WINDS WILL EXCEED 100 MPH.
* SNOW LEVELS: 7000 TO 7500 FEET DROPPING TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS MAY LOCALLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO LAKE TAHOE LEVEL EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.* IMPACTS: WIND AND SNOW MAY COMBINE TO CREATE LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY. SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST PASSES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS IN THE TAHOE BASIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY
CREATE HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

 

[kylant]

watch is now a warning.

it’s coming, but when, where, and how much is still being debated.

 

[donbrown]

watch is now a warning.

it’s coming, but when, where, and how much is still being debated.

Rainfall / moisture is represented by colors on radar.

Light rain green moderate yellow severe red and then there is BLACK.

THERE ARE TWO LARGE BLACK BANDS OF RAIN OFF THE COAST OF CALI AND OREGON.

For CLIFORNIA Main severest 60 mile across dumpage band is SUPPOSE TO MAKE land between SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA and dump inward 60-100 miles for 1-6 hours. epicenter 1/2 to 2 inches water an hour ... 7 inches total
WINDS 30-40 MPH AT BEACH GUSTS TO - at 7000 feet46-0 PH sutained with gust to10MH over the crest.

6PM THURSAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY GONNA BE INTERESTING


Of this 24 hour storm 6hrs is going to be intense the rest buildup and aftermath.

STILL up north Eureka - Oregon - Seattle gonna get some if notmore rain .... just less intense.

NEXT STORM 15-17 tosnow daily on the Lake in TAHO 1-3 inches each day 80% likelihood

THEN another storm 19-21 not much on it ... everyone focused on the next 72hours for the 24 hours biggest storm in many years coming. 60% likelihood for9-21 dec storm

 

[snowrdr]

Don thanks for the updates! Hang on!

 

[donbrown]

Don thanks for the updates! Hang on!

Im excited ! Took a vacation day Saturday to go ride!


OAKLAND SANFRANCICO and some other school districts are not having school Thursday because of the potential hazards from this storm

All computer models are increasing the total snowfall and rain amounts or these storms !!!!!

 

[kylant]

the weather channel is predicting 20-25” at kirkwood over the next 2 days.
they tend to predict on the low side. even if their estimate is low, 20” will be a good start. so the red lake/blue lakes area should get good snow.
lets hope