yuck weather ... next storm 7 Nov

[donbrown]

THE LONGER RANGE KEEPS RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH THE UPPER HEIGHTS AT 500MB FALLING TOWARD WEEKS END....THEN A POSSIBLE STORM AROUND THE 7TH OF NOV. THAT WAS ACCORDING TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT. I DID NOT HAVE TIME TO LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING, SO TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

LONGER RANGE:

THE REST OF THE MONTH OF OCT AND "INTO" THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER LOOK DRY.



Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:34:20 AM

"BURRR!!! 13 DEGREES THIS MORNING...HIGH TEMPS CONFINED TO THE UPPER 20S TODAY NEAR THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH"

MAMMOTH PICKED UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER NIGHT AND ANOTHER INCH COULD FALL THIS MORNING. PRETTY MUCH AS FORECASTED, THE SYSTEM WAS MOSTLY WIND AND COLD. NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT YET FROM LEE VINING.

THIS MORNINGS 12Z WRF HAD THE UPPER JET OF 150KNOTS NORTH-SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN CA/NV BORDER SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF MANHATTAN BEACH CA. THE UPPER JET WILL BECOME MORE POSITIVE TILT TODAY AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST AWAY FROM THE GOLDEN STATE TOMORROW. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, OFF SHORE, WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRAP A LOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN CA THIS WEEKEND. UPPER ELEVATIONS LIKE MAMMOTH COULD RETURN TO NEAR 60 DEGREES BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS TRAPPED IN THE 40S. NIGHT TIME LOWS FOR ALL HALLOWS EVE IN MAMMOTH ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S HERE IN MAMMOTH. NOT TOO BAD FOR THE LITTLE WITCHES!

THE LONGER RANGE KEEPS RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH THE UPPER HEIGHTS AT 500MB FALLING TOWARD WEEKS END....THEN A POSSIBLE STORM AROUND THE 7TH OF NOV. THAT WAS ACCORDING TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT. I DID NOT HAVE TIME TO LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING, SO TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

LONGER RANGE:

THE REST OF THE MONTH OF OCT AND "INTO" THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER LOOK DRY.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.............................

 

[jpxp154]

well at least some kind of weather is coming to cali.

 

[David24]

You probably can wait to ride that XP 600. HUH!!

 

[jpxp154]

stop talking about my 800xp. and why dont you buy one already you tight $$$. this thread is about weather thanks don for posting these weather statements.

 

[donbrown]

Thursday, October 29, 2009 8:48:46 AM


"A RAPID WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN COLD UNDER THE INVERSION INTO THE WEEKEND.....HIGHS IN MAMMOTH WILL REACH LOW 60S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK......NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP ABOUT THE 8TH OF NOVEMBER"

IT WILL BE RIDGE CITY THIS WEEKEND FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA WITH 30 TO 35 DEGREES OF WARMING BY MONDAY. THUS LOW 60S IS IN STORE FOR MAMMOTH BY SUNDAY. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE COLD TEENS TO THE 20S OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF TOWN, THEN EVEN WARMING TO THE LOW 30S BY MONDAY AM. LONG VALLEY TEMPS COULD REACH BELOW 0 THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE MONTH OF OCT AND "INTO" THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER LOOK DRY.

THE LONGER RANGE:

7 TO 8 OUT OF 12 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF GFS HAD A LONG WAVE TROF....FAR ENOUGH AND DEEP ENOUGH SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO MAMMOTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MORNINGS......
THURSDAY 0000 UTC GFS 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts
5-Day Means Centered on Days 3, 5, and 8
7-Day Mean Centered on Day 11;

HAD THE DOOR OPENING THE 2ND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR THE WEST COAST AS THE ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF ICELAND ALLOWING THE BIG TROF OVER THE EAST TO SHIFT WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS ALLOWS A RATHER EXCESSIVE WAVE LENGTH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS....AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY WAS FORECASTED WELL INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY, CANADA, SO NO DEEP VORTEX THERE TO RIDGE UP THE WEST. THERE IS A CLIMO SUPPORT FOR WEST COAST STORMINESS THE WEEK OF THE 18TH OF NOVEMBER.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.............................

 

[brahm]

Sorry guys, this is my fault. I took apart my rev to work on the R.A.V.E and found some broken parts I made a deal with devil to keep the snow away until it's put back together, and once it is it will dump more snow then we will know what to do with, I get my parts in on the Nov3rd, so the 7th sounds just about right.

 

[donbrown]

This confirms my conspiracy theory.

 

[travisw1973]

Good luck with the R.A.V.E. a little snow on the 7th sounds good to me!

 

[brahm]

AH DAMMIT WHEN WILL IT END.. IT'S 60's ALL WEEK. I Blame my co-worker who is still riding his bike