World War III

[polaris dude]

So, just curious what do you guys think of the possibility of this occurring within the next 10 years or so? The conditions seem pretty ripe in my opinion. There aren't necessarily 2 sides yet, but i am looking more at the economic side of things where i see many conditions ripe for a war to come about.

For instance I could see the USA going to war with China. It could start by China demanding its money that the US owes it and the US saying sorry we don't have it. Then China trying to take the Philippines and then going from there.

I say that the economic factors are conducive to war for numerous reasons. The first in my opinion is the population boom of the last 10 years. China has like 2Billion alone and the US also has a significant number of people. Also, in the USA the work force is too large and it is causing the pay for jobs to go down due to diminished demand for employees. A war would increase the economy tremendously and increase salaries. Not to mention, that every child since they could understand the concept of guns has been trained to want honor and glory associated with war. This has been trained into children through the use of video games and things of that nature.

 

[milehighassassin]

I don't think it's a possibility. For the record the USA owes Russia far more money than we do China. The money we owe we are paying on and have not defaulted. They loaned the money with an agreement that we pay it back, the agreement does not include a "you must pay now" clause. They are earning interest on the money loaned to us. The Majority of US Debt is held privately. We owe Russia the most money, China as a country is not owed a lot of money.

Also, the likelihood that China attacks anyone that is not near their mainland is minimal at this point. They are not a very mobile military. They just built their 1st aircraft carrier not too long ago, and it was a scrapped Russian air craft carrier that they "fixed up". China is extremely strong when it comes to defense, but they are not a strong offensive power outside of their country (although a very large country).

World War III would be far more likely to happen in the Middle East with Israel being the center, Pakistan, India, Iran, Syria, etc.

 

[polaris dude]

What About China's Ownership of the Debt?

As of December 2011, China owned more than $1 trillion of America's national debt. This is more than Japan or the UK, the next two biggest foreign owners. Despite all the concerns about U.S. debt default, China has been increasing its holdings, so it must not be too worried. It still sees the U.S. as a safe investment. More important, China wants to keep the value of the dollar high. This makes its own currency, the yuan, relatively cheaper by comparison. That helps China's exports to the U.S. seem more affordable, which helps its economy grow. That's why, despite China's occasional threats to sell its holdings, it's happy to be America's biggest banker, and largest owner of U.S. debt. Article updated March 1, 2012
http://useconomy.about.com/od/monetarypolicy/f/Who-Owns-US-National-Debt.htm

I could very easily see it start in the middle east. My point isn't trying to guess where it is, only that it will inevitably happen in the near future(10 years).

 

[milehighassassin]

I don't think it will happen.

That debt is private debt. Not debt owned by a country. Private Chinese citizens.


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[polaris dude]

I don't think it will happen.

That debt is private debt. Not debt owned by a country. Private Chinese citizens.


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your too much of a realist. Where are the conspiracy theorists at?!?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/b...emains-tied-to-treasuries.html?pagewanted=all

^this proves that the Chinese government does in fact hold that debt.

 

[AKSNOWRIDER]

heres my take..evey world war fought by us started when we were hurting economically..fact of life..and the easiest way in the world to fix an ailing world economy..will it happen in the next 10 yrs...maybe but it will happen sooner or later...

 

[mold]

If it does happen, China will be on our side.

 

[polaris dude]

If it does happen, China will be on our side.

How do you figure?

@aksnow indeed that is the basis I was going off from. And while I used to think that with a world economy things like that would no longer happen for fear of MAD now I am not so sure...

 

[Raff_9001M]

I would think China would have a lot to lose financially if its biggest customer was a war weakened country. The only thing I would worry about from China is its need for natural resources.

 

[AKSNOWRIDER]

the economy isnt bad enough yet..once it gets to where they cant just keep printing junk bills...it will happen..when it does..it will be a nasty one...JMO....

 

[milehighassassin]

China needs us more than we need them. We can crash their economy instantly.... If we just shut down trade their economy is done.

Yeah we lose out on some stuff but they instantly crash.


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[The Fourth Wolf]

If there is a WWIII it will come through Mexico.

Here's how I see it (potentially)

The US wants and needs a more stable Mexico to create the economic incentives for Mexicans to stay in their own country. That takes jobs, manufacturing jobs primarily. NAFTA was supposed to do that, and has to a point, but not enough to have any real impact.

China's economy becomes ever Westernized and soon (10-15 years) there will be a recession there as workers begin demanding more pay and benefits, thereby cutting into the crazy profits currently being raked in by Chinese manufacturers.

Mexico would be the natural place to export manufacturing jobs to--cheap labor, lax environmental laws, and a "generous" government. It also is the perfect back door for an ambitious China to get a foothold in North America.

Then I suspect it will take a major natural disaster in Mexico like an earthquake or flooding to create a humanitarian crisis of sufficient magnitude that China's offer of military aid--medical, clean-up and reconstruction will go unchallenged by the US. Maybe China will offer to forgive some debt as a sweetener.

Once this happens, China will incrementally increase it's military presence in Mexico--hosting joint training exercises, opening bases, adding a tank division here and a fighter jet wing there...all while outfitting and upgrading the Mexican military with Chinese weapons and hardware.

Once China gets around 100,000 troops in Mexico they will be position for an invasion, if that's their goal. 100,000 Chinese backed by 60-70,000 Mexicans roll across the border and seize San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso and Houston.

The American resistance will be primarily naval and the fighting at sea will be furious. Our carrier advantage will be neutralized by China's aggressive improvement of it's navy, in particular the expansion of its attack sub fleet. Europe will not help us, save England who won't have a credible military by that point. Neither will Canada. The world will shrug saying in effect "It's been a long time coming"

The US will capitulate in 6 months

The American citizenry will resist until they run out of ammo--about a year.

2045, there about.

 

[ruffryder]

Once China gets around 100,000 troops in Mexico they will be position for an invasion, if that's their goal. 100,000 Chinese backed by 60-70,000 Mexicans roll across the border and seize San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso and Houston.

I think Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that this is extremely difficult to do. Note that those two countries had no infrastructure, limited knowledge, and limited resources.

It would be extremely more difficult to try and invade a civilized city, whether it be China and Mexico, or even the US. It hasn't been done and would be extremely costly (monetarily and personnel) to try and do that.

Something to remember is that the US is the largest manufacturer of weapons in the world. We sell a crazy amount of arms to other countries. Imagine if the equipment was needed here. Imagine what Boeing and Pratt&Whitney and Lockhead would be doing if they were getting invaded. We have been very lucky that the mainland USA hasn't had to defend itself in a long time, though it makes people forget what extraordinary measures that people undertake to defend themselves and their loved ones.

IMO, there won't be a WWIII. There is no point. The end of WWII shows that the loser of a war is the one that is scared into surrendering. Japan surrendered due to the nuclear bombs dropped on their country. IMO, a WWIII would result in immediate nuke fest, and therefore won't happen.

 

[milehighassassin]

Chinese workers are already demanding workers rights.

Mexico is tied to the U.S. and are very unlikely to allow China to put a base in. One base and they would lose all US support. Border would then have a real reason to be closed down.
Plus China is still not mobile. They don't have the ability to support a base on the other side of the world.



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[christopher]

If you are seriously looking at international conflict and situations that could "spiral out of control" leading to worldwide engagement, I would pay very close attention to Israel and Iran right now.

There has been an enormous amount of "noise" coming out of the middle east of an impending strike by Israel against Iran.

Both Russia and China have serious stakes in this game and could be drawn in.

And don't ignore the Chemical/Biological weapons that are in Syria right now. They could well be a part of this mixture.

 

[polaris dude]

I like the 4th wolf's story but I too can't see it happening due to how close Mexico is to the US in terms of money and political ties. And I also cannot see a meager 200,000 troops storming the US and winning. It would be a slaughter. The number of people in the USA who own guns and wouldn't hesitate to shoot a bunch of invaders of their land and homes is pretty solid. I wouldn't hesitate to guess that 30% of the country is to a degree has the ability to operate a firearm.

But yes, I could definitely see Israel and Iran being the spark that ignites a world war. Those 2 countries are so polarizing and both have a solid amount of strong alliances. Its like what started WW1. All it would take is an assassination. But if Iran is stupid and attempts to launch a nuke that would instantly change everything and the entire world would decimate Iran.

 

[AKSNOWRIDER]

yeah, doubtful anyone is dumb enough to try and invade the usa...we have the largest private militia in the world(us gun owners)and the best military in the world...but world war starting in the middle east..that is very likely...personally..if we have to go there again..I say we flatten it and pave it so we dont ever have to deal with it again....

 

[ruffryder]

yeah, doubtful anyone is dumb enough to try and invade the usa...we have the largest private militia in the world(us gun owners)and the best military in the world...but world war starting in the middle east..that is very likely...personally..if we have to go there again..I say we flatten it and pave it so we dont ever have to deal with it again....

I say we let China and Russia deal with it.. We shouldn't be dealing with countries that are half way around the world. Our attention span isn't long enough.

 

[polaris dude]

I agree with AKsnow. It quite frankly isn't our problem and if we are forced to go over there I say we invade, kill the hostiles, and conquer. Screw going in, taking down some strategic targets, rebuilding infrastructure, and handing the land/country back to lawlessness.

 

[treemagnet03]

One three letter word keeps us in anything in the middle east:

OIL.

Without it even the idiots in politics wouldn't touch that area with a ten foot pole.


And while on the topic of touchy issues, I see a more difficult situation arising with the ascent of Islamic demands in the western world and the general apathy in the places they are moving (ie here). They demand what we would otherwise call discrimination. I read the other day that several investors are looking at building Muslim specific hotels that are "halal" friendly and offer such amenities as separate male and female swimming pools and rooms for prayer. Yeah. That may not go over very well and I certainly would be less interested in the swimming pools...