Winter Forecast

[Snodawg]

Looked up the winter forecast on the Farmer's Almanac, but could only go out to September. Did find a forecast on Harris-Mann Climatology. Their overview says:

The summer of 2010 is expected to be warmer and drier than normal, especially in the inland areas. The coastal regions should have generally normal temperatures. The fall season is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal with heavier snows likely in the winter of 2010-11.

Their maps show colder temps and above avg precip starting in Dec all the way through June.

THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS!!!

 

[Snodawg]

NOAA

Also looked it up on NOAA. They pretty much say the same thing. Above normal precip with below normal temps. SNOW SNOW SNOW

 

[christopher]

Don't know if any of you have been watching whats going on down south.
But South America is setting records for the COLDEST winter in 50 years.
Argentina and Bolivia are getting POUNDED right now.

 

[drphil]

COLD COLD COLD Does not equal snow! Its a happy medium friends

 

[rmkboxer]

well they didn't get the summer right but el nina hit back in april so if it holds through the winter we should have a epic winter

 

[WAmtnsledr]

well they didn't get the summer right but el nina hit back in april so if it holds through the winter we should have a epic winter

yeah, we only had 3 or 4 100+ degree days in yakima so far, usually every day in the summer is over 100 here haha. but who cares about the summer it's going to be a great winter.

i would rather start riding in december with good snow until june or july than start riding early like this year with not a lot of good snow the whole winter.

 

[suitcase]

Don't know if any of you have been watching whats going on down south.
But South America is setting records for the COLDEST winter in 50 years.
Argentina and Bolivia are getting POUNDED right now.

Load up the sleds!!! Lets gooooo!!!!

 

[Bagger]

Ya'll would laugh if .......

...... you actually saw me doing it, but the snowdance works!!!!!!!!!!!
WOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bag

 

[Lushbomb]

A La Nina is developing as we type. A La Nina pattern supports above normal snowfall for the Cascades. La Nina is the best long term seasonal forecast indicator for fantastic snow in the Cascades. It’s not perfect and not a guarantee. But, in my experience, it’s the only good long range forecast for above normal snow in the Cascades which is reliable for the Pacific Northwest. All La Nina’s are a bit different, but their hallmark is an above normal Cascade snowpack

 

[Snodawg]

El Nino

Typically, the winter following an El Nino winter, is a harsh one.

 

[Lushbomb]

there is no real consistent pattern.. in recent history the winter following an el nino winter is a neutral winter which means the normal. sometimes its another el nino and sometimes its what we love. the La Nina!

if you look at the last 30 yrs you'll see that typically a neutral winter follows an el nino.. and sometimes we get lucky. its really quite random. we've had back to back la nina's too.. i remember those yrs.. 99 to 2001.. epic!! those were also the winters that sparked the the heavy back country exploring restrictions at the baker ski resort because of the avalanche deaths

60 yrs of pattern: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

[White Rad]

From mt baker end of year snow report. biggest base in last 5 yrs at heather meadows this last year so more than the last la nina year everyone thought was so epic. its all about being able to cherry pick the good days and this last year the deep days were fewer and farther between but epic. last good la nina year it seemed there were more med. deep days and just more consistent storms. The big factor is snowpack at lower elevations! as you know this year there was no low elv. base and on la nina year we had a lot more snow down low. bring it on!!


154 days of operation
614 inches of snowfall
21 days with 10 inches or more of new snow
34 days with 6 inches or more of new snow
52 days of sunshine
and even though it was a La Nina year, we still managed to wind up with the highest snowbase at Heather Meadows for the past 5 seasons, with 215 inches at the maximum.

 

[Snodawg]

Lush; thanks for clearing that up.

White Rad; One thing that you forgot to notice and/or mention, most of that snowbase occured very late in the season. Also, the reason there is no snowpack down low during an El Nino year is the warmer temps, during a La Nina year the temps are colder and the precip is greater meaning lots of snow down low in the snowparks.

 

[rmkboxer]

it was in the 30's when I was in mccall in february. it was hot