Headed up this morning and appreciate the warning. We will be honing our flatland skills today.
Thanks,
AJ
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
WA Cascades near and west of crest - north of Stevens Pass
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington
1203 PM PST Thu Feb 04 2010
The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates out of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a variety of federal, state and private cooperators.
Weather Service ID WAZ513-518-519-019-042-501-502-ORZ011
Thursday Friday Saturday
6am-Noon Noon-6pm 6am-Noon Noon-6pm 6am-Noon Noon-6pm
Danger Trend Level Slightly Increasing Slightly Decreasing Slightly Decreasing Slightly Decreasing Slightly Decreasing
7000' 2 2 2 2 2 2
6000' 2 2 2 2 2 2
5000' 2 2 2 2 2 2
4000' 1 1 1 1 1 1
3000' 1 1 1 1 1 1
Notes: This represents a regional scale avalanche forecast for each elevation and time period shown. For complete information see the detailed avalanche forecast.
Jump to Danger Scale Legend at bottom of forecast
Forecast
Thursday: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 and low below. Avalanche danger slightly increasing Thursday night.
Friday: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 and low below slightly decreasing Friday and Friday night.
Outlook to Saturday: Further slightly decreasing avalanche danger.
Snowpack Analysis
Two minor storms so far this month each deposited 2-7” of snow from Mt Rainier south to Mt Hood. Crest level winds at the NWAC weather station at Crystal were moderate southeast to south west and at the Mt Hood Meadows station moderate southwest for these 2 systems.
Little if any snow has bee seen so far in February in the north to central Cascades and Olympics. Temperatures have been fairly mild the past few days.
The most recent significant regional storms were about 24-25 January with about 6-15” of snowfall near and west of the crest and the MLK weekend with about 1-2’ near and west of the crest. Otherwise we have seen periods of little precipitation, mild temperatures and some consolidation since mid January. A warm wet period was seen in mid January which formed crusts which should be the crust nearest the surface in many areas.
But isolated signs of instability and a couple human triggered avalanches have been reported the past couple days. A skier reported a 3-4” ski triggered avalanche on Mt Ruth on Monday via the FOAC Exchange. Shooting cracks were reported on Mt Pugh and a skier triggered slab was reported near the Nisqually on Tuesday via TAY.
It seems that stability is improving for near Washington Pass according to a report for Tuesday via the FOAC Exchange. However the North Cascades Heli guides are still recommending extra caution in that area due to a hoar frost layer that was buried there in mid January.
Detailed Forecasts
Thursday
A front should approach Thursday afternoon. Increasing winds and light snow should spread to the south Cascades by Thursday afternoon. This should not greatly change the snow conditions. The front should move south to north over the Olympics and Cascades Thursday night. This should result in further increasing south to southeast ridge top winds and light to occasional moderate snow. The strongest winds and heaviest snowfall should be seen in the south Cascades. This should lead to some new shallow slab layers on lee north to northeast slopes at higher elevations mainly in that area.
Friday
Decreasing winds and decreasing light snow showers should be seen on Friday. This should allow new potential slab layers to partly stabilize. Lingering slab layers are most likely on lee slopes at higher elevations in the south Cascades. Careful snow pack evaluation and cautious route finding should be most essential in the south Cascades.
Outlook to Saturday
A very weak dissipating front should near the area Saturday. But winds are indicated to remain weak and snowfall is indicated to be light. This should result in a further slightly decreasing avalanche danger.
