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The last winter storm?

donbrown

Well-known member
Lifetime Membership
Today hottest day of the week then cooling off till Tuesday ... then very warm until next storm last days of March. Storm 21-22 March ... 1-2 feet at Mammoth. One foot in town at 7000 feet. Snow amounts highest around Truckee. Snow up in Chester. Dramatically decreasing south of Mammoth. Major warming trend patterns showing up in Northern Hemisphere.


Wednesday, March 18, 2009 9:16:07 AM

A RARE NEW ROUND OF MVP SKI PASSES GO ON SALE THIS APRIL....THIS IS A LIMITED OFFERING....ONCE YOU BUY ONE YOUR IN, AS LONG AS YOU PURCHASE ONE EACH YEAR THERE AFTER.....IF YOU SKI/BOARD MORE THEN A WEEK A YEAR, BUY ONE WHEN THEY OPEN FOR SALE.


"MILD WEATHER MID-WEEK...THEN COLD VIGOROUS STORM SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY......NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY...THEN BIG WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....NEXT POSSIBLE STORM AT MONTHS END"

TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN TOWN.....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE REMAINS OF A STORM COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TO HAWAII LAST WEEK. THE LEADING SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL CA THURSDAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE MAIN BENEFIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TO JUICE UP THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE'S ARRIVAL SATURDAY NIGHT....THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A GOOD SPRING SNOW STORM SUNDAY WITH UP TO A FOOT IN TOWN AND 1.5 TO 2 FEET OVER THE CREST BY SUNDAY NIGHT........THIS MAY BE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA'S LAST GOOD STORM........HOWEVER, RUSTY' MAY KEEP OLD WOOLLY OPEN INTO JUNE THIS YEAR.....SO DON'T EVEN THINK OF PUTTING THEM AWAY JUST YET.

LONGER RANGE:

THE BACK OF THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST...SO EXPECT AT LEAST ONE INSIDE SLIDER TYPE VORT CENTER TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAMMOTH FOR A FEW SHOWERS EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.....TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THEN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK, THE LONG WAVE SHOULD BE EAST ENOUGH FOR THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOT GETTING IT INTO CA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GFS FASTER WITH IT ON THURSDAY. IRRESPECTIVE OF THE TIMING......IT WILL BE WARMER THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LONGEST RANGE:

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY FANTASY RUN THROUGH 384 HRS HAD A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AT THE END OF THE MONTH.....NO TELLING IF THAT WILL WORK OUT OR NOT....BUT THE DWEEBS WILL KEEP A WEARY EYE ;-)

TODAY'S COMMENTS:

IT IS PRETTY OBVIOUS NOW THAT WINTER IS WINDING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE CLASSIC SIGNS ARE THERE.....LOT'S OF LARGE SCALE CUT OFF LOWS FORMING WITH MORE MID LATITUDE BLOCKING IN THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS. C'EST LA VIE!
 
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Storm Still set for snow SAT - Sunday

Quick storm 6-8 hours with snowfall as much as 3-4 inches an hour


Thursday, March 19, 2009 9:10:19 AM

A RARE NEW ROUND OF MVP SKI PASSES GO ON SALE THIS APRIL....THIS IS A LIMITED OFFERING....ONCE YOU BUY ONE YOUR IN, AS LONG AS YOU PURCHASE ONE EACH YEAR THERE AFTER.....IF YOU SKI/BOARD MORE THEN A WEEK A YEAR, BUY ONE WHEN THEY OPEN FOR SALE.


"MILD CLOUDY WEATHER MID-WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE......THEN COLD VIGOROUS STORM SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY......NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...THEN GOOD QUICK WARM UP WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLING THURSDAY/FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY WARM WEEKEND.......NEXT POSSIBLE STORM AT MONTHS END"

UPDATED FOR THURSDAY THE 19TH:

TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...HIGHS IN LOW/MID 50S IN TOWN.....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OLD HAWAIIAN SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. (FREEZING LEVEL WELL ABOUT 10,000 FEET TODAY AND FRIDAY) THIS IS THE REMAINS OF A STORM COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TO HAWAII LAST WEEK. THE LEADING SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL CA TODAY. THE NEW WRF FROM 12Z THIS AM HAD 700MB RH AS HIGH AS 50% LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA AND UP TO 70% RH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED'S ARE FAIRLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS.

AS MENTIONED WEDNESDAY....THE MAIN BENEFIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TO JUICE UP THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT PRIOR TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE'S ARRIVAL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEW THURSDAY 12Z WRF HAS A STRONG VORT CENTER JUST ON-SHORE EAST OF MONTERREY, CA SATURDAY NIGHT AT 11:OOPM (06Z), WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KNOT UPPER JET AT 300MB OVER PASO ROBLES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE EXCELLENT LIFT FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEGINNING ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...AND AS THE MEAT OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY....A PERIOD OF A GOOD 6 HOURS+ OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SIERRA.

MAMMOTH IS IN THE BULLS EYE FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR A GOOD SPRING COLD SNOW STORM WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALLS AT TIMES VERY POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH UP TO A FOOT IN TOWN AND 1.5 TO 2 FEET OVER THE CREST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NWS IS PAINTING A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH FOR SO-CAL.....THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER JET NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE.

LONGER RANGE:

THE BACK OF THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST...SO EXPECT AT LEAST ONE INSIDE SLIDER TYPE VORT CENTER TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.....AT THIS TIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS ARE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THEN MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY MID WEEK, THE LONG WAVE SHOULD BE EAST ENOUGH FOR THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER.....THURSDAY NIGHTS 00Z GFS HAD ANOTHER SLIDER THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WITH THE 06Z MORE CONSISTANT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF ALSO HAD A SLIDER NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE 192 HR CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT. HARD TO DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INSIDE SLIDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SO EXTENDED WARM UP PROBABLY UNLIKELY UNTIL THE WEEKEND OF THE 28TH.

COMMENT: THERE WAS A STRONG SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP NEAR JAPAN ABOUT 140EAST WITH THE LEADING ISOBAR NEAR 150EAST THE MORNING OF THE 28TH. MARK YOUR CALENDER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM ABOUT APRIL FOOLS DAY.....NO FOOLING...RIGHT?
 
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