Storm SUN-MON 22-23 JAN 2012

[donbrown]

NWS predicts 2 feet at 7000 feet around Tahoe by `10 AM Monday 23 January.

/ISSUED 243 PM PST SAT JAN 21 2012/

SHORT TERM...

MOIST WEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING ONE MORE STORM INTO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW 5500-6000 FEET DURING THE EVENT. WINDS
GUSTS TO STAY BELOW 45 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AT 90 MPH OR LESS OVER
THE SIERRA RIDGES. THE STORM DOES HAVE A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP
AND A HIGH PROBABLY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS IN THE
SIERRA. SNOW AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE
EASTERN SIERRA ARE BELOW 40 MPH AND DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS OF
INCREASING DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT. 18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE LIGHTER ON THE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO WILL DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT LAKE TAHOE. SUSTAINED WINDS ON TAHOE
TO REMAIN AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THROUGH 7 PM.

INITIAL SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE SIERRA CREST SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
STORM WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80, AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST, WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF LIQUID AT LAKE LEVEL. WITH SNOW
LEVELS SET TO REMAIN BELOW 5500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
WITH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 2 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET, AND 6-12
INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET.

 

[donbrown]

THIS SEEMS TO BE A CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STORM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND MORE RAIN
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. AFTERWARD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY...DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL THEN BE A POSSIBILITY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE SIERRA
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT EXCEPT IN THE HIGH DESERT.
LOTS OF REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
STORMS TO END BY SUNSET WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. BUT MAY NOT BECOME
PROBLEMATIC AS MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM AN
UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TOWARDS NORTH CAL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL FOLLOW
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST AND PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTH SECTORS
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER
SOUTH AND WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
IN THE SIERRA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY

 

[sks rider]

Any other storms on the horizon for the next few weeks?

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk

 

[donbrown]

Any other storms on the horizon for the next few weeks?

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk

After the storm Monday 23 Jan it will warm up from a high pressure system keeping the jet stream well north of California.

Expect temps on Thurs - SUN to be above freezing at 5000 feet around most of California.

Valley floors from Los Angeles thru Fresno to be in the high 70,s.

 

[donbrown]

SUN-MON storm still on track.

Snow dusting possible to 2500 feet 1-3 inches.

Colder storm than expected 24 hours ago.

Snow accumulation expected at 5500 feet 6-12 inches and 1-2 feet @ 7000 feet by afternon Monday.

From Kern County to Susanville.

Truckee expect TWICE the levels of the rest of California Average.

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth reporting 3 feet at the lodge and 2 feet from Friday

So 3 feet.

 

[donbrown]

mammoth says

The good news today is that according to Ski Patrol at Mammoth MTN, we no longer can be the driest year since 1976 with 90 inches of snow……as our total is now 106.5 for the season.