Storm cycle 5 Mar to 11 MAR

[donbrown]

60% chance Truckee SAT rain 1/2 inch then 1/2 foot of snow daily at 6000 feet Sunday thru Thursday .... over 2 feet snow by Friday 11 March

60% chance Mammoth SAT rain 1/3 inch then 3-5 inches of snow daily at 8000 feet Sunday thru Thursday .... over a foot snow by Friday 11 March

75% then decreasing to 60% chance Etna CA Monday March 1st rain 0.15 to 1/2 inch rain daily at 3000 feet and temps into freezing Friday 4 MAR thru Tues Mar 8 .... over a foot of rain by Thursday 10 March snow flurries at the end.

less than 50% chance Elko NV 5000 feet rain same period above about 1/2 to 1 inch rain.

50% chance 1/4 inch rain Manti UT 5500 feet then 20% thereafter thru 11 MARCH

60% chance Kern - Tulare County SAT 5 Mar rain 1/3 inch then 0.15 to 1/2 inch of rain daily at 3000 feet Sunday thru Thursday .... over a foot rain by Friday 11 March 3000 feet

60% chance rain 1/2 inch total same time period for Los Angeles

 

[donbrown]

Chances of happening went higher.

 

[donbrown]

likelihood went to over 75% (5pm 29 Feb) for Sierras ... water and snow amounts increased

Etna CA 60 to 100 % likelihood % likelihood changes hourly

 

[bryceraisanen]

Any chance of that making it farther inland as in Colorado?

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

 

[donbrown]

Any chance of that making it farther inland as in Colorado?

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

Do you have a zip code or town?

right now northern part of Colorado 6 in to foot snow

 

[donbrown]

Truckee area 6000 feet

4-6 March 60 to 95% chance 1.25 rain then 6 inches snow

7-9 mar mon - wed 20-50% chance 1/2 rain

10 mar 75% chance 6 inches snow

11 march more but not assigned % chance

Kern - Tulare County

5-7 mar sat-mon 95% chance 1 inch rain 70% change 2 inches rain low to freezing high at 40's ele 3000 feet so snowing foot or two 6000-7000 feet

11 march 60% chance 3-6 inches snow 7000 feet

mammoth

4-5 mar 90% chance 1.25 rain 8000 feet

6-7 mar 80% chance 6 inches snow and 60% chance foot now 8k

9-10 mar 60% chance 3 inches to a foot snow ... rain first then snow 8k

 

[bryceraisanen]

Do you have a zip code or town?

right now northern part of Colorado 6 in to foot snow

81602

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

 

[donbrown]

81602

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

at 6000 feet

50% chance 0.28 in rain Sun 6 Mar

45% snow Monday 1-3 inches snow

50% chance rain Sun 12th 0.2 inches rain

https://www.wunderground.com

 

[bholmlate]

60% chance Truckee SAT rain 1/2 inch then 1/2 foot of snow daily at 6000 feet Sunday thru Thursday .... over 2 feet snow by Friday 11 March

Now i can see why the Storm Hype Meter is teetering on catastrophic in the Tahoe area. !/2" of warm rain will wash away 6" of snow very quickly. We need the moisture but saying they will have 2' of snow by the end if it rains every day is crazy. Sounds like it s one of those storms that will raise the level of Lake tahoe by 6" but it will do very little to help our snow pack out which after a dry warm February is now down to 90% of a normal year

 

[donbrown]

Now i can see why the Storm Hype Meter is teetering on catastrophic in the Tahoe area. !/2" of warm rain will wash away 6" of snow very quickly. We need the moisture but saying they will have 2' of snow by the end if it rains every day is crazy. Sounds like it s one of those storms that will raise the level of Lake tahoe by 6" but it will do very little to help our snow pack out which after a dry warm February is now down to 90% of a normal year

over 2 1/2 inches rain at 7000 feet expected Fri Sat for Truckee Tahoe then a foot Snow Sun - Mon

Ride late Tues Wed

rain Thurs 1/2 inch

Snow 6000 feet Fri 11th thru Sun

 

[kylant]

I don’t know where you guys get your info and data, but it generally seems to be very inaccurate.

The forecaster for this area, who is generally quite accurate (by far the most accurate in the area), is predicting through monday the following for the sierras (tahoe area):

East side 8000ft: 30-41”
West side 8000ft: 38-55”
Central 8000ft: 36-46”
Crest 8000ft: 42-59”

I don’t care if is rains at lake level. most of our riding area starts at 7000+ ft. and ends up at 8500ft along the crest. even on the east side, he is predicting 22-31”

just sayin

 

[bholmlate]

weather forecasting is funny everyone is looking at the same data. its all how you interpret it. Everyone has their go-to guy in their area. And the tahoe basin is pretty tricky area to predict This is where the HYPE comes in. My point is that the HYPE surrounding this storm is growing by the second. I am sure there is enough moisture in the storm to produce 5 ft of snow. Will the temps allow it to happen is anyone guess and yes its just a guess.

 

[Jblaze74]

this is what I heard by Monday.... bring it!!!

 

[Jblaze74]

Just started to rain in Reno!!!!

 

[kylant]

weather forecasting is funny everyone is looking at the same data. its all how you interpret it. Everyone has their go-to guy in their area. And the tahoe basin is pretty tricky area to predict This is where the HYPE comes in. My point is that the HYPE surrounding this storm is growing by the second. I am sure there is enough moisture in the storm to produce 5 ft of snow. Will the temps allow it to happen is anyone guess and yes its just a guess.

I agree, when I see it, I believe it.
Bryan is pretty darn accurate though

 

[kylant]

this is what I heard by Monday.... bring it!!!

yep, forcast from Bryan.

it was snowing at Kirkwood when I left at 4:45

 

[donbrown]

Storm prediction still on track.

100% likelihood for this weekend and down to 80% for next weekend.


Estimates for rain amounts increased and snow amount stayed the same.

Snow levels down to 6000 feet tonight or Sunday depending where you are.

Still looks like best riding days after first storm is Tuesday - Wed maybe Monday if there is no more storm.

Again depending where you are 1/2 " to over an inch rain at 6k Thurs Friday 11-12 mar

More snow Fri - SAT 11- 12 MAR

Suppose to be cloudy Sunday 13 MAr

Thank a 3rd storm rolling in On the 14th Monday !

 

[zilla]

Seems like a pretty darn warm air mass so far, here's hoping it gets colder soon to put down some good snow

 

[donbrown]

Seems like a pretty darn warm air mass so far, here's hoping it gets colder soon to put down some good snow

It will get colder and snow ... then in a couple days warm up rain and snow some more ... up to 4 times and drop 5-10 rain in the Sierras and depending a lot of snow

 

[kylant]

6” at the house overnight.
30” reported over last 2 days at the ski resort closest to the riding area (actually between 2 riding areas)