So this storm 3NOV-6NOV is measured in inches cause it is dumping in the ocean.
NEXT possile (but becoming less likely) big storm 8-11 NOV Tues-Fri is uncertain so the weather man wont say. One computer model says we are getting a dumping and another says it will dump in the ocean.
RENO forecaster won't say and HANFORD forecaster says right now predicting this storm won't make it to KINGS CANYON and stay north
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 PM PDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SHORT TERM...
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TODAY AND SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM IS MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND JET DYNAMICS ARE MUCH BETTER FOR GETTING
SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GUSTS IN THE
45-55 MPH RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS GALENA...HITTING CLOSE TO 65
MPH...BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. BLOWING DUST IS BEING REPORTED
AT FALLON NAS...BUT SO FAR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL. WIND STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SPEED OF THE COLD
FRONT...LIKELY BECAUSE THE BACKSIDE JET IS STRONGER AND DIGGING THE
ENTIRE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS CRASHING DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 5PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE QUICKNESS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SIERRA FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...BUT
THERE WILL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
WILL BE LIKELY AT PASS LEVEL.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD OVERALL FOR THE TAHOE
BASIN...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES AROUND THE LAKE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF TAHOE...WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF LASSEN...PLUMAS...AND MONO COUNTIES. SPILLOVER WITH
THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BE MEAGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW TAKING A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND RIDGETOP FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTH THAN WEST.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW FOR THE
RENO-CARSON CITY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8PM-11PM AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
WITH MUCH LESS ON THE VALLEY FLOORS. AREAS NORTH OF RENO TOWARD
SUSANVILLE...GERLACH AND CEDARVILLE COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES THIS
EVENING WITH BETTER SPILLOVER BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM.
AS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...LATEST NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV. THERE IS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IN THE MSLP AND 700MB FIELDS...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT IN AN ALREADY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD REALLY GET THE CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING STRONG EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HAPPEN RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE...BETWEEN 5AM AND
8AM...SO PEOPLE SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR MORNING TRAVEL JUST IN
CASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT IS LOW...WITH THE LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF MESOSCALE BANDS CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM RENO NORTH TO SUSANVILLE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WE
GET A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IT COULD
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT TO THE AREA. ONCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN
THE WEATHER GRAPHIC ON OUR WEATHER.GOV HOMEPAGE AND FACEBOOK PROFILE.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR COLD CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE OVER THE US
WEST COAST BEGINNING ON SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CROSS INTO WRN NV
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF PASSAGE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL MAY PROVIDE AROUND 2+ INCHES IN SOME OF
THE HIGHER SIERRA PEAKS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON WRN NV VALLEYS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED INCREASING
RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA AND PEAKS IN MONO CO DUE TO A 700 MB JET
STREAK MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE SIERRA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW 40S FOR
WRN NV AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SIERRA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS IN THE SIERRA AND LOW 20S OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. FUENTES
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TWO CAMPS EMERGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE
WEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
(THE EC ENSEMBLE NOT AVAILABLE AT WFO LEVEL) AND UKMET WANT TO DROP
ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AHEAD OF THE ENERGY. WITH SUPPORT SPLIT I CANNOT LEAN EITHER
WAY AND WILL HAVE TO REMAIN ON THE FENCE FOR NOW. SORRY I CANNOT DO
BETTER...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CHAOS WILL RULE WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.
AS FAR AS FORECAST IMPACTS...THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WETTER AND CLOUDIER GFS BEING MUCH
WARMER FOR LOWS THAN THE DRY/RIDGY ECMWF. BY THE TIME WE GET TO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS TO THE FORECAST
INCREASE TO BOTH TEMPERATURE (ESPECIALLY LOWS) AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN CWA UNDER DEFORMATION ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE GEFS HEIGHT SPREAD IS HUGE FOR MASSIVE UNCERTAINTY SO
I WOULD NOT BANK ON THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
PUTTING THE LOW OVER 1000 MILES FURTHER WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST GRADIENTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NV. WIDESPREAD SURFACE GUSTS
35-40KT AND SOUTHWEST RIDGE GUSTS 80-90 KTS WILL SUPPORT TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH ATTENTION
THEN TURNING TO PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL ARRIVE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 (INCLUDING KTVL AND KTRK) AROUND 23-00Z...INTO
WESTERN NV (INCLUDING KRNO-KLOL) 01Z-04Z...AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO A
KBIH-KTPH-KWMC LINE BY 08Z-10Z.
KRNO...QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
DIMINISHING BEHIND FRONT. RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S) WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAY.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY/CIGS IN SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A SECOND PERIOD OF -SN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH AIR AND PAVEMENT
TEMPS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUM
(HALF INCH OR LESS) ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
238 PM PDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MUCH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DELIGHTFUL FALL WEATHER IS UPON US THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL COME ALONG AND USHER IN A WINTRY CHANGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRETCHING FROM SPOKANE TO NEAR REDDING THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT IS RATHER LIMITED...IT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS STILL CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES OR SO OFF THE OREGON COAST
AND IT...TOO...WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF CELLULAR LOOKING CUMULUS UNDERNEATH THIS LOW WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MAINLY NORTH OF KINGS CANYON WILL BE IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A 120+ JET AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT
AND GENERATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AS A RESULT...AT LEAST HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
OF KINGS CANYON FOR TONIGHT. (FOR DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
SFOWSWHNX...WWUS46)
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY WILL BE RAIN
SHADOWED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS TURN INTO THE NW.
THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER VERY MUCH AS COLDER AIR
POURS INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. YET...LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SIDE AND
SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING US A BREAK FROM
WET WEATHER SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
WETTER BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND A MODEST WARMING TREND IS SLATED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BEYOND TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE POLARIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
A RETURN OF WET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECM FORECASTS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER
CA WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WE ARE FAVORING THE
MORE RELIABLE ECM SOLN.
NEXT possile (but becoming less likely) big storm 8-11 NOV Tues-Fri is uncertain so the weather man wont say. One computer model says we are getting a dumping and another says it will dump in the ocean.
RENO forecaster won't say and HANFORD forecaster says right now predicting this storm won't make it to KINGS CANYON and stay north
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 PM PDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SHORT TERM...
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TODAY AND SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM IS MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND JET DYNAMICS ARE MUCH BETTER FOR GETTING
SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GUSTS IN THE
45-55 MPH RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS GALENA...HITTING CLOSE TO 65
MPH...BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. BLOWING DUST IS BEING REPORTED
AT FALLON NAS...BUT SO FAR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL. WIND STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SPEED OF THE COLD
FRONT...LIKELY BECAUSE THE BACKSIDE JET IS STRONGER AND DIGGING THE
ENTIRE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS CRASHING DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 5PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE QUICKNESS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SIERRA FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...BUT
THERE WILL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
WILL BE LIKELY AT PASS LEVEL.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD OVERALL FOR THE TAHOE
BASIN...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES AROUND THE LAKE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF TAHOE...WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF LASSEN...PLUMAS...AND MONO COUNTIES. SPILLOVER WITH
THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BE MEAGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW TAKING A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND RIDGETOP FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTH THAN WEST.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW FOR THE
RENO-CARSON CITY AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8PM-11PM AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
WITH MUCH LESS ON THE VALLEY FLOORS. AREAS NORTH OF RENO TOWARD
SUSANVILLE...GERLACH AND CEDARVILLE COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES THIS
EVENING WITH BETTER SPILLOVER BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM.
AS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...LATEST NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV. THERE IS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IN THE MSLP AND 700MB FIELDS...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT IN AN ALREADY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD REALLY GET THE CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING STRONG EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD HAPPEN RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE...BETWEEN 5AM AND
8AM...SO PEOPLE SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR MORNING TRAVEL JUST IN
CASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT IS LOW...WITH THE LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF MESOSCALE BANDS CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM RENO NORTH TO SUSANVILLE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WE
GET A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IT COULD
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT TO THE AREA. ONCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN
THE WEATHER GRAPHIC ON OUR WEATHER.GOV HOMEPAGE AND FACEBOOK PROFILE.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR COLD CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE OVER THE US
WEST COAST BEGINNING ON SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CROSS INTO WRN NV
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF PASSAGE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL MAY PROVIDE AROUND 2+ INCHES IN SOME OF
THE HIGHER SIERRA PEAKS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON WRN NV VALLEYS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED INCREASING
RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA AND PEAKS IN MONO CO DUE TO A 700 MB JET
STREAK MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE SIERRA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW 40S FOR
WRN NV AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SIERRA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS IN THE SIERRA AND LOW 20S OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. FUENTES
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TWO CAMPS EMERGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE
WEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
(THE EC ENSEMBLE NOT AVAILABLE AT WFO LEVEL) AND UKMET WANT TO DROP
ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AHEAD OF THE ENERGY. WITH SUPPORT SPLIT I CANNOT LEAN EITHER
WAY AND WILL HAVE TO REMAIN ON THE FENCE FOR NOW. SORRY I CANNOT DO
BETTER...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CHAOS WILL RULE WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.
AS FAR AS FORECAST IMPACTS...THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WETTER AND CLOUDIER GFS BEING MUCH
WARMER FOR LOWS THAN THE DRY/RIDGY ECMWF. BY THE TIME WE GET TO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS TO THE FORECAST
INCREASE TO BOTH TEMPERATURE (ESPECIALLY LOWS) AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW TO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN CWA UNDER DEFORMATION ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE GEFS HEIGHT SPREAD IS HUGE FOR MASSIVE UNCERTAINTY SO
I WOULD NOT BANK ON THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
PUTTING THE LOW OVER 1000 MILES FURTHER WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST GRADIENTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NV. WIDESPREAD SURFACE GUSTS
35-40KT AND SOUTHWEST RIDGE GUSTS 80-90 KTS WILL SUPPORT TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH ATTENTION
THEN TURNING TO PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL ARRIVE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 (INCLUDING KTVL AND KTRK) AROUND 23-00Z...INTO
WESTERN NV (INCLUDING KRNO-KLOL) 01Z-04Z...AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO A
KBIH-KTPH-KWMC LINE BY 08Z-10Z.
KRNO...QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
DIMINISHING BEHIND FRONT. RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S) WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMULATION ON THE RUNWAY.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY/CIGS IN SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A SECOND PERIOD OF -SN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH AIR AND PAVEMENT
TEMPS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUM
(HALF INCH OR LESS) ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
238 PM PDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MUCH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DELIGHTFUL FALL WEATHER IS UPON US THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL COME ALONG AND USHER IN A WINTRY CHANGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOWS UP QUITE WELL ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRETCHING FROM SPOKANE TO NEAR REDDING THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT IS RATHER LIMITED...IT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS STILL CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES OR SO OFF THE OREGON COAST
AND IT...TOO...WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF CELLULAR LOOKING CUMULUS UNDERNEATH THIS LOW WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MAINLY NORTH OF KINGS CANYON WILL BE IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A 120+ JET AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT
AND GENERATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AS A RESULT...AT LEAST HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH
OF KINGS CANYON FOR TONIGHT. (FOR DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
SFOWSWHNX...WWUS46)
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY WILL BE RAIN
SHADOWED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS TURN INTO THE NW.
THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER VERY MUCH AS COLDER AIR
POURS INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. YET...LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SIDE AND
SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING US A BREAK FROM
WET WEATHER SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
WETTER BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND A MODEST WARMING TREND IS SLATED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BEYOND TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE POLARIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
A RETURN OF WET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECM FORECASTS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER
CA WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WE ARE FAVORING THE
MORE RELIABLE ECM SOLN.
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