Snow possible SUN-MON DEC 11-12
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
FRESNO / Tulare / KERN / LOS ANGELES 9 DEC 8PM Hanford weather forecast
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW INTO KERN
COUNTY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTH.
THIS WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY COLD STORM...BUT SNOW LEVELS COULD
DROP TO THE PASSES IN KERN COUNTY MONDAY. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE HIGH DESERTS DOWN TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW. IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS INTO OR OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE DEPARTING. IF YOU LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF
SEQUOIA PARK OR THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINTER WEATHER WATCHES OR ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. SINCE THIS WILL BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OR DESERTS.
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW INTO KERN
COUNTY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTH.
THIS WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY COLD STORM...BUT SNOW LEVELS COULD
DROP TO THE PASSES IN KERN COUNTY MONDAY. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE HIGH DESERTS DOWN TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW. IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS INTO OR OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE DEPARTING. IF YOU LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF
SEQUOIA PARK OR THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINTER WEATHER WATCHES OR ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. SINCE THIS WILL BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
OR DESERTS.
http://http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=vef
LA at 90%
kern / TULARE 80%
FRESNO at 60%
TAHOE at 30%
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NWS 10AM SAt 10 DEC
THIS LOW WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PARTICULARLY WET SYSTEM...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE WETTER THAN THE GFS...ENTRAINING SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET MONDAY AND PUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BAND UP TO AT LEAST FRESNO COUNTY. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN KERN COUNTY... TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NO
RAIN IN MERCED COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
PASS LEVELS IN KERN COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS IF QPF VALUES ON THE
ECMWF ARE CORRECT...BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY
ENTRAINED.
THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND WETTER WITH
IT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH IT AND
BRINGS LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS ALSO FASTER
BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STORM THUR -SAT 15-17 DEC SLIDING SOUTH AND MAY HAVE NO MOISTURE
LOS ANGELES / KERN EXPECT 1-2 FEET AT 7000 FEET BY 13 DEC
THIS LOW WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PARTICULARLY WET SYSTEM...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE WETTER THAN THE GFS...ENTRAINING SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET MONDAY AND PUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BAND UP TO AT LEAST FRESNO COUNTY. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN KERN COUNTY... TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NO
RAIN IN MERCED COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
PASS LEVELS IN KERN COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS IF QPF VALUES ON THE
ECMWF ARE CORRECT...BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY
ENTRAINED.
THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND WETTER WITH
IT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH IT AND
BRINGS LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS ALSO FASTER
BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STORM THUR -SAT 15-17 DEC SLIDING SOUTH AND MAY HAVE NO MOISTURE
LOS ANGELES / KERN EXPECT 1-2 FEET AT 7000 FEET BY 13 DEC
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Mammoth weather says SAT 10 DEC
Two systems….the Monday 12 DEC system will dig south down the coast and effect Mainly Southern Ca and then the Mts of Arizona.
The second system may surprise us as the EC is a bit wetter then the GFS. That one will be Thursday 15 DEC and would probably give us several inches before the weekend. 2 to 6 inches possibly (just a guess at this time as it dives south over the State). Otherwise nothing much to get too excited about at this time through the end of next week.
Two systems….the Monday 12 DEC system will dig south down the coast and effect Mainly Southern Ca and then the Mts of Arizona.
The second system may surprise us as the EC is a bit wetter then the GFS. That one will be Thursday 15 DEC and would probably give us several inches before the weekend. 2 to 6 inches possibly (just a guess at this time as it dives south over the State). Otherwise nothing much to get too excited about at this time through the end of next week.
FORECAST ON BOTH STORMS ALL OVER THE PLACE
12-13. DEC storm puts it at KERN & LA county with levels 3000-5000 feet and accumulation 2 inches to 18 " at 7000 feet ( denpends where it hits & misses)
Next storm for the Mammoth - Tahoe area and they say it will be measured in inches. 15-17 DEC
12-13. DEC storm puts it at KERN & LA county with levels 3000-5000 feet and accumulation 2 inches to 18 " at 7000 feet ( denpends where it hits & misses)
Next storm for the Mammoth - Tahoe area and they say it will be measured in inches. 15-17 DEC
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