SNOW FORECAST: Make sure you have a good shovel this winter...

[christopher]

Make sure you have a good shovel this winter......especially if you live in Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, British Columbia, the Canadian Prairies, or Labrador!
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La Nina "Favored To Emerge In September-November" & "Persist Through January-March 2025"​

Saturday, Sep 14, 2024 - 02:55 PM
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center wrote on X this past week that the probability of a La Nina weather pattern now stands at 71% and "is expected to persist through January-March 2025," adding, a "La Nina watch remains in effect."



La Nina odds are currently higher, yet CPC expects the weather phenomenon to be "weak."

"A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance," the weather agency wrote in an update.

La Nina patterns occur when sea-surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean cool. The cooler waters push the jet stream northward, allowing more precipitation across the western US. Due to the movement of the jet stream, areas of the southern US record less precipitation than normal during La Nina patterns.

Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand's National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, provided more color about the La Nina weather pattern on X:

The ocean has taken some significant strides toward La Niña thresholds in recent weeks.

Trade winds have been much stronger than normal, causing upwelling of cooler, sub-surface waters.

This year, the sub-surface is quite a reservoir of cooler than average water, primed to be moved toward the surface as wind stresses come and go.

Traditional indices suggest this year's La Niña will be of a weak to moderate variety.

However, alternative approaches like the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) offer a different view. This index, which compares the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific with the rest of the global tropics, is a better indicator of the ENSO-related change of rainfall and thunderstorms patterns, particularly in a warming world.

RONI suggests that a moderate to borderline strong La Niña is possible. In fact, recent values of RONI have dipped to -0.75˚C, in La Niña territory!

On the balance of recent trends and guidance, and considering the increasing frequency of La Niña in recent decades, I continue to think that La Niña 2024-25 has room to develop into a formidable event...

Here are the typical La Nina impacts across the Lower 48:



Meteorologist Noll provided a new update on forecasted snowfall anomalies across the Lower 48.



And this.



In mid-August, the 208th edition of the Farmers' Almanac published the "Wet Winter Whirlwind." It noted, "There will be a lot of precipitation and storms"—all dependent on location."



Meanwhile, in Europe this weekend.



Ahead of winter in the Lower 48 (2023 data via Angi).

La Nina "Favored To Emerge In September-November" & "Persist Through January-March 2025" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[christopher]

Nice to see more and more forecasts calling for a good winter

 

[North Dakota 322]

oh yeah! I'm ready.
got my summer side project sold and a deposit down on a new boost!
last year was fantastic this year will be even better.

 

[christopher]

oh yeah! I'm ready.
got my summer side project sold and a deposit down on a new boost!
last year was fantastic this year will be even better.

its interesting how FEW people look back on last year as being a great riding year.
I also thought it was a pretty good year, but I feel like I am in the tiny minority that had a good year of riding.

 

[Sheetmetalfab]

its interesting how FEW people look back on last year as being a great riding year.
I also thought it was a pretty good year, but I feel like I am in the tiny minority that had a good year of riding.

Yep Alaska qualifies as a tiny minority.

Record breaking year.

 

[Trashy]

its interesting how FEW people look back on last year as being a great riding year.
I also thought it was a pretty good year, but I feel like I am in the tiny minority that had a good year of riding.

I’m gonna hold Ben to it…. I hope he is right.

 

[North Dakota 322]

its interesting how FEW people look back on last year as being a great riding year.
I also thought it was a pretty good year, but I feel like I am in the tiny minority that had a good year of riding.

I would say it was pretty good, I'm terrible at taking pictures while I'm out riding but this was a common scene last year. I didn't mind that people said the snow was bad, more untracked for us.

We went out beginning of February and driving on one of the smaller roads (Kilgore) through Island Park we were dozing snow with the headlights of my f250. (1am roads hadn't been cleared yet)
The next morning was epic!

 

[christopher]

I would say it was pretty good, I'm terrible at taking pictures while I'm out riding but this was a common scene last year. I didn't mind that people said the snow was bad, more untracked for us.

We went out beginning of February and driving on one of the smaller roads (Kilgore) through Island Park we were dozing snow with the headlights of my f250. (1am roads hadn't been cleared yet)
The next morning was epic!

While none of us has as many of those days as we desire, I also had several of them!