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SECOND REVISION OF WINTER FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 14TH
Winter Forecast 2010-2011 
Forecast © Craig McPeck & Snow-Day.org
Hello fellow Snow Day viewer's, the moment you have all been waiting for, Snow Day's issuance of there Winter 2010-2011 Forecast. Before you start reading please re how well I did last winter and how I graded myself. Please click here to read it.
This is the first of three winter forecast's I will issue this fall. The second winter forecast update is on October 16th after another months work of re-evaluating my first winter forecast. The third and last winter forecast update will be issued on November 16th. So enough of all the talk and let's get on with my first winter forecast for the 2010-2011 season!
This is the first of three winter forecast's I will issue this fall. The second winter forecast update is on October 16th after another months work of re-evaluating my first winter forecast. The third and last winter forecast update will be issued on November 16th. So enough of all the talk and let's get on with my first winter forecast for the 2010-2011 season!
Winter Forecast 2010-2011 Temperatures
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Winter-time temperatures will be below average for much of the northern United States, Pacific northwest, a good chunk of the western United States as well as the Great Lakes states and the Northeast. Brutally cold temperatures, perhaps the coldest in the United States will be felt over portions of the Pacific Northwest, extreme northern plains including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota as well as portions of Southern Canada. Severe arctic outbreaks will be quite likely first originating across Alaska, Siberian and western Canada then sliding southeastward first encompassing the Pacific Northwest, portions of the western United States then movineast east northeast across the northern plains, Great Lakes states, and a very small portion of the northeast. In fact, temperature could be so severe they could be smashing records in the far north in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota. In fact, even the Pacific Northwest could go through a few severe arctic outbreaks, nothing like they have seen for many years, even in 2008. A far cry of where they have been last winter where they experienced a relatively mild winter. On the other side of the spectrum, much above average temps and above average temperatures will be felt across the southeastern United States and portions of the Mid Atlantic due to the strong ridge that will be in place throughout portions of the winter. But don't despair! I am expecting at least one major arctic outbreak that couldbe so strong it could penetrate the southeast and middle Atlantic states and some bitter temperatures couldbe felt down in those regions, but by far the coldest regions should remain to the north of the southeast and to the northwest in the middle Atlantic states. If you live anywhere i just mentioned in the below average temps, get those new parka's because it's gonna be a brutal winter!
Winter Forecast 2010-2011 Precipitation
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This winter's preciptation areas will differ greatly from last winter. Last winter there was an extremely strong sub tropical jet, this winter this jetstream will be almost entirely much weaker then last winter, due to the fact that we have an extremely strong La Nina on our hands. This winter the above average precipitation will stretch over the Pacific Northwest due to the strong Pacific Jetstream as well as above average precipitation in portions of the centrak Plains including Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and portions of Minnesota as well as portions of Kansas and Missouri. In fact, the plus side to this occuring is the fact that these area's have had abnormal amounts of precipitation over the summre resulting in high soil moisture content, this is always a very good sign if the soil moisture is wet going into the fall and winter time. The third area expected to receive above average precipitation will be over the upper New England States region. This winter the southeastern ridge will be abnormally strong thus allowing storm system to ride over the ridge and push the more then average precipitation totals further north then last winter over the above explained regions.
Winter Forecast 2010-2011 Snowfall
This winter's snowfall will be a lot different compared to last winter. Last winter featured snow as far south as the Florida Panhandle , but with the very strong La Nina, abnormally strong southeastern ridge and active Pacific Jetstream combined with high moisture content, above average snowfall will be frequent across the northern United States including a few area's that missed out last season. This is including the area's of the Pacific Northwest were strong arctic outbreak's combined with strong storm systems slamming the western United States will interact and create potential for low-land snowfall, potentially significant. Storm systems that ride over the southeastern United States ridge will make above average snow's quite common over portions of the central and northern plains regions including Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, Minnesota, North Dakota. Clipper-like storm systems from Alberta Canada will be quite frequent with producing accumulating snows over the winter, thus adding to the above average snowfall in the northern plains and Great Lake's states. Average snowfall will be felt over portions of the southwestern United States as well a sliver of the Ohio Valley. Below average snowfall will be realized over the southeastern United States and may have to be pushed into the Mid-Atlantic states..
Winter Forecast 2010-2011 Ice Cast
This winter will be a memorable one in terms of ice storm potential over portions of the central Plains, Ohio Valley and Northeastern United States. Due to the abnormally strong ridge of high pressure in the southeast and a very cold air mass to the north in the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest, these two airmasses will clash together and potentially cause powerful destructive ice storms over the above mentioned areas. La Nina's are particulary known for there destructive ice storms, for example during the 2008-2009 winter, Lousville Kentucky had one of the worst Ice Storm's in recorded history. One to two inches of ice fell over much of western and central Kentucky contributing to as much as 700,000 people without power. This year was also a La Nina. Please stock up with supplies such as generators and non parishable food items should a ice storm disaster like this occur.
Storms track's will be quite different compared to last year. While last year a strong sub tropical jet remained most of the year, this year is an extremely strong La Nina, possibly the strongest in some time. An abnormally strong ridge of high pressure could set up over the southeastern United States contributing to storm systems riding up over that ridge. The first storm system is a very widly known storm track, the Alberta Clipper. These will tend to form in Alberta Canada and move southeast through the northern and central Plains then on through the Ohio Valley and Northeast states. These will tend to produce extremely cold air with strong winds as well as modest snowfall accumulations, under 5 inches, but these type of systems have been known to produce more due to the fact that snow can pile up more quickly with colder temperatures. The second storm track will form over the Pacific ocean with the Pacific Jetstream, these storms will ridge southeast and then east and northeast through the northern and central Plains or go on eastward through the Ohio Valley and northeast. These storms tracks will produce above average snowfall from Kansas, Missouri, Northern Kentucky, Illinois, and the Great Lakes states on northward as well as the Pacific Northwest. In fact, a couple strong block buster storms are not out of the question in the central Plains and Great Lakes states with blizzard like conditions. While not out of the question, there could be one up the coast of the eastern United States either on shore or just offshore, i do isee at least one or two nor easters despite this winter not favoring the Mid Atlantic states.
