small storm 5-7 MAR up to 60% chance
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Cold And Blustary Today With Light Snow……Chilly Weather to Last Another Day Wednesday Then Warmer Through Friday…..Retrogression of Long Wave Early Next Week…..
Tuesday March 6, 2012
Posted at 9:22 am by Howard
.It is a vigorous little system that is into the high county at the moment. Too bad it does not have more over water trajectory….The WX front is into Mono county at the moment….with the key vort center over the central valley indicated by both rotation along the NE quad and darkening of the Water Vapor Loop in that area.
Looking at the Tuesday 12Z WRF…..Mammoth is feeling the effects of the Rear Rt entry region of the upper jet with a moderate PG from WSW to ENE. limited over water trajectory of the upper jet and moisture will account for light amounts of snowfall.
The system has a pretty cold 500-1000mb thickness pool over Oregon of 516DM. The Thickness pool will head SSE down through Western NV over the next 24 hours with the 522DM contour near Mammoth at 09z Wednesday. With winds aloft and surface gradients tight/strong….this should make for a very windy afternoon and night from the Owens Valley then south and south east to Vegas. Today is not the day for a drive from Mammoth to Vegas with a trailer! High Wind Warnings are hoisted beginning at 10:00am for the Owens valley today and through 4:00am Wednesday morning.
Snow will be in the 1 to 3 inches range through tonight for Mammoth Lakes. By morning, the upper jet will be NE/SW orientated, so winds over the top of the sierra will gust in excess of 100mph from the NE, while the lower elevations are just breezy. Temps will peak in the low 30s the next two days. Over night lows early Wednesday Am are expected in the single digits and low teens….
The next weather maker will be another upper ridge with fair weather returning with a rapid warm up expected Thursday into Friday. Thereafter…..a fair but partly cloudy weekend is expected with highs in the upper 40 and low 50s @ 7000feet
Longer Range:
Retrogression is expected in the long wave pattern next week with a long wave trof setting up off the west coast. The ECMWF is wet for California. The GFS keeps Mammoth to the south of the significant precip. So the EC is deeper and the GFS shallower with the location of the Magic 500mb 564DM heights in the mean….
The way the winter has gone so far…..one would tend to be pessimistic and lean toward the GFS as it is drier. Expect an update on all this by the weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………
Tuesday March 6, 2012
Posted at 9:22 am by Howard
.It is a vigorous little system that is into the high county at the moment. Too bad it does not have more over water trajectory….The WX front is into Mono county at the moment….with the key vort center over the central valley indicated by both rotation along the NE quad and darkening of the Water Vapor Loop in that area.
Looking at the Tuesday 12Z WRF…..Mammoth is feeling the effects of the Rear Rt entry region of the upper jet with a moderate PG from WSW to ENE. limited over water trajectory of the upper jet and moisture will account for light amounts of snowfall.
The system has a pretty cold 500-1000mb thickness pool over Oregon of 516DM. The Thickness pool will head SSE down through Western NV over the next 24 hours with the 522DM contour near Mammoth at 09z Wednesday. With winds aloft and surface gradients tight/strong….this should make for a very windy afternoon and night from the Owens Valley then south and south east to Vegas. Today is not the day for a drive from Mammoth to Vegas with a trailer! High Wind Warnings are hoisted beginning at 10:00am for the Owens valley today and through 4:00am Wednesday morning.
Snow will be in the 1 to 3 inches range through tonight for Mammoth Lakes. By morning, the upper jet will be NE/SW orientated, so winds over the top of the sierra will gust in excess of 100mph from the NE, while the lower elevations are just breezy. Temps will peak in the low 30s the next two days. Over night lows early Wednesday Am are expected in the single digits and low teens….
The next weather maker will be another upper ridge with fair weather returning with a rapid warm up expected Thursday into Friday. Thereafter…..a fair but partly cloudy weekend is expected with highs in the upper 40 and low 50s @ 7000feet
Longer Range:
Retrogression is expected in the long wave pattern next week with a long wave trof setting up off the west coast. The ECMWF is wet for California. The GFS keeps Mammoth to the south of the significant precip. So the EC is deeper and the GFS shallower with the location of the Magic 500mb 564DM heights in the mean….
The way the winter has gone so far…..one would tend to be pessimistic and lean toward the GFS as it is drier. Expect an update on all this by the weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………
Past storm left 4 to 6 inches of Very Light Dry Powder….Now Moving Slowly Out of the Region…..Warmer Days Ahead!!
Wednesday March 7, 2012
Posted at 8:45 am by Howard
.It is a cold morning in Mammoth. 5 degrees at the village. Highs today will struggle to get up to freezing. The exiting weather system is still kicking up some wind over the crest with a NE/SW orientated upper jet. Clearing skies are expected this morning as the Blue Birds return…..
Fair Weather with warming temps are expected through Friday with highs well into the 50s by then……
The weekend will be a mixed bag with partly cloudy skies Saturday, with a bit cooler temps. Then a slight chance of snow showers Sunday into Tuesday…..11-13 MAR
As the eastern pacific high continues its retrogression west of Hawaii…..and then amplifies….stormy weather will be more in the offering late next week.
More information later as confidence increases……………………
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..
Wednesday March 7, 2012
Posted at 8:45 am by Howard
.It is a cold morning in Mammoth. 5 degrees at the village. Highs today will struggle to get up to freezing. The exiting weather system is still kicking up some wind over the crest with a NE/SW orientated upper jet. Clearing skies are expected this morning as the Blue Birds return…..
Fair Weather with warming temps are expected through Friday with highs well into the 50s by then……
The weekend will be a mixed bag with partly cloudy skies Saturday, with a bit cooler temps. Then a slight chance of snow showers Sunday into Tuesday…..11-13 MAR
As the eastern pacific high continues its retrogression west of Hawaii…..and then amplifies….stormy weather will be more in the offering late next week.
More information later as confidence increases……………………
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..
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