Several small snow storms next 7 days

[donbrown]

First storm Tuesday 1 Nov .. a dusting

Biggest storm Thurs day - Friday 3-4 Nov up to a foot at peaks around Tahoe with under 6 inches at Mammoth Winds at crest expected to gust to 100MPH.

Levels around 6000 feet around Donner down to 3500-4000 feet for Kings / Tulare Fresno

Stay cold from 3 Nov Thursday to another larger storm Tuesday 8 NOV.

Right now not much snow about 6-18 inches after all done BY 7 NOV at the peaks. Very fast storms.
TUESDAY 8 NOV STORM SEEMS LARGE BUT WEAKENING

 

[donbrown]

RENO - TAHOE

REGARDING PRECIP...THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THAT SAID...WITH
SUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BELIEVE THE NAM DEPICTION IS STILL
TOO DRY AND PREFER THE GFS/EC IDEAS. THEY ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY
ALL ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE SREF. MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO FALL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
AND UP TO 6 HRS FOLLOWING PASSAGE. LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY
OVERALL...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA WITH POSSIBLY
UP TO A FOOT ALONG THE CREST. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT
SOME SPILLOVER INTO WRN NV WITH UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH
FRONTAL TIMING...THIS COULD CREATE SOME ISSUES FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE AROUND RENO- TAHOE. SNOW SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM STICKING
AFTER THE FIRST 20 MINUTES OR SO WITH THE VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 4-7 NOV
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. MAIN CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDE LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND RAISING POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN.

MAIN COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF AREA AT START OF PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CA-NV DURING THE DAY. 500MB TEMPS AROUND -33C AND
ASSOCIATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ABRUPT WARMING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON...ENDING
ALL AREAS IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AN INCH OR TWO WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER.

AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON BACK
SIDE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH 120+KT JET LOCATED ALONG THE PACNW
COAST SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE NOW SHOWN SEVERAL NIGHTS OF CONTINUITY
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR 0.05 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND AREAS NORTH
OF I-80 SAT NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BY SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS QPF BAND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SIERRA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR EXCEPT IT TAPERS QPF. THE GEM IS A BIT
FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP BEST CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE
CREST. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD AS
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO AREA AROUND TUE ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD IS HIGHER. SO
THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON ALTHOUGH IT IS GOING TO REMAIN QUITE COLD. HOHMANN

 

[donbrown]

Kettleman -Tehachapi

THIS FIRST TROUGH 1 NOV WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES AND WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN...A COLD
AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE KERN
COUNTY DESERTS WEDNESDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...THE FLOW WILL TURN BRIEFLY
OFFSHORE. THIS COULD WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
AT BAKERSFIELD IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE SECOND...3-4 NOV AND MUCH STRONGER...TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WEDNESDAY...THEN DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY 3NOV. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SHARP
COOLING TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO FALLING 10-12 C IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...BOTH MODELS
FORECAST 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO TO FALL BELOW 0 C BELOW 32f IN FRESNO BY 12Z MIDNIGHT


/0500 PDT/ FRIDAY MORNING 4 NOV . THIS WOULD DROP THE SNOW LEVEL TO AROUND
4000-4500 FEET NEAR KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARK...AND EVEN LOWER AT
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH DOWN TO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z GFS QPF AT YOSEMITE 4 NOV FROM THIS SYSTEM IS 0.45 INCH...UP TO 6 INCHES SNOW
0.20 INCH AT FRESNO 3 INCHES SNOW AND 0.04 INCH DUSTING AROUND ISABELLA AT BAKERSFIELD. IT MUST BE NOTED
THAT THESE VALUES ARE PRELIMINARY,,,AND THE PACIFIC SATELLITE MOSAIC


SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL HAWAII MOISTURE FEEDING OUR AREA ... PINEAPPLE EXPRESS

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO
AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE NEXT TROUGH REACHES CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE
GFS...OR EVEN THE 12Z ECMWF RUN. TO ALLOW FOR THESE DIFFERENCES...
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AS FAR SOUTH AS SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN

FORECASTING A LARGER SIGNIFICANT FOURTH COLD TROUGH TO REACH CALIFORNIA
NEXT TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER BUT FORECAST WEAKENS AS TIME GOES BY

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENED WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

 

[donbrown]

 

[R J snow]

Thanks for the info. Don

 

[donbrown]

Thanks for the info. Don

You are welcome ... something to do while the shoulder heals

 

[donbrown]

NEVADA


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=lknNEVADA

 

[donbrown]

Only changes are more wind. Snow levels still 18 inches max with most predictions being very cold with a few inches.

Storm for 8-10 November is moving NORTH. Tulare/Fresno and south to get nothing and forecasters unsure whether it will dip to Mammoth, Tahoe, or Susanville area.