Monday, November 02, 2009 9:09:45 AM
THE DWEEBS LOVE PST AS MANY OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE EITHER FINISHED OR PARTIALLY FINISHED BY 8:15AM!
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW....AS 500MB HEIGHTS OVER MAMMOTH FLIRT WITH 588DM!
THIS WEEKS WEATHER IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A MEGA RIDGE AT THE DATELINE (600DM) AND ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE 60 DEGREES DOWN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA WITH CURRENT 500MB HEIGHTS OF 588DM.
IN BETWEEN, THERE IS A SPLIT JET WITH A SMALL SYSTEM ABOUT 42 NORTH, NORTH OF HAWAII.
THE NEXT POWERHOUSE RIDING ON THE NOSE OF A 200KNOT+ JET IS CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH-UP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO ITS SOUTH......PRETTY MUCH ZAPPING THE REST OF THE COLD AIR FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH BREEZY WX AND COOLER TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.
"IN PART" THE MJO IS IN PHASE SPACE I IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND "MAY BE" (WITHOUT A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF THE GWO) "CONTRIBUTING" TO THE POSITION OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALONG THE THE DATELINE. SEE:http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html.
BASED ON THE STATISTICAL FORECAST..... http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/fcsts/pd.MW05.Last.gif
WE MAY NOT "SEE" A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT THE 15TH. "RETROGRESSION"
IT IS INTERESTING TO COMPARE THE TWO ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF THE PNA BETWEEN ESRL/ESD AND NCEP SEE: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png
SENSIBLE WEATHER......VERY WARM 1ST HALF OF THIS WEEK AS COMPARED TO CLIMO...THEN SLOW COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MORE LATER
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...................
THE DWEEBS LOVE PST AS MANY OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE EITHER FINISHED OR PARTIALLY FINISHED BY 8:15AM!
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW....AS 500MB HEIGHTS OVER MAMMOTH FLIRT WITH 588DM!
THIS WEEKS WEATHER IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A MEGA RIDGE AT THE DATELINE (600DM) AND ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE 60 DEGREES DOWN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA WITH CURRENT 500MB HEIGHTS OF 588DM.
IN BETWEEN, THERE IS A SPLIT JET WITH A SMALL SYSTEM ABOUT 42 NORTH, NORTH OF HAWAII.
THE NEXT POWERHOUSE RIDING ON THE NOSE OF A 200KNOT+ JET IS CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH-UP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO ITS SOUTH......PRETTY MUCH ZAPPING THE REST OF THE COLD AIR FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH BREEZY WX AND COOLER TEMPS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.
"IN PART" THE MJO IS IN PHASE SPACE I IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND "MAY BE" (WITHOUT A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF THE GWO) "CONTRIBUTING" TO THE POSITION OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALONG THE THE DATELINE. SEE:http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html.
BASED ON THE STATISTICAL FORECAST..... http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/fcsts/pd.MW05.Last.gif
WE MAY NOT "SEE" A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT THE 15TH. "RETROGRESSION"
IT IS INTERESTING TO COMPARE THE TWO ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF THE PNA BETWEEN ESRL/ESD AND NCEP SEE: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png
SENSIBLE WEATHER......VERY WARM 1ST HALF OF THIS WEEK AS COMPARED TO CLIMO...THEN SLOW COOLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MORE LATER
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...................
