Possible hope for a storm mid January

[donbrown]

Clear Sailing through New Years Day…..then cooler possibly windy weather Thursday and Friday with a slight chance of showers Friday night and Saturday next week…….


Sunday December 29, 2013


Posted at 1:39 pm by Howard
.

Sunday PM

Both 12Z and 18Z GFS and ECMWF are very different in their extended runs as I indicated that they would be in the coming week. Their differences are even greater beyond the 7 to 10 days period. Sensibly, it is noted that our current upper ridge will weaken later this new week and give way to either a NW slider or an inside slider. The main differences will be mostly in the amount of wind we will get and the amount of cooling. For the most part, both models continue the dry weather pattern with no relief in sight next week. Expect a chance of showers Friday night/Saturday……That will be it.

The only optimistic part of the long range is in what we call fantasy land or week 2. It is good that the GFS is in disagreement with the EC and GEM. This is the period of time of most interest….. The fact that they are different is cause for the thought that something is going on that the dry computer models are not seeing the weather pattern correctly. More over, all these models at the least have some of their ensemble members showing undercutting. The MJO although weak is moving through the phases. Currently in Phase 5/6. (AAM is on the increase)



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/2013/12/2...-and-saturday-next-week/#sthash.bnjMC5CF.dpuf

 

[kevinm7]

Our local forecast for Elko/Spring Creek area says snow Saturday... I'm keeping my fingers crossed

 

[donbrown]

Our local forecast for Elko/Spring Creek area says snow Saturday... I'm keeping my fingers crossed

Yes there is a chance for a storm this weekend. The question is how much snow? For Mammoth they predict under 6 inches snow 2-4 Jan 2014

 

[zilla]

Yes there is a chance for a storm this weekend. The question is how much snow? For Mammoth they predict under 6 inches snow 2-4 Jan 2014

Heard something about Jan. 9th also.

 

[Tahoepow]

Its bad real bad when the NOAA discussion is making fun of the stagnant weather pattern we have in the Tahoe area. And with really no sign for big snow in the near future or the next 15 days.... We are not alone, the whole west coast is in this pattern. I looked at Crater Lake, Or which is a huge snow magnet. 600 annual inches on average huge. They have about 30" on the season. That's jaw dropping. Mt Baker has a 60 inch base slightly more respectable, but thats a micro climate that gets big snow. Surrounding areas prob dont have 1/2 the snow.
With this high pressure ridge locked in and Jan. being a suck month usually anyway. I'm stuck. Thinking about a road trip in a few weeks somewhere if a location within a days drive gets a good base and some fresh snow. Please old man winter come back!

 

[byeatts]

Its bad real bad when the NOAA discussion is making fun of the stagnant weather pattern we have in the Tahoe area. And with really no sign for big snow in the near future or the next 15 days.... We are not alone, the whole west coast is in this pattern. I looked at Crater Lake, Or which is a huge snow magnet. 600 annual inches on average huge. They have about 30" on the season. That's jaw dropping. Mt Baker has a 60 inch base slightly more respectable, but thats a micro climate that gets big snow. Surrounding areas prob dont have 1/2 the snow.
With this high pressure ridge locked in and Jan. being a suck month usually anyway. I'm stuck. Thinking about a road trip in a few weeks somewhere if a location within a days drive gets a good base and some fresh snow. Please old man winter come back!

The guys a Baker are not riding now, they are waiting as well. Baker typically never has a shortage of Sno,, ugg.. Can you say HAARP. they are manipulating this pattern.

 

[pigbristles]

Its bad real bad when the NOAA discussion is making fun of the stagnant weather pattern we have in the Tahoe area. And with really no sign for big snow in the near future or the next 15 days.... We are not alone, the whole west coast is in this pattern. I looked at Crater Lake, Or which is a huge snow magnet. 600 annual inches on average huge. They have about 30" on the season. That's jaw dropping. Mt Baker has a 60 inch base slightly more respectable, but thats a micro climate that gets big snow. Surrounding areas prob dont have 1/2 the snow.
With this high pressure ridge locked in and Jan. being a suck month usually anyway. I'm stuck. Thinking about a road trip in a few weeks somewhere if a location within a days drive gets a good base and some fresh snow. Please old man winter come back!

I have a back country cabin just east of Crater Lake. Even in bad snow years I am snowmobiling in this time of the year. Last weekend I drove my pickup to it in 2x4. Looking bad. Jim

 

[donbrown]

MAYBE MAYBE a FOOT 7-9 JANUARY

Persistance in the Current WX pattern to Continue Through the End of this Week…………Some Changes in Store Next Week……………


Thursday January 2, 2014


Posted at 9:44 am by Howard
.

Taking a look at the new 12z Thursday GFS deterministic model, and last nights EC, there is a chance of a small storm sneaking in here about the 9th. Here is what the Dweebs are looking at. 1st of all I will preface this by saying that for sometime now the CFC has had something getting in here about the middle of January. I know that is the pretty amorphous, however, there are some changes down stream that may allow some energy upstream to get in here for some light snowfall later next week.

From what I can see, in the coming days….the big polar vortex over Canada that will put the big freeze to the northern mid west, and then eastward will be shifting out over the Atlantic early next week. The key here is that it opens up a big wave length between the vortex (PV) and the west coast ridge. Even through this ridge is still very much alive and well in the eastern pacific, it gets weakened. Weakened enough to allow some short wave action into the west coast about the 7th and 9th of January. The ECMWF has a few systems coming in from the northwest that would bring us some light snowfall. And yes, they may be inside sliders. However, they may not be as well. This mornings 12z deterministic GFS run actually splits the ridge with a short wave coming toward the central west coast Thursday then moving SE making landfall near San Diego. Because of the distance in time, there will be other solutions to this particular short wave…the wave of Thursday January 9th.

If this wave spins up and moves into Southern Ca, we may get some upslope/wrap around. However, the main message here is that this is the classic system that will affect parts of California in a drought pattern, giving coastal sections of Ca some light precip. If by some remote chance the system split out to sea further north….Central California would do better and we might get lucky with a foot. At this time…..It is too far out for any confident forecast to determine what track it will finally take.

What I like about the change in the pattern is that an excessive wave length is finally forecasted to occur next week. I like to give credit to some of my mentors when due…..So Tom C…thanks for the memories…….



The Dweeber…………………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.wGT5Y4QL.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

Snow expected to start at 7000 feet for 8-10 JAN storm

 

[byeatts]

Snow expected to start at 7000 feet for 8-10 JAN storm

If Ewe dont get this one right I will have you removed from sno west!

 

[donbrown]

If Ewe dont get this one right I will have you removed from sno west!

Wow that will save me many hours a week combing thru weather reports !

 

[Tahoepow]

Wow that will save me many hours a week combing thru weather reports !

All you do is copy and paste Howard's posts. That takes hours to do?

 

[byeatts]

Wow that will save me many hours a week combing thru weather reports !

I,m gona get Obama,s weather report, Seems just as accurate ,,,,lol

 

[WILLIS]

All you do is copy and paste Howard's posts. That takes hours to do?

Classic..... I' have been waiting so long for someone to say that!!!

 

[donbrown]

All you do is copy and paste Howard's posts. That takes hours to do?

I actually read it to !

I occasionally edit Howard's post and add information

plus look at snow forecasts for Shasta, McCall, West Yellowstone, Cody, Seely Lake, Farminton, Ely, Pahrump, SLC, St George, Olivehurst, Susanville, Tahoe, Boreal , USMC mountain warfare facility, Shasta, Huntington, Edison, Mammoth, Bishop, Black Rock, Pinehurst, Kernville, lake Isabella, Tehachapi, Frazier Park, Big Bear and Ventura

and look for some white stuff both by satellite , posting and webcams.

Plus look at how many ski lifts are running for who has to make snow.

But hey whats does it matter cause THERE IS NO SNOW !!!!

 

[byeatts]

I actually read it to !

I occasionally edit Howard's post and add information

plus look at snow forecasts for Shasta, McCall, West Yellowstone, Cody, Seely Lake, Farminton, Ely, Pahrump, SLC, St George, Olivehurst, Susanville, Tahoe, Boreal , USMC mountain warfare facility, Shasta, Huntington, Edison, Mammoth, Bishop, Black Rock, Pinehurst, Kernville, lake Isabella, Tehachapi, Frazier Park, Big Bear and Ventura

and look for some white stuff both by satellite , posting and webcams.

Plus look at how many ski lifts are running for who has to make snow.

But hey whats does it matter cause THERE IS NO SNOW !!!!

We appreciate what you do, Just dont like the way your doing it!

 

[donbrown]

We appreciate what you do, Just dont like the way your doing it!

I think WE ALL would like it if we were ridin instead of readin when it might be snowin

 

[Tahoepow]

I know its a long shot but these colors are nice to see in the longer range forecast. The jet seems like it kicked into gear for the PNW. When will it be our turn??
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

 

[Thundy]

I know its a long shot but these colors are nice to see in the longer range forecast. The jet seems like it kicked into gear for the PNW. When will it be our turn??
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

Was that updated this morning? If so I hope it holds true...the western us needs the pineapple express to roll

 

[kevinm7]

We have been getting snow since about 2 this morning and it's supposed to go most of the day... Hopefully we get some actual measurable snowfall