Oh No another MAJOR storm front
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
Mammoth Mt Storm Total 2 to 3 feet……For a two storm series total of 3 to 4 Feet…..Upper Low is Filling and will be out of Central Ca by this Evening…..
Saturday March 1, 2014
Posted at 8:00 am by Howard
.
Upper trof is now moving on shore over LA and taking the remains of the moistures with it. Lots of showers and thunderstorms in the LA area with a few real boomers!. With the upper blocking high exiting Alaska to Siberia, a flip in both the WPO and EPO will allow long wave trofing to reemerge between the Hawaiian islands and the Dateline. This teleconnects well with long wave ridging over the west coast and an upper jet displaced far to the north of us. This is the trend over the next 7 days. Initially the upper ridge will be dirty and so lots of high clouds over running the ridge, on and off next week. Possibly some showers later in the week around Wednesday or Thursday. The snow level will be high above 9K.
Of interest. Tropical Storm FAXIE has sustained winds of 50 knots. It is located at 149East and 10 North, moving North It will intensify the next 3 day and become a major Typhoon. Its moisture will eventually become entrained in the westerly’s. The far pacific NW and especially the BC coast is going to get a lots of rain from the short waves tapping that moisture source later next week For California, we are out of it as the upper ridge get strongly established by weeks end.
More food for thought:
Tropical storm FAXIE is developing because of an intensifying MJO between phases 7 and 8. (Western Pacific) The dynamic model forecasts the MJO to progress through phases 8, 1 and 2. however in the meantime the GFS and EC keep the MJO strong in phase late 7 and 8. Of note, there is the possibility of the reemergence of a southerly displaced EAJ with another Southern or Central CA weather event similar to the one just passing by mid March. The ECMWF is hinting at that now.
For the more advanced Dweebs…..Here are some composites correlating the MJO with its phase space, the month of year and the height field of what you might expect. (GOOD STUFF!) SEE: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.gXig1Sv0.dpuf
Saturday March 1, 2014
Posted at 8:00 am by Howard
.
Upper trof is now moving on shore over LA and taking the remains of the moistures with it. Lots of showers and thunderstorms in the LA area with a few real boomers!. With the upper blocking high exiting Alaska to Siberia, a flip in both the WPO and EPO will allow long wave trofing to reemerge between the Hawaiian islands and the Dateline. This teleconnects well with long wave ridging over the west coast and an upper jet displaced far to the north of us. This is the trend over the next 7 days. Initially the upper ridge will be dirty and so lots of high clouds over running the ridge, on and off next week. Possibly some showers later in the week around Wednesday or Thursday. The snow level will be high above 9K.
Of interest. Tropical Storm FAXIE has sustained winds of 50 knots. It is located at 149East and 10 North, moving North It will intensify the next 3 day and become a major Typhoon. Its moisture will eventually become entrained in the westerly’s. The far pacific NW and especially the BC coast is going to get a lots of rain from the short waves tapping that moisture source later next week For California, we are out of it as the upper ridge get strongly established by weeks end.
More food for thought:
Tropical storm FAXIE is developing because of an intensifying MJO between phases 7 and 8. (Western Pacific) The dynamic model forecasts the MJO to progress through phases 8, 1 and 2. however in the meantime the GFS and EC keep the MJO strong in phase late 7 and 8. Of note, there is the possibility of the reemergence of a southerly displaced EAJ with another Southern or Central CA weather event similar to the one just passing by mid March. The ECMWF is hinting at that now.
For the more advanced Dweebs…..Here are some composites correlating the MJO with its phase space, the month of year and the height field of what you might expect. (GOOD STUFF!) SEE: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.gXig1Sv0.dpuf
Bummer, Id like a visit from Faxie she sounds like my kind of girl..
Btw Im offended by the lack of snow in your forecast..how could you!
Btw Im offended by the lack of snow in your forecast..how could you!
Bummer, Id like a visit from Faxie she sounds like my kind of girl..
Btw Im offended by the lack of snow in your forecast..how could you!
I know how you feel ... these 400 mile trips to the Sierras to do a 40 mile trail ride is getting to be an invitation for another out of state road trip.
On the good side radar shows lots of snowing around Tahoe LTS Monday night 7PM PST 3 MAR.
Snow storm 6 March Mammoth and north ...
Few inches in Mammoth more as you go north.
Transitionary pattern over the pacific will initiate slow height rises over the West Coast next 12 days…..Another two unsettled periods of Central Ca This week then Dry Next Week
Tuesday March 4, 2014
Posted at 8:01 am by Howard
.
The current blocking high latitude upper high over Eastern Siberia will continue to shift west then weaken over the next 10 to 12 day….This according to the ECMWF 5 day means. Through this transition, a long wave trof slowly deepens between the Hawaiian islands and the dateline, with significant height rises occurring over the west coast.
The warm air advection pattern now occurring over Central and Northern California will gradually come to an end next week. There apparently will be two more systems to effect the Central Sierra including Mammoth Lakes. The one short wave coming in Thursday Am and the other, the very end of this week Sunday. Both have the capability of producing a few inches of wet snowfall, especially the one for Thursday. That system may give the higher elevations of Mammoth Mtn 2 to 4 inches. These are warm pushes of moisture over the Sierra in this location with high snow levels, generally above 9,000 to 8,000 feet.
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.WpVLAxiz.dpuf
Few inches in Mammoth more as you go north.
Transitionary pattern over the pacific will initiate slow height rises over the West Coast next 12 days…..Another two unsettled periods of Central Ca This week then Dry Next Week
Tuesday March 4, 2014
Posted at 8:01 am by Howard
.
The current blocking high latitude upper high over Eastern Siberia will continue to shift west then weaken over the next 10 to 12 day….This according to the ECMWF 5 day means. Through this transition, a long wave trof slowly deepens between the Hawaiian islands and the dateline, with significant height rises occurring over the west coast.
The warm air advection pattern now occurring over Central and Northern California will gradually come to an end next week. There apparently will be two more systems to effect the Central Sierra including Mammoth Lakes. The one short wave coming in Thursday Am and the other, the very end of this week Sunday. Both have the capability of producing a few inches of wet snowfall, especially the one for Thursday. That system may give the higher elevations of Mammoth Mtn 2 to 4 inches. These are warm pushes of moisture over the Sierra in this location with high snow levels, generally above 9,000 to 8,000 feet.
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.WpVLAxiz.dpuf
Storm fest north 5-12 March
Northern Idaho to get 5 inches water ... 4-5 feet snow
Northern California to get 6 plus inches water
Seattle area 8 to 12 inches water
West Yellowstone about 2 feet snow
SLC 1.5 feet snow in the mountains
Co mountains around 2 feet
Please check local forecasters to see what level snow starts
Northern Idaho to get 5 inches water ... 4-5 feet snow
Northern California to get 6 plus inches water
Seattle area 8 to 12 inches water
West Yellowstone about 2 feet snow
SLC 1.5 feet snow in the mountains
Co mountains around 2 feet
Please check local forecasters to see what level snow starts
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Two high pressure systems one at NOR CAL NEV OR border and another in the ocean off Santa Barbara will bring warm temps and little moisture
A low pressure system is drawing moisture up north into BC Northern parts of OR (most of WA) north ID & north MT
A low pressure system is drawing moisture up north into BC Northern parts of OR (most of WA) north ID & north MT
S
snengineer
Well-known member
Any updates? long range is looking better and better what are you seeing on your end?
Nothing out there for a while for California
Bigger problem is spring is here ... winter ended March first!
Break out the bikes !
Mammoth Lakes saying 1 to 1.25 water late next week ... 26 -28 March not saying anything about snow levels.
April for Mammoth is predicted for one inch of H2O for the entire month.
BUT with how the storms have fizzled away at the last days of it actually happening I am not sure if it really gonna happen until a few days to see the storm actually materialize.
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I received several great messages from people here about my postings
... Thank you.
So I surfed and checked out more discussions ... too find something positive.
mammothweather.com posted a link
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co...-el-nino-be-forming.html#sthash.Q6Csxpcm.dpuf
The discussion is lengthy and as exciting as reading about a delayed neutron precursor from xenon & cesium daughters of a fissle material in a nuclear decay cycle.
EL NINO is very possible for the 2014 - 2015 season
April water estimates increased from 1 inch to 4-6 inches for Mammoth
Major part of storm possible (with greater 50% likelihood ) to start Wednesday 26 march end 27 march thurs Then another storm to hit California last couple days of march 30th 31st.
major dumping of WATER starting northern tip of California well into BC .
8 plus inches of water expected shoreline OR/CA border and at least half all the way into BC
mammoth expecting flurries all week with a foot or two at the lodge (9500 plus feet) by 2 April
Tahoe area to get at least a foot by 28 March ... One report estimates 4 inches water around Tahoe by 2 APRIL
SLC inch water
CO a 1.5 inches water
West Yellowstone 2.5 inches water
ID sawtooth 3.5 in H2O
McCall 3.5 in H2O
Whistler 3.5 in H2O
Seattle area 6.5 to 8.0 in H20
Please check temps to see where the snow line starts
Major part of storm possible (with greater 50% likelihood ) to start Wednesday 26 march end 27 march thurs Then another storm to hit California last couple days of march 30th 31st.
major dumping of WATER starting northern tip of California well into BC .
8 plus inches of water expected shoreline OR/CA border and at least half all the way into BC
mammoth expecting flurries all week with a foot or two at the lodge (9500 plus feet) by 2 April
Tahoe area to get at least a foot by 28 March ... One report estimates 4 inches water around Tahoe by 2 APRIL
SLC inch water
CO a 1.5 inches water
West Yellowstone 2.5 inches water
ID sawtooth 3.5 in H2O
McCall 3.5 in H2O
Whistler 3.5 in H2O
Seattle area 6.5 to 8.0 in H20
Please check temps to see where the snow line starts
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Mammoth update below
Monday AM:
No change to earlier thinking with the timing of the beginning of the precip into the high country early Tuesday evening. Snow Levels crash Tuesday night with snowfall accumulations good enough for a plow expected in the morning 26 mar….then again in the late afternoon.
The big change is in the longer range, with the system for Sunday coming in earlier now and not splitting like before. The Sierra stands a good chance of a better outcome snowfall wise Sunday with another system hot on its heals Monday into Tuesday. April Roars in like a Lion?
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.e9SMGWOi.dpuf
Monday AM:
No change to earlier thinking with the timing of the beginning of the precip into the high country early Tuesday evening. Snow Levels crash Tuesday night with snowfall accumulations good enough for a plow expected in the morning 26 mar….then again in the late afternoon.
The big change is in the longer range, with the system for Sunday coming in earlier now and not splitting like before. The Sierra stands a good chance of a better outcome snowfall wise Sunday with another system hot on its heals Monday into Tuesday. April Roars in like a Lion?
- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.e9SMGWOi.dpuf
Right now ESTIMATES state 6 plus inches water from TAHOE TO SUSANVILLE happening now to April 1st.
Amount drops off pretty fast south ... east and west Going northeast from Susanville it increases and peaks around SHASTA at 8 inches water dropping now to April 1st.
Estimates state 2 inches water 31 MAR thru 2 April 2 INCHES in a 48 hour period MON-TYues.
Grand 7 day total estimates for now 26 MAR to 2 April
Tahoe area is 8.5 inches H2O
Shasta 9.2 inches H2O
Oregon east 6.0 inches H2O
McCall ID north 4.5 inches H2O to 3.3 inches to BC
West Yellowstone 4.5 inches H2O
SLC 1-2 inches H2O
Colorado 2 inches H2O
Seattle area 5 inches H2O
Amount drops off pretty fast south ... east and west Going northeast from Susanville it increases and peaks around SHASTA at 8 inches water dropping now to April 1st.
Estimates state 2 inches water 31 MAR thru 2 April 2 INCHES in a 48 hour period MON-TYues.
Grand 7 day total estimates for now 26 MAR to 2 April
Tahoe area is 8.5 inches H2O
Shasta 9.2 inches H2O
Oregon east 6.0 inches H2O
McCall ID north 4.5 inches H2O to 3.3 inches to BC
West Yellowstone 4.5 inches H2O
SLC 1-2 inches H2O
Colorado 2 inches H2O
Seattle area 5 inches H2O
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