Next storm 21-24 Feb approaching from the north

[donbrown]

Storm still developing.
Not sure whether it will be warm or cold storm so no estimates as to amount moisture or temps

Depends how low pressure front in Illinois effects high pressure in Nevada and Baja.

Storm is likely to approach from the north in both temperature and moisture

Conclusion as of right now. Snow depths will go higher as you go upstate California. If had to guess it will be a big wet storm ( historically meaning over an inch of moisture)

Wednesday, February 18, 2009 8:08:21 AM



"STORM TOTAL ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN ABOUT 40 INCHES......NOW SOME X'LNT WX THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.....MORE STORMINESS LOOMING BY WEEKS END"

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE:

THE BLUE BIRDS WERE SCREEMING THIS MORNING FORTELLING AN EPIC DAY UP ON THE HILL......WELCOME TO ALL THE BEACH CITY KIDS THAT ARE HERE IN MAMMOTH THIS WEEK!!!

HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THUS A NICE RIDGE WILL PROTECT THE MAMMOTH AREA WITH BEAUTIFUL DAYS AND COLD CRISP NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT OFF SHORE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING AT ABOUT 140W (1500MI) WEST OF MAMMOTH AS ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BUILDING AN UPPER HIGH OVER US THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPSTREAM, THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE HEADED RIGHT INTO THE CUT OFF, EITHER RELOADING THE SYSTEM OR ACTING AS A KICKER. THE BIG QUESTING THIS MORNING IS WHEN THE BIG TROF IN THE EAST WILL MOVE OFF SHORE, CREATING AN EXCESSIVE WAVE LENGTH AND ALLOWING THE CURRENT OFF-SHORE STORM TO PUSH INLAND. GUESSTIMATES ARE THAT IT WILL BE A BIT LATER THEN SOONER SO THAT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE TOO BAD WEATHER WISE.

THE IMPORTANT MESSAGE IS THAT ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEW UPCOMING PATTERN WILL HAVE A RICH SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...EXACTLY HOW THE MOISTURE GET ENTRAINED AND HOW IT ALL COMES TOGETHER IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. POTENTIALLY, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE SIERRA.


THE DWEEBER...............

 

[donbrown]

STODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40
Several inches of rain expected 22-25 February Mon - Wednesday.
Heavy type snow.
Not sure what elevation will be rain / snow. Storm becomes colder to the north.
Rare weather pattern forming is called MARGARITA CONNECTION (whatever that means) lots and lots of moisture from down south.
Expect more water than last storm but think heavier snow will cause lower snow levels but still measured in feet.


Thursday, February 19, 2009 8:28:57 AM

JUST A QUICK UPDATE THIS THURSDAY MORNING:

IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S......LOWS IN THE TEENS AND EVENTUALLY 20S BY THE WEEKEND.

I THINK THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE PRETTY EXCITING FROM A METEOROLOGY POINT OF VIEW. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SOME YEARS...WE ARE BEING SET UP WITH A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROF AT 140W THAT WILL BECOME DEEPLY POSITIVELY TILT AND WILL TAP A RICH SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITZ. THIS "MARGARITA CONNECTION" COULD PUT A GOOD DENT IN OUR DROUGHT SITUATION NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF SHORE FOR ABOUT 5 DAYS THEN KICKING INLAND. AFTERWORDS.....THERE WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF ENERGY FROM SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS...AS THEY RELOAD THE LONG WAVE. THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC THE NEXT 14 DAYS!

SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE A LOT HIGHER WITH THIS PATTERN AND SNOW TO H20 RATIOS A LOT LOWER. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL, IF IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW IN TOWN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS THE UPPER LOW COMES IN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY INTO NORTHERN CA. THE CENTRAL SIERRA COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

STAY TUNED!!!

 

[donbrown]

Just looked at a dozen or so SNOTEL stations and air temps went to 40F today .... all the way to 10,000 feet

Snow surface temps went above 32F as well.

Snow levels dropped a foot or two.

The snow is settling !!!!

 

[donbrown]

2 storms for 22 - 26 February. First storm smaller than second storm. Second storm like to cause severe flooding (several inches warm storm north half state) First storm moisture from South America and second from South America and Hawaii. Margatita gets a pineapple and hangs with Jack Frost. About a 50% chance part of 2nd storm will make it to KERNVILLE , 90% for CHESTER , TRUCKEE , and 70% for Mammoth Lakes.

Snow levels for Mono county to 7500-8000 feet and levels decreasing as you go north.

Friday, February 20, 2009 6:27:46 AM

WET PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND....MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT RIVER SYSTEMS LATER NEXT WEEK WITH STORM TWO......SIERRA SNOW PACK IS ABLE TO ABSORB A LOT OF THE UPCOMING RAINFALL WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.....HERE IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY IT WILL GET WET WITH THE SNOW LEVELS GOING UP TO ABOUT 7500 TO 8000 FEET. STILL TOO EARLY TO ASSESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS MARGARITA CONNECTION JUST GETTING ESTABLISHED NOW....TIMING AND ONSET AND PEAK FOR FIRST SYSTEM LATER....IF THE EURO IS CORRECT THE MARGARITA TAP WILL SHIFT WEST AND BE BLENDED WITH THE SMELL OF PINEAPPLES.

POTENTIALLY.....WE COULD GET A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS....WITH SOME BREAKS....ACCORDING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

ENJOY ALL THE GREAT SKIING AND BOARDING NOW......

 

[donbrown]

Moisture of this storm is right at Eureka / Fort Bragg CA with some moderate rainfall displayed on radar 9AM . First Storm (more precipitation as you go north) Late today early Sunday first a warm storm with initial snow levels at 8000 feet dropping to 7000 feet by end of Monday. Total rainfall 1/2 inch equating to 1-2 feet above 8000 feet.

Second storm will be bigger with MORE SOUTHERN IMPACT now set for Friday

Saturday, February 21, 2009 9:02:27 AM

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE:


SUBTROPICAL TAP NOW ESTABLISHED....MAIN FOCUS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA....MAMMOTH COULD STILL GET A FOOT OR TWO OVER THE CREST BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH .50 TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE TOWN BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW LATER MONDAY MORNING.

CAUTION.....THE TOWN HAS MANY SNOW LOADED ROOFS....THE WARMER WEATHER WITH RAINFALL PROSPECTS WILL CREATE A SLIDE HAZARD, SUNDAY AND MONDAY BELOW SUCH ROOFS. DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY BELOW THESE ROOFS.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ENJOY ONE MORE NICE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS....QUASI PINEAPPLE CONNECTION NOW ESTABLISHED WITH POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF CENTERED NEAR 140 WEST. THERE ARE SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY SPINNING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE VORT NOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA....THIS WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE CURRENT UPPER LOW WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING TO 520DM WITHIN THE SYSTEM AT 140WEST. THE LONG WAVE IS TOO FAR WEST TO BULLS-EYE CENTRAL CA. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO WASHINGTON STATE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.....SO THE SYSTEM WILL PRETTY MUCH MISS SOUTHERN CA ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT UP-STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA QPF WISE. THE GFS HAD A DECENT SURFACE LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA FRIDAY. AGAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL FAVORS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS NEXT SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN SO-CAL.

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION, THAT THE LONG WAVE MAY BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AGAIN...STRETCHING BACK INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD RETURN COLD WET WEATHER TO MOST OF THE GOLDEN STATE.....BUT THAT IS A LONG WAY AWAY FOR ANY MODEL SKILL!

BACK TO THE PRESENT...RAINFALL IN TOWN SHOULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TONIGHT.....THEN PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM WITH THE SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 8000 FEET.....THEN LOWERING TO 7500 BY MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING AND DOWN TO 7000 BY AFTERNOON.

PS:

THE SUN IS STILL SPOTLESS!
CHECK THIS OUT!

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

 

[donbrown]

Saturday, February 21, 2009 5:28:33 PM

SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE:

NO CHANGES......WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN TOWN SUNDAY. SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TOWN AND BEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN IS WET FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS WITH BREAKS NOW AND THEN.

THE MAMMOTH CREST CAN STILL PICK UP A FOOT OR TWO BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DWEEBER>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[donbrown]

Nice pine apple express (from Hawaii) satellite shot

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx

Notice the next potential storm from Alaska forming just north of Hawaii?

Below

See the high pressure system keeping the present storm to the north half of the state?

Also the high pressure keeps the moisture in the clouds ... somebody else is gonna get a real dumping from the moisture not falling in SOCAL

http://www.intellicast.com/National/ForecastToday.aspx

 

[donbrown]

Low pressure system on top of Lake Tahoe.

Anybody getting snow up there??

 

[donbrown]

Moisture starting around Mammoth Lake and goes north. High pressure in SOCAL keeping moisture from falling.

Snow levels above 8000 and rain below.

New low pressure weather front is just off OREGON and giving Washington water. To hit northern maybe Centrl California by Wednesday.

Snow in Mammoth about 6 inches next 24 hours ... then a sunny Tuesday then Storm Wednesday. Likelihood of storm last weekend of February but not sure.

Cold air staying in north half of state.



Monday, February 23, 2009 9:02:11 AM

"UPPER LOW NOW CHARGING TOWARD WASHINGTON STATE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE THE CENTRAL SIERRA THIS MORNING....MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY"

AT OF 8:00AM MONDAY...MAMMOTH MT AT THE MAIN LODGE HAD PICKED UP 16 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 2.00 INCHES OF WATER IN IT. LATEST RFC QPF PUTS ANOTHER .5 INCHES OF H20 OVER THE CREST BY THIS EVENING. SO AT 8:1 RATIOS THAT ABOUT ANOTHER 4 INCHES TODAY AT THE MAIN LODGE.

SHOWERY WX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE FEED DIMINISHES.....SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND SO A NICE DAY EXPECTED.
NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SW FLOW PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY FOR MORE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL....THEN????? THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHETHER WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER STORM BEFORE THE WEEKEND.

STAY TUNED>>>>>>>>>>>>>


THE SUN IS STILL SPOTLESS!
STILL WAITING FOR SUNSPOT
CYCLE 24!

 

[pigbristles]

weather

its been warm and raining in so. oregon. rain on all the passes tonight and tomorrow.

 

[brahm]

it was coming down good when i woke up this morning.

 

[700 turbo]

down here in Troy montana it is nothing but rain, but im hoping up high that it is just dumping