New storm 2 plus feet around 27-30 NOV

[donbrown]

Most of this storm done for Cali 22 NOV

New storm possible 27-30 Nov ... 2 feet

Mammoth Mountain Reports 4 to 6 inches of fresh snowfall overnight WED…..another 4 to 6 inches likely by Thursday…….Main portion of storm to move in late today……Snowfall expected Tonight into Thursday morning then showery weather into Thursday Night with Upslope Snowfall…..


Wednesday November 20, 2013


Posted at 9:04 am by Howard
.

12:30pm Update: Longer Range

Longer Range 12Z Wednesday ECMWF model still has storm system moving toward the South Central West Coast. Looks to be a potentially good precip producer for Mono County Southward beginning Wednesday afternoon the 27th into Thursday. There after system may tap into good moisture pool for significant rains for SC. More later……..



An impressive 4 to 6 inches of snowfall occurred on Mammoth Mountain last night. Not from the stand point that 4 to 6 inches is a lot to fall on Old Woolly, but in that it was mostly orographically induced. Mammoth Weather.com picked up only .05 hundreds……so a lot of Topo Lift was occurring last night to get that much snow! In that the main dynamics is still yet to come, we could reasonably see another 4 to 6 by Thursday, as the meat of the lift comes in later today into tonight. Colder air following moving into the area later today and tonight is a plus for the snow pushers in town. Nice to see a baroclinic leaf forming in back of the wave off the coast of SFO at 8:45am, Wish we could get some of that! Maybe we will late this afternoon. I will have another update later today as the rest of the new guidance comes in. PS Mono Wind event possible for West Side of the Sierra this weekend….Not to worry for Mammoth just a Chilly breezy weekend

Longer Range: Development of Mid Latitude upper low with eventual subtropical fetch for the offering……

This may morph into quite the wet system for Southern California between Thanksgiving and the end of month……

ECMWF has areas of 2.00 inches that following weekend….


Stay Tuned…………….
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.thZZ3HSp.dpuf

 

[donbrown]

midnight AM 21 NOV Nevada is getting lots of snow right now.

Snowing good in NV, sparsely in CAs and some in AZ , UT, CO, OK, NM , TX KS , MI

Gonna stay kind of cold thru weekend then new storm 27-30 NOV which may bring 2 plus feet central and SOCAL

South of Mammoth !

 

[donbrown]

Elko come in Elko radar shows you getting snow now fgor past 24 hours.

Please advise !

 

[kylant]

2 feet??? yeah right, i’ll believe when I see it. we haven’t seen anything close to 2 foot storms yet, even though there has been lots of forecasts for such

 

[PowderCrew]

Your elko advisor.... Is in CALIFORNIA! Most recent report matched Mammoth, there was around 6" @ 8500' in the Rubies. A large cell tracked north of elko, haven't gotten any word back yet on accumulation there.

 

[donbrown]

Your elko advisor.... Is in CALIFORNIA! Most recent report matched Mammoth, there was around 6" @ 8500' in the Rubies. A large cell tracked north of elko, haven't gotten any word back yet on accumulation there.

Okay thank you

MAybe some tonight? 20-70% chance for 4-8 inches tonight.

 

[donbrown]

Storm for 27-30 November now looking to dump mostly out in the OCEAN.


Posted at 9:21 am by Howard
.

Saturday AM Update:

This will be brief…

The Upper Cut-Off has kicked inland along the Baja/CA border and is moving quickly into AZ. Cloudiness will be quicker to more out today and tonight. Fair weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with a slow warm up. Next system will not be anything to write home about. It will weaken rapidly as it approaches the Southern CA coast line. According to the EC most of the precip will be confined to the coastal sections of LosAngeles…..Not the MTNs. However before it approaches the south land, some light snowfall may occur over the Southern Sierra Thanksgiving. Mammoth MT looks to receive a glancing blow from this system with a few inches possible of snow possible.

More Later….and sooner if this changes….

 

[donbrown]

The thanksgiving storm predicting 2 plus feet a week ago will now provide snow flurries.

below duplicate post to more recent storm

Weakening system over the southland may give some snowshowers Thanksgiving day and night….Cold Arctic System makes its way into the Pacific Northwest with Arctic air to Accompany….Snowfall may begin as early as Monday for the Mammoth Area…..


Wednesday November 27, 2013


Posted at 6:25 am by Howard
.

Wednesday AM Update:

The Thanksgiving holiday weather looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers both during the day and night. Daytime highs in the 40s and nights in the teens and twenties for Mammoth. The rest of the weekend look party cloudy with little temperature change. Winds will be light……

Last several runs (Tuesday and Wednesday) of the ECMWF and GFS still have quite the powerhouse coming into the pacific northwest early next week. However, an adjustment eastward in the pattern suggests that the upper center is likely to remain over land now and not out over the sea. Nevertheless, plenty of upper jet energy will bow out off shore and then into the Sierra next week, so still a good possibility of significant snowfall. There are even some signs of a tropical tap later next week. The Key on all this is this. Recent models run of the GFS has the upper ridge axes at 140west through Alaska. The ECMWF has the axis about 145 west. The 140W longitude line for California is Critical. Often times when a long wave highly amped ridge is east of 140W…Storms take a track over land, where by if the ridge axis is west of 140W the track is offshore. The ECMWF is still west of 140W, however, not by much. So a lot will depend upon the eventual placement of the upper ridge when it sets up next week for how much snowfall we get. The Dweebs have noted that the ECMWF is a better global model when looking out a week then the GFS….

This is an evolving situation in which it will probably not be known, how much snowfall will occur until Sunday for the up coming week. There is no doubt that we will get snowfall. The question is how much and….there is plenty potential for Footage IE 1 to 3 feet over the crest……The Dweebs will not update again until Sunday…….

Have a Great Thanksgiving and Travel Safe!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..
.- See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.zjfjHtbR.dpuf